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Abstract: Transnistria, a sliver of land on the east bank of the river Nistru, broke away from the rest of Moldova in 1990. Although there was fighting after that, there have been no fatalities since 1992. This is not really a conflict: it is a stand-off which benefits the business interests of those who are close to ruling elites, and suits some external players.
Transnistria has little prospect of being recognised, even by Russia. Meanwhile Moldova has little hope of eventual EU membership while the Transnistrian problem remains. To escape this stalemate, Moldova and Transnistria need to find a solution. Moldova needs to show Transnistrians that a resolution will be good for them, just as the EU works with Russia to show that a solution does not harm Russia.
This study is timely in that it comes at a moment when Moldova is reaffirming its EU perspective, while elections in Transnistria may also presage some change. The problem of Transnistria is now on the borders of the EU: Transnistria is the EU's problem. A German-EU initiative in 2010 sought to address the Transnistrian issue at a strategic level, engaging the key external player, Russia.
This study brought together focus groups of ordinary people both in Transnistria and in the rest of Moldova. It is the first such study. The focus groups provide non-elite input, important when some in the elite have a personal interest in maintaining the status quo. The focus group perspectives have been reinforced by interviews with politicians and experts in Chisinau, Tiraspol and Berlin. The study is in three sections: a conflict analysis, an examination of the players, and themes from the focus groups. At the end, the report provides detailed policy and programme recommendations to the European Union.
The People’s Peacemaking Perspectives project is a joint initiative implemented by Conciliation Resources and Saferworld and financed under the European Commission’s Instrument for Stability. The project provides European Union institutions with analysis and recommendations based on the opinions and experiences of local people in a range of countries and regions affected by fragility and violent conflict.
Abstract: Black Sea region countries have diverse political systems, ranging from developed democracies
to authoritarian regimes. Communist pasts and a lack of democratic experience have stalled or
reversed democratisation processes in many cases. Flawed legal systems and a public distrust
in institutions have been paired with growing executive power in many countries. Increasing
inequality and unresolved conflicts undermine pro-democratic reforms as well. The region’s West and South, including Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Turkey, contain relatively
stable democracies. Reforms in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova have met with only limited
success, hampered by conflicts with neighbours or separatist regions. Russia has shown substantial
re-centralisation of power with authoritarian traits. The Ukraine’s post-Orange Revolution momentum
has been lost, but democratic procedures and the culture of an open society have taken root. Elections in Greece, Turkey, Romania and the Ukraine are generally free and fair, but show serious
flaws elsewhere in the region. Outside of Greece, political parties are weak. Parliaments in the West
and South hold some power, but often show functional weaknesses, while elsewhere executives –
often with authoritarian leanings – are little restrained by legislatures or opposition parties. With
the exception of Turkey and Greece, judicial corruption or lack of independence is common. Bribery and corruption is a problem across the region. In the post-communist states, this has
undermined state legitimacy. Increasing inequality is a pressing problem throughout, also
threatening regime credibility. The economic crisis may further undermine the attraction of
Western democratic values, contributing to poverty and social unrest. Civil society is hampered by a lack of democratic tradition. Outside of Turkey and Greece, domestic
NGOs are scarce or face substantial state resistance. Ethnic minority issues and a persistent brain
drain remain problematic, but a new technocratic generation offers the promise of change.
The EU has made numerous bilateral and multilateral overtures to Black Sea countries, but has
not shown a clear regional policy. It risks appearing to prioritise a stable energy supply over
true transformation. US interest has been focused on democratisation as well as regional energy
In seeking to enhance democratic transformation, civil society groups should be given broad
practical support. Aid to states should be linked to democratic reforms, and combined with
substantial assistance for institutional and administrative capacity building. Judicial reforms and a
stronger rule of law will be critical in stabilising the region’s political and economic systems. The
EU in particular needs to develop a coherent regional policy, which must include cooperation with
Russia and Turkey.
Abstract: The U.S. military must plan for a wide range of security cooperation missions, ranging from
“normal” peacetime security cooperation activities—such as building the long-term institutional
and operational capabilities and capacity of key partners and allies, establishing and
deepening relationships between the U.S. and partner militaries, and securing access to critical
areas overseas—to managing quasi-operational efforts, such as managing foreign internal
defense within the overall foreign policy objectives of the United States. Security cooperation,
in the form of noncombat military-to-military activities, is a useful part of the military’s toolkit
in conflict prevention. Although security cooperation requires a relatively small investment
with respect to the overall efforts of the U.S. military, it can be a key enabler of the success
of future U.S. military missions by shaping the environment and laying the groundwork for
future coalition and stability operations with allies and partners.
Current world conditions both create significant demands for U.S. security cooperation
programs and deplete available resources to carry out these missions. The wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan are occupying the regular, reserve, National Guard, and Special Forces trainers
and advisors who would normally be called on to train and advise military counterparts. Furthermore,
U.S. allies, who often complement the efforts of U.S. advisors and trainers, are also
stretched thin by their own deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. It is important to consider the context in which security cooperation takes place. Security
assistance and cooperation are only components of U.S. efforts to assist and influence countries.
Abstract: This research paper focuses on the European Union funding priorities in four Eastern European countries neighbouring the EU (Belarus, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine) for refugee protection, migration management and border reinforcement, which has been completed by the Eastern Europe project funded by the EU's Aeneas programme. The research was undertaken from Autumn 2007 to Spring 2008, with a final update in November 2008. The focus of the research is on EU's funding programmes in 2004-2007.
Abstract: At least 71 journalists were killed across the globe in 2009, the Committee to Protect Journalists announced Tuesday, the largest annual toll in the 30 years the group has been keeping track.
Twenty-nine of those deaths came in a single, politically motivated massacre of reporters and others in the Philippines last November, the worst known episode for journalists, the committee said.
But there were other worrisome trends. The two nations with the highest number of journalists incarcerated — China had 24 journalists imprisoned at the end of 2009 and Iran had 23 — were particularly harsh in taking aim at bloggers and others using the Internet. The number jailed in Iran has since jumped to 47, the committee said. Of the 71 confirmed deaths, 51 were murders, the committee said. The report noted that 24 additional deaths of journalists remained under investigation to determine if they were related to the journalists’ work. Previously, the highest number of journalists killed in a single year was 67, in 2007, when violence in Iraq was raging.
Abstract: Nations in Transit 2009 is the 13th edition of Freedom House’s comprehensive,
comparative study of democratic development from Central Europe
to Eurasia. It examines 29 countries, including the newest independent
state in the region, Kosovo. The overarching conclusion is that 2008 was a very
difficult year for democracy: scores declined for 18 of the 29 countries, and a record
8 countries are now in the “consolidated authoritarian regimes” category. Worrying
trends highlighted in the previous three editions of Nations in Transit became even
more pronounced in 2008, while positive trends lost momentum.
A number of events illustrate the intensification of these negative trends. In
2008, for the first time in the 21st century, a war erupted between two states covered
in Nations in Transit. The so-called “August War” between Georgia and Russia served
as a wake-up call for those who believed that the democratic decline observed in
the region over the last few years would not have a detrimental effect on security
and stability. Highly problematic elections accentuated the region’s troubles. Two
petro-states, Azerbaijan (which recorded the largest democratic decline in this
edition of Nations in Transit) and the Russian Federation, held uncompetitive
presidential elections in which the result was predetermined. Armenia’s presidential
poll was marred by lethal postelection violence. And the government in Georgia
used administrative resources to seriously influence that country’s hotly contested
presidential and parliamentary elections. Nations in Transit 2009 documents
how journalists were once again at risk throughout the region, from Croatia to
Uzbekistan, and national governments were challenged by corruption scandals, as
was the case in Bulgaria; by divisive ethnic politics, as in Bosnia and Herzegovina;
by parliamentary boycotts, as in Montenegro; or by infighting and outright
irresponsibility among political leaders, as in Ukraine.
Abstract: Russia's military intervention in Georgia in August 2008 sent a shock wave across the post-Soviet space, particularly the republics to the west and south of Russia. In December 2008, the European Union formalized the Eastern Partnership initiative, directed at Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. In order to understand the impact of this war both of Russia's bilateral relations with these countries and on the Eastern Partnership area as a whole, this article analyzes the reactions of these former Soviet republics to the Russian offensive. Three types of response are observed: keeping distance from Russia; maintaining a balance between Moscow and the West; and finally, changing course (from rapprochment to keeping distance and vice versa) vis-a-vis the former center of the Soviet Empire.
Abstract: Ukraine will hold presidential elections in January 2010 that are likely to give the country a new president. Viktor Yushchenko, elected in January 2005 on the crest of the Orange Revolution, has only 3-4 percent support making it impossible for him to win a second term. He would therefore follow Ukraine’s first President Leonid Kravchuk who also only served one term in 1991-1994.
The story of how Yushchenko came to power with high domestic and international expectations that he largely failed to fulfill will be a fascinating area for future research by historians, political scientists and sociologists. This article provides an initial overview of the Yushchenko presidency; first considering whether it was part of a ’second wave’ of democratic breakthroughs from 1996-2004 (the ‘first wave’ being in 1989-1991) and then analyzing three factors that facilitated the Orange Revolution.
Abstract: The joint declaration by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin, and Transnistria leader Igor Smirnov, signed in Moscow on March 18 (EDM, March 20, 25, 26), is serving Smirnov well as a negotiation-breaker. Citing points in that declaration, Smirnov is now calling openly for marginalizing or bypassing Western participants in the negotiating process, which Moscow and Tiraspol -or the latter fronting for the former- had already brought to a deadlock.
Tiraspol has drawn even more encouragement from the Moscow meeting. Interviewed in Nezavisimaya Gazeta afterward, Smirnov revealed that he (on a par with Voronin) held a 40-minute personal meeting with Medvedev in Moscow, following which he concluded: "Things are better under Medvedev than under Putin" for Transnistria. From that meeting, Smirnov has inferred that Medvedev supports not only the perpetuation of Russia's military presence in Transnistria, but turning the area into a Kaliningrad Oblast-type entity as "Transnistria-Russian region."
Based on his meeting with the Russian president, Smirnov expects the U.S. to tolerate or passively acquiesce in that Russian policy: "We are counting on the change in relations between Washington and Moscow. In one of the documents signed under Obama, the Americans virtually recognize Transnistria as a Russian zone of influence. That is to say, Russia's right to oversee what happens in former Soviet republics is recognized." Whether deliberately or inadvertently, Smirnov's words challenge Washington to deny the Medvedev-Smirnov version and set the record straight.
The U.S. has noticeably reduced the level of its interest and participation in the negotiations on the Transnistria conflict during the last year or so. Formerly represented at the level of Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Washington has informally ceded to the European Union the leading role on the Western side in these negotiations.
Abstract: A Survey and Analysis of Border Management and Border Apprehension Data from 20 States.
With a Special Survey on the Use of Counterfeit Documents.
Based on the contributions of the border services of 20 Central and Eastern European states, the 2006 Yearbook again provides its valuable overview and analysis of irregular migration trends in the region. Over the past ten years the annual Yearbook on Illegal Migration, Human Smuggling and Trafficking in Central and Eastern Europe has come to be regarded as an authoritative source of information on recent border trends and in particular on the phenomena of illegal migration, human smuggling and trafficking. The annual Yearbook covers the most recent trends in illegal migration and human smuggling in the region, including long-term trends in border apprehensions, shifts in source, transit and destination countries, demographic characteristics of irregular migrants, the relationship between legal and illegal border crossings, new developments in the methods of border crossings and document abuse and on removals of irregular migrants. In addition, this year’s edition for the first time features a Special Survey on the use of counterfeit documents for illegal migration purposes. This Survey is based on the contributions received from document specialists or Special Units dealing with document security in the countries under review and provides the first comprehensive overview and analysis of patterns and trends in the use of counterfeit documents for illegal migration purposes in Central and Eastern Europe.
Abstract: Sous-jacente depuis le printemps, évidente depuis l’éclatement de la coalition orange en septembre, la crise politique vient de connaître de nouveaux rebondissements en Ukraine. Proche du Président Viktor Iouchtchenko, le Président de la Verkhovna Rada (le Parlement) Arsenii Iatseniouk vient d’être destitué au terme d’un vote houleux. 233 députés principalement issus des partis d’opposition (parti des Régions, parti communiste) se sont prononcés pour le limogeage de M. Iatseniouk, à laquelle s’opposaient le bloc Ioulia Timochenko et l’essentiel des députés de Notre Ukraine, le parti présidentiel.
Abstract: Though almost every Central Asian state is engaged to some degree in a
discourse on security sector reform, democratic oversight of the security
sector, and civil-military relations, it would be incorrect to assume that
the joint efforts of European, Transatlantic, regional and national actors
(including the media, civil society and academia) have led to
homogenous or at least sustainable progress. The added challenge of
joining the global coalition in the ‘fight against terrorism’ has
accelerated development in some departments of the security sector. It
has, however, at the same time led to a standstill if not a backlash in the
evolution of a culture of human and civil rights, not to mention
international humanitarian law. As security sector reform unfolds in
Central Asia, human rights and will need to triumph over all supposed
justifications to curb them. Security Sector Reform is not about making
Abstract: Russia's invasion and continued occupation of Georgia was the beginning of a disturbing turn in Russia's national security and foreign policy. The primary goal of Russian foreign policy is now its reemergence as a super power and control over its former Soviet neighbors. Countries seeking greater ties with the West are in danger of more direct Russian intervention. In particular, the Crimea is Ukraine's weak spot and may be Russia's next target. Perhaps the most urgent question in the world affairs today is whether Russia's invasion and continuing occupation of Georgia was a singular event. Or was it the onset of a distinct, and profoundly disturbing, national security and foreign policy agenda?
Much as one would like to cling to the former theory, the evidence favors the latter. A European delegation led by French President Nicolas Sarkozy did manage this week to get assurances that Russian troops would withdraw from Georgia (excepting Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose independence Moscow says is "irrevocable"). But ultimately, this short war is likely to be remembered as the beginning of a decisive shift in Russia's national priorities. The most compelling of these new priorities today seems to be recovery of the assets lost in the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, which Vladimir Putin has called the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century."
How does Russia achieve this goal? By dominating the domestic politics and, more importantly, economic- and foreign-policy orientation, of the former Soviet republics. Anything considered antithetical to Russia's interests, as interpreted by the current Kremlin leadership, must be discarded--be it democratization, oil and gas exports that bypass Russia, and, especially, the membership in the Western organizations such as the European Union and NATO.
Abstract: A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 17 nations finds that majorities in only nine of them believe that al Qaeda was behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States. In no country does a majority agree on another possible perpetrator, but in most countries significant minorities cite the US government itself and, in a few countries, Israel. These responses were given spontaneously to an open-ended question that did not offer response options. On average, 46 percent say that al Qaeda was behind the attacks while 15 percent say the US government, seven percent Israel, and seven percent some other perpetrator. One in four say they do not know. WPO_911_Sep08_graph.jpgGiven the extraordinary impact the 9/11 attacks have had on world affairs, it is remarkable that seven years later there is no international consensus about who was behind them," comments Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org.
Abstract: This bulletin contains information about Amnesty International’s main concerns in Europe and
Central Asia between July and December 2007. Not every country in the region is reported on; only
those where there were significant developments in the period covered by the bulletin, or where
Amnesty International (AI) took specific action.
A number of individual country reports have been issued on the concerns featured in this bulletin.
References to these are made under the relevant country entry. In addition, more detailed
information about particular incidents or concerns may be found in Urgent Actions and News
Service Items issued by AI.
This bulletin is published by AI every six months.
Abstract: U.S. policymakers have made securing and maintaining foreign contributions
to the stabilization and reconstruction of Iraq a major priority since the preparation
period for the launch of Operation Iraqi Freedom in March 2003. This report
highlights and discusses important changes in financial and personnel contributions
from foreign governments to Iraq since 2003.
To date, foreign donors have pledged an estimated $16.4 billion in grants and
loans for Iraq reconstruction, with most major pledges originating at a major donors'
conference in Madrid, Spain, in October 2003. However, only a small part of the
pledges have been committed or disbursed to the World Bank and United Nations
Development Group Trust Funds for Iraq. The largest non-U.S. pledges of grants
have come from Japan, the European Commission, the United Kingdom, Canada,
South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates. The World Bank, the International
Monetary Fund, Japan, and Saudi Arabia have pledged the most loans and export
Currently, 33 countries including the United States have some level of troops
on the ground in Iraq or supporting Iraq operations from nearby locations. Those
forces are working under the rubric of one of several organizations — the
Multi-National Force-Iraq (MNF-I), the NATO Training Mission-Iraq (NTM-I); or
the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). Currently, the largest
troop contributors, in addition to the United States, are the United Kingdom, Georgia,
Australia, South Korea, and Poland. Some of these key contributors have announced
their intention to reduce or withdraw their forces from Iraq during 2008. The total
number of non-U.S. coalition troop contributions has declined since the early
stabilization efforts, as other countries have withdrawn their contingents or
substantially reduced their size.
Abstract: Alors que les chefs d'Etat et de gouvernement européens s'apprêtent à entériner,
sous présidence française, un nouveau projet ambitieux de coopération avec
les pays de la rive Sud de la Méditerranée, la mer Noire s'impose comme le
second bassin maritime fondamental pour l'Union européenne. Initiative proposée
par la Commission européenne en avril 2007, la synergie de la mer Noire
reflète l'importance stratégique que revêt pour l'Union le Sud-Est du continent
après l'adhésion de la Roumanie et de la Bulgarie. Cette synergie s'inscrit également
dans le cadre de la " Neue Ostpolitik " souhaitée par la présidence allemande
(à l'origine de l'initiative), qui entend donner une nouvelle impulsion aux
politiques européennes à l'Est.
Abstract: Près de 90% des nouveaux diagnostics d’infection à VIH enregistrés en 2006 dans la région l’ont été dans deux pays, la Fédération de Russie (66%) et l’Ukraine (21%). La prévalence nationale du VIH chez l’adulte en Ukraine, estimée à 1,4% [0,8%–4,3%] en 2005, est plus élevée que dans n’importe quel pays d’Europe ou d’Asie centrale et le nombre annuel de diagnostics d’infection à VIH a plus que doublé depuis 2001. L’épidémie de VIH continue de croître en Fédération de Russie mais à un rythme plus lent qu’au cours de la fin des années 1990. Le nombre de diagnostics nouveaux d’infection à VIH signalés augmente aussi en Azerbaïdjan, en Géorgie, au Kazakhstan, au Kirghizistan, en Ouzbékistan (où
l’on rencontre actuellement l’épidémie la plus importante d’Asie centrale), en République de Moldova et au Tadjikistan.
Abstract: Agacés d’être perçus comme une menace, les États de la rive sud de la Méditerranée risquent d’opposer une fin de non-recevoir à la présidence française de l’Union européenne si celle-ci s’aventurait un peu trop ostensiblement sur ce terrain. Mais c’est bien de cela dont il s’agit, en partie, derrière ce vaste chantier.
Perverti et trop souvent invoqué de manière irréfléchie, le concept de sécurité reste néanmoins un objectif dont découle la réalisation concomitante des autres aspects du projet de la présidence française. L’idée de la sécurité n’existe pas sans les usages dont elle fait l’objet. Si la définition minimaliste de la
sécurité est « l’absence de menaces, ou de craintes de menaces, sur les valeurs centrales », reste à déterminer ce à quoi l’on se réfère : aux États membres, à l’Union méditerranéenne en tant que telle, aux individus qui composent les différentes populations ? Par ailleurs, à quelles menaces s’agit-il de faire
face : les menaces militaires et/ou non militaires (économiques, environnementales, pertes d’identité…) ? Bien qu’elles puissent apparaître comme le fruit d’une construction intellectuelle sans fondement concret, ces questions sont au coeur du projet d’Union de la Méditerranée comme elles
ont été le fondement des multiples initiatives de part et d’autre de la « mare
nostrum ». L’absence d’entente entre les parties prenantes sur l’étendue que doit couvrir ce volet risque de faire de l’Union méditerranéenne, au mieux une construction institutionnelle parmi d’autres, au pire un échec de plus dans cette région du monde, avec les conséquences humaines que l’on devine.
Abstract: This report on the situation for refugees, asylum seekers and internally displaced
persons in Belarus, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine in 2006 has been written by
national refugee-assisting NGOs in each country. The reports have been edited but no
substantial changes have been made to their content as reported by the agencies
The report has been produced as part of the European Council on Refugees and
Exiles' Programme "The Protection of Refugees, Asylum Seekers and Forced
Migrants", which is generously funded by the European Union Aeneas programme.
In each country section, NGOs cover relevant legislative changes, the refugee status
determination procedure, case law, returns, vulnerable groups and integration.
From the information provided by NGOs it is clear that 2006 was a challenging year
for refugees, asylum seekers and migrants living in Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine and
the Russian Federation. In Russia and Ukraine NGOs report restricted access to
asylum procedures, violations of the international principle of non-refoulement,
detention of asylum seekers because of a lack of documentation at different stages of
the refugee status determination procedure and increasing incidents of racism and
xenophobia. In all four countries the economic situation or effects of government
legislation mean that there are serious barriers to integration for refugees.
Abstract: America's new allies in Central and Eastern Europe have been struggling with defense reform since the end of the Cold War. Only recently since the Orange Revolution has Ukraine's national political and military leadership seriously engaged the process of radical and comprehensive defense reform. This monograph applies the various roadmaps for reform developed in the postcommunist states of Central European states to the emerging Ukrainian case. The author draws upon this mixed picture to suggest a framework focused on key areas in need of reform as well as key conditions that facilitate the achievement of reform objectives. The result is a richly developed monograph revealing Ukraine's main strengths as well as obstacles limiting the improvement of its military capabilities. Ukraine's interests in the East and West, along with the reality of its divided society, shape the outcomes to date and constrain the future of its Euro-Atlantic orientation.
Abstract: As NATO has moved from being a primarily military alliance to seeking more political roles, it has become pertinent to consider its impact on democratisation. At first glance, it might seem incongruent even to deliberate on the democracy promotion relevance of an essentially military organisation. But, NATO's successive enlargements have often hinged on the
fulfilment of democratic preconditions in aspirant members, while technical assistance provided under the Partnership for Peace (PfP) and other programmes has increasingly focused on the reform of civil-military relations. Assessment is consequently warranted of whether NATO has come to play any positive role in
encouraging democratisation across different regions, or whether its impact on political liberalisation has been either marginal or even negative. This paper argues that support for democracy has increasingly infused NATO policies, but that the organisation's role in democracy promotion is circumscribed by strategic considerations; most often an indirect side effect of
other aims; and most relevant to the niche area of defence reform.
Abstract: Hate crimes are on the rise in many parts of Europe, according to Human Rights First's 2007 Hate Crimes Survey, a report examining hate-driven violence in countries from the Russian Federation and the Central Asian states across Europe to North America.
The report, which focuses primarily on developments in 2006, is being released June 6 to coincide with a meeting on combating discrimination being held in Bucharest by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which comprises 56 nations.
Abstract: In March 2003, a U.S.-led multinational force began operations in Iraq. At that time, 48 nations, identified as a "coalition of the willing," offered political, military, and financial support for U.S. efforts in Iraq, with 38 nations other than the United States providing troops. In addition, international donors met in Madrid in October 2003 to pledge funding for the reconstru#ction of Iraq's infrastructure, which had deteriorated after multiple wars and decades of neglect under the previous regime.
This testimony discusses (1) the troop commitments other countries have made to operations in Iraq, (2) the funding the United States has provided to support other countries' participation in the multinational force, and (3) the financial support international donors have provided to Iraq reconstruction efforts.
Abstract: The collapse of the Orange coalition marked a turning point in Ukraine's political direction. Although it had previously sought closer ties with the West and key institutions such as NATO and the EU, today it's foreign policy orientation is less clear. This collection of European Security Forum papers gathers authoritative views on Ukraine's security outlook, considering its relations with the West and its powerful neighbour, Russia.
An in-depth analysis of the political scene is given by Alexander Bogomolov, shedding light on the threats to Ukraine's democratic development, its NATO debate and the pressing issues of energy supply. In his assessment of Ukraine's security risks, James Sherr argues that the internal condition of Ukraine (particularly it security and defence institutions) and not its foreign policy is the main factor defining the xe2x80x98art of the possible' in its external relationships. Arkady Moshes underscores the argument that the key to Ukraine's strategic security is the continuation of internal reforms, holding that its Western partners should do their best to help promote them. Finally, F. Stephen Larrabee considers whether Ukraine will continue to pursue a policy of Euro-Atlantic integration, including eventual membership in NATO, or if Russian influence over Ukraine's internal and external policies is likely to increase.