This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors ("luck") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification....
June 1, 2011 Crisis States Research Centre Working Papers // London School of Economics // Destin Development Studies Institute
The author examines the city as a site in which the provision of public goods and services for citizens is demanded and provided through the transfer of central state revenues. The relationship between state and citizens is not conceived simply in the relatively passive and limiting terms of welfare delivery, but rather within the broader arena of social rights, understood as a core component of substantive citizenship – an important characteristic of developmental states. The focus of the paper is derived from the recognition that social rights, notably access to land and housing, are of particular importance in cities. Conflicts over the appropriate use of land are more likely to arise in urban areas, and the high value of land combined with its potential to contribute to economic development mean that the state almost inevitably becomes involved in these conflicts. This paper's examination of the spatial aspects of social rights in urban areas gives rise to a discussion of the 'right to the city', and how the denial of this right can create increased tension and destabilisation in the cities of fragile states. The author outlines the theoretical basis for the paper with an examination of social rights and substantive citizenship, illustrated through the case of a housing movement of the urban poor in São Paulo, Brazil. The paper then develops the discussion of the link between social rights and state stability through a reading of a selection of CSRC case studies of cities in fragile states....
January 12, 2011 Institute for British-Irish Studies // University College Dublin
Between April and July of 1994, 800-850 thousand people were slaughtered in
Rwanda, the vast majority of them members of the minority
Tutsi ethnic grouping. The evident intent to wipe out the Tutsi as a people renders
this a clear case of genocide. The genocide occurred despite the existence of a
peace and power sharing agreement (the Arusha Accords) to which all parties to
the conflict had ostensibly subscribed.
This paper addresses the failings of the Arusha peace and power sharing process,
and makes three core arguments. The first argument is that the Arusha process
was more a part of the problem than it was part of any putative solution because it
heightened tensions within élite circles (whose monopoly of state power was
seriously challenged), and provided a channel through which aspirant élites could
pursue their dangerous goals.
However, even more fundamentally, the Arusha process, rooted as it was in power
sharing modalities between various élite and aspirant élite actors, failed to tackle
the most pressing problems of Rwandan society: chronic and worsening poverty;
entrenched and intensifying inequality; the treatment of the poor with contempt; a
pervasive sense of impunity in the context of egregious human rights abuses; and
the oppressive presence of the state in all aspects of social life.
This disastrous cocktail—creating what Uvin calls a situation of "structural
violence" laid the basis for mass participation in the genocide of 1994. The concluding section of the paper examines post-genocide Rwanda and how the
legacy of the Arusha Accords has, amongst other devices, been used to legitimise
new forms of repression at the same time as the abuse and violence inflicted upon
ordinary Rwandans (and their neighbours) has continued. Again, and this is the
third core argument of the paper, a seemingly reasonable political agreement to share power is being co-opted for a very different purpose—to legitimate the
inequitable and oppressive power of a new ruling élite....
July 29, 2010 International Review of the Red Cross
The participation of women in the 1994 Rwandan genocide should be considered in the context of gender relations in pre-genocide Rwandan society. Many ‘ordinary’ women were involved in the genocide but, overall, committed significantly fewer acts of overt violence than men. Owing to the indirect nature of women’s crimes, combined with male ‘chivalry’, women may be under-represented among those pursued for genocide-related crimes, despite the broad conception of complicity in Rwanda’s Gacaca Law. Women in leadership positions played a particularly important role in the genocide, and gendered imagery, including of the ‘evil woman’ or ‘monster’, is often at play in their encounters with the law. While representing a relatively low proportion
of genocide-related detainees compared with men (less than 6%), it is
impossible to understand women’s diverse experiences of the genocide without
exploring their participation in the violence.
This article takes a small step in this direction. Based primarily on research
conducted in Rwanda in 2001, including interviews with 71 detained female
genocide suspects, it considers four central questions. First, what was the extent
and nature of women’s participation in the genocide? Second, if the forms of
women’s participation differed from men’s, what are the legal consequences of this
distinction? Third, what may have motivated ‘ordinary’ women to participate in
the violence? Fourth, what roles did women in leadership positions play during the
genocide, and how much actual power did they wield? A fifth question permeates
the text: how did gender influence women’s participation in the genocide, as well as
their subsequent encounters with the law?
This article notes that women participated in the genocide in a variety of
ways but were rarely directly engaged in the killings. It contends that where women
conformed to gender expectations and participated ‘indirectly’ in the genocide (in
particular, by denouncing Tutsis to the killers), less moral blame is attributed to
them, both by the women themselves and by those responsible for bringing them to
April 6, 2010 Journal of Humanitarian Assistance // Feinstein International Center
Based on interviews and field work in Rwanda over the course of two years, this article argues that genocide survivors have been excluded from the human rights guarantees and protections offered to refugees and asylum seekers experiencing persecution and threat to their lives and welfare. It illustrates how genocide survivors are subject to unique psychological and social vulnerabilities, including psycho-social trauma and high levels of chronic stress which impede their capacity to rehabilitate themselves and rebuild their lives. Many are forced to live in the same neighborhoods and villages as the genocidaires that raped and tortured them as well as their families and friends, and who murdered many of their closest kin. This is an intrinsically psychologically destabilizing position which burdens and overwhelms genocide survivors, subjecting them to continuous retraumatization. Consequently, it argues that genocide survivors should be granted special privileged immigration rights to resettlement outside of Rwanda....
Only fifty years after the Holocaust, the world has allowed another genocide to take place, this time in Rwanda. In April 1994, the international community sat by and watched while a million Tutsi men, women and children were massacred in the central African nation. Sitting on a Volcano, the first volume in the three-part Rwanda series, follows the exodus of hundreds of thousands of Hutus who fled Rwanda to take refuge in neighboring countries. One year after the slaughter, they find themselves trapped beween gangs of Rwandan war criminals in control of the refugee camps and their country's new masters, who show little interest in reconciliation. Sitting on a Volcano criticizes the international community, which continues to feed the killers in the refugee camps and refuses to acknowledge human rights violations in Rwanda. The video makes a strong case that until those responsible for the genocide are brought to justice, Rwanda cannot begin to heal itself. Volume 2 of the series....
March 7, 2011 Forced Migration Review // University of Oxford // Refugee Studies Centre
Militia, freedom fighters, rebels, terrorists,
paramilitaries, revolutionaries, guerrillas, gangs,
quasi-state bodies... and many other labels. In this
issue of FMR we look at all of these, at actors defined
as being armed and being ‘non-state’ – that is to say,
without the full responsibilities and obligations of the
state. Some of these actors have ideological or political
aims; some aspire to hold territory and overthrow a
government; some could be called organised groups,
and for others that would stretch the reality. Their
objectives vary but all are in armed conflict with the
state and/or with each other. Such actors, deliberately or
otherwise, regularly cause the displacement of people.
This issue of FMR
focuses more on the consequences of their violence and
its effects on people, and suggests ways in which these
might be mitigated. The articles included here reflect the
views of civil society groups and individuals in regular
contact with non-state armed groups, of academics and
governments, and of organisations that have years of
experience in engaging – creatively and productively –
with non-state armed groups.
This issue also includes a range of articles discussing
subjects as varied as the labelling of migrants, solar
energy in camps, gang persecution, and scoring states’
performance in respect of the rights of refugees....
Two actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and one improved in July 2010, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch released today.
In Somalia militant Islamist group al-Shabaab demonstrated for the first time its capability to spread conflict and bloodshed more widely across the region by launching suicide bomb attacks on Kampala, Uganda that killed at least 85 people. The bombings came after explicit warnings by al-Shabaab that they would take revenge on Uganda and Burundi for their troop contribution to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which supports the transitional government against the Islamist group. Despite threats by al-Shabaab leader Sheikh Abu-Zubeyr of further strikes on Kampala and in Burundi, the two countries maintained their resolve to take on the insurgency and committed to send more troops to AMISOM. In Somalia itself scores of civilians were killed as renewed fighting broke out between al-Shabaab and government forces to the north of Mogadishu.
In stark contrast, the situation in Somaliland improved in July, with the peaceful transfer of power to successful opposition candidate Ahmed Mahamoud Silanyo following the June presidential elections. July saw further political violence and a shrinking of the democratic space in Rwanda ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for August....
The following is a chronology of violations of the right to freedom of expression, association,
and assembly in Rwanda, and related events, from January through July, 2010, leading up to
presidential elections on August 9. Human Rights Watch documents listed at the end of the
chronology provide additional information on some of these cases.
The chronology focuses primarily on selected incidents affecting members of opposition
parties, journalists, and nongovernmental organizations. It is not an exhaustive list, and
Human Rights Watch has documented additional incidents that are not included....
Lieutenant Ildephonse Hategekimana was born in Mugina commune in the prefecture of Girarama, Rwanda. At the time of the allegations he was camp commandant of the Ngoma military camp in the Butare province. In collaboration with others holding political and military authority Ildephonse Hategekimana is said to have planned the elimination of the civilian Tutsi population and members of the opposition in order to hold on to power. Moreover, he is alleged to have personally incited and supervised the massacres and other crimes committed in Butare between April and June 1994 by Interhamwe militias and the military. This was reportedly done by furnishing materiel, in particular hand grenades but also transportation for these troops....
Theophister Mukakibibi is a rwandan nun. During the Rwandan genocide of 1994, while in charge of the stock at the Butare Hospital, she allegedly denied food to Tutsis seeking refuge in the hospital. She also is alleged to have contributed to the expulsion of Tutsis hidden in the hospital.
Jean de Dieu Kamuhanda was born on 3 March 1953 in Gikomero in the Prefecture of Kigali-Rural, Rwanda. On 25 May 1994, he was appointed to the position of Minister for Higher Education, Scientific Research and Culture in the interim government, replacing Dr. Daniel Nbangura in this post. He held this position until mid-July 1994. Kamuhanda played a leading role in the systematic extermination of the Tutsis who had taken refuge in the parish and the school in Gikomero in the Prefecture of Kigali-Rural, Rwanda in 1994....
Gaspard Kanyarukiga was born in 1945 in the commune of Kivumu, Kibuye prefecture, Rwanda. At the time of the events, he was a businessman. Together with Athanase Seromba, he is accused of planning the massacre of some 2000 Tutsis in the Catholic church in Nyange, Kibuye in April 1994.
As Rwandans prepare to go to the polls on August 9, though, rights groups say political repression is on the rise. Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and some western diplomats believe Kagame's strong-handed leadership style and refusal to permit the birth of a critical opposition now threaten the very stability and growth he has nurtured.
The president is widely expected to win re-election.
Whoever's responsible, violence in the run up to the presidential poll has Rwandans worried. Clashes between Hutus and Tutsis have marked every election in Rwanda since independence in 1962. The birth of multi-party democracy in the early 1990s brought a new surge of radical ethnic politics that, in part at least, helped spawn the genocide. This time around, racial divisions are echoed by a growing rift within the ruling Tutsi elite. Kagame, say western diplomats in Kigali, is trying to sideline possible threats to his power....
The government of Rwanda is doing a lot of things right. It is pretty open in its handling of aid money. Most foreign governments and charities are so impressed by its detailed plans and apparent lack of corruption that they are funnelling more of their aid directly through Rwanda’s government. President Paul Kagame says he expects direct budget support to rise by a quarter this year, to $519m.
The country has recovered valiantly from its year zero in 1994, when 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus were slaughtered. Its centralised state is leading the way in economic and technological reform in the region. It is improving the country’s infrastructure, education and farming, and seeks to preserve its ecology. It pushes equality for women, who comprise half the government and parliament.
On the diplomatic front, Mr Kagame has been equally successful. He has sent troops to help keep the peace in Sudan’s Darfur province and elsewhere. He has stood up to mighty France, blaming it, as the region’s then most influential Western power, for failing to prevent the genocide. And last month the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, came to Rwanda and offered something close to an apology. France, he said, had committed “grave errors of judgment” before, during, and after the genocide. Questions linger about the role of French special forces during the killing, as well as the fate of Hutus living in France whom Rwanda wants extradited on suspicion of involvement in the genocide....
In what Prosecutors have described as “the most important genocide trial” since the crime was legally defined in the Genocide Convention, the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda today convicted the former Rwandan military director Col. Théoneste Bagosora, of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. Bagosora, who had operational command of Rwanda’s military at the time the Rwandan genocide began, was sentenced to life imprisonment along with two other ex-army officers. The three officers were acquitted of conspiring to commit genocide before 7 April 1994. In addition, the Tribunal acquitted General Gratien Kabiligi, head of the military operations bureau of the army general staff, of all charges. Bagosora’s lawyer indicated that his client would appeal the counts on which he was convicted. The Prosecution had charged the accused with conspiracy to commit genocide, genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, based on direct or superior responsibility, for crimes committed in Rwanda in 1994. Bagosora was accused of heading a committee of Hutu extremists known as the ‘Akazu’ - the small powerful ruling elite of Hutu family members and relatives who were said to have conspired to exterminate the Tutsis - and of ordering and participating in the massacres against ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus. The Tribunal determined that Bagosora was responsible for the killing of political leaders, Tutsi civilians and UN peacekeepers carried out by troops under his effective control. It found that these actions would not have been carried out unless they “formed part of an organised military operation pursuant to orders from superior military authorities”....
This month marks the 14th anniversary of the Rwandan genocide, which is commonly considered to have begun on April 6, 1994. One aspect of the genocide that has received little attention in English-language media is the close relations that existed between the French military and the armed forces of the "Hutu Power" Rwandan government. In collaboration with the pro-government Interahamwe militias, Rwandan army officials are held to have been largely responsible for organizing the massacres perpetrated against the Tutsi civilian population and moderate Hutu from April to July 1994. The massacres are estimated to have claimed some 800,000 lives. They took place against the background of a civil war between Rwandan government forces and the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF): a rebel force led by Paul Kagame, the current Rwandan president. In light of France's support for the Rwandan government of the time and the ambiguities of the allegedly "humanitarian" mission -- dubbed "Operation Turquoise" -- dispatched by France to Rwanda in June 1994, victims groups and critics of French African policy have long accused the French government of complicity in the genocide. Their efforts led to the formation in 2004 of a "Citizens' Commission of Inquiry" on the French role in the Rwandan genocide....
Three years after the United Nations adopted a groundbreaking resolution to help it intervene to stop genocide, even longtime supporters of the rule acknowledge that it has not helped the organization end the violence in Darfur.
The Coalition for International Justice (CIJ) is an international, non-profit organization that supports the international war crimes tribunals for Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and justice initiatives in East Timor, Sierra Leone, and Cambodia. CIJ initiates and conducts advocacy and public education campaigns, targeting decision-makers in Washington and other capitals, media, and the public. Working with other non-governmental organizations in Washington and elsewhere, CIJ helps focus and maximize the impact of individual and collective advocacy. In the field, CIJ provides practical assistance on legal, technical, and outreach matters to the tribunals and other justice initiatives. CIJ has offices in Washington and The Hague, and contracted employees in East Timor....
The official website of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR). The ICTR was established for the prosecution of persons responsible for genocide and other serious violations of international humanitarian law committed in the territory of Rwanda between 1 January 1994 and 31 December 1994. It may also deal with the prosecution of Rwandan citizens responsible for genocide and other such violations of international law committed in the territory of neighbouring States during the same period....
Lessons from Rwanda: The United Nations and the Prevention of Genocide, an information and educational outreach programme, has launched a new website. The programme, established by General Assembly resolution 60/225, aims to “mobilize civil society for Rwanda genocide victim remembrance and education in order to help prevent future acts of genocideâ€. The site includes a variety of types of content, including key documents, audio-visual resources, and a discussion guide.
This section provides information about "conflict diamonds," or diamond trade that fuels conflicts in Africa. Specifically, Global Policy Forum focuses on the situation in Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo and Sierra Leone and Liberia, in which rebels sell diamonds, and use the profits to purchase weapons - deepening the spiral of conflict.
This page explor#es the debates and opinions from the UN, NGOs, the diamond industry, governments, and other parties involved. See also our Dark Side of Natural Resources page. ...
The United Nations established the International Criminal Tribunal of Rwanda (ICTR) to prosecute those most responsible for the 1994 genocide during which hundreds of thousands of Tutsis and moderate Hutus were murdered. The tribunal aims to assist the process of national reconciliation in Rwanda and the maintenance of peace in the region.
This page follows the development of important cases at the ICTR and provides analysis of the tribunals' effectiveness.
Inclusive Security's three-year Rwanda Project revealed that Rwandan women, who achieved near parity in the country's legislature in 2003, made extraordinary contributions to the rebuilding of their society following the 1994 genocide. Read the research to learn more about their achievements.
January 8, 2007 University of California Berkeley // Human Rights Center
This project involved a two-year collaboration among Rwandan teachers, students, parents, school administrators, Education Ministry officials, Rwandan and international historians. The materials have been used to train Rwandan teachers in both the teaching of critical thinking skills and in using primary sources for the teaching of history.
November 28, 2006 Carleton University // School of Journalism and Communication
Carleton University's School of Journalism and Communication has set up a multi-faceted exploration of the role of the news media in the Rwanda genocide. It aims to apply that knowledge in practical media training and journalism education in Canada and Rwanda. The initiative is headed by Carleton journalism professor
Allan Thompson who organized an international symposium on the role of the news media in the genocide. He also set up a media and genocide archive and published a collection of related research papers. The latest phase of the Rwanda Initiative is a teaching partnership with the National University of Rwanda, in Butare...
The Project produced two types of publications: thematic reports and case studies. Together, these papers make up an integrated package of materials. Thematic reports provide readers with an overarching understanding of general issues relating to environment, population, and security. Case studies examine in considerable detail these linkages in specific countries of interest to policymakers. These two types of reports complement each other: the thematic reports provide theoretical insights that can be explored in the case studies; the case studies provide illustrations of crucial theoretical points raised in the thematic reports. Each thematic report and case study was reviewed by several leading authorities before dissemination....
November 3, 2005 University of Oslo // International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Change
The Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS) project focuses on the relationships between environmental change and human society, with an emphasis on the implications for human security. Global environmental change-related threats to human security are unevenly distributed across and within regions, social groups, and generations. Understanding who is most vulnerable, as well as how these threats contribute to conflict or cooperation, forms an important part of GECHS research.
The goal of GECHS is to promote understanding and recognition of global environmental change as an issue of equity and sustainability, both of which are influenced by various forms of social power, as well as by broader social, economic, and cultural changes. ...
August 5, 2011 Japan International Cooperation Agency Research Institute
State-building is currently considered to be an indispensable process in overcoming state fragility: a condition characterized by frequent armed conflicts as well as chronic poverty. In this process, both the capacity and the legitimacy of the state are supposed to be enhanced; such balanced development of capacity and legitimacy has also been demanded in security sector reform , which is regarded as being a crucial part of post-conflict state-building. To enhance legitimacy, the importance of democratic governance is stressed in both state-building and SSR post-conflict countries. In reality, however, the balanced enhancement of capacity and legitimacy has rarely been realized. In particular, legitimacy enhancement tends to stagnate in countries in which one of multiple warring parties takes a strong grip on state power. This paper tries to understand why such unbalanced development of state-building and SSR has been observed in post-conflict countries, through a case study of Rwanda. Analyses of two policy initiatives in the security sector – Gacaca transitional justice and disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration – indicate that although these programs achieved goals set by the government, their contribution to the normative objectives promoted by the international community was quite debatable. It can be understood that this is because the country has subordinated SSR to its state-building process. After the military victory of the former rebels, the Rwandan Patriotic Front, the ruling elite prioritized the establishment of political stability over the introduction of international norms such as democratic governance and the rule of law. SSR was implemented only to the extent that it contributed to, and did not threaten, Rwanda’s RPF-led state-building....
August 5, 2011 Japan International Cooperation Agency Research Institute
The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the historical relation between conflict and land tenure in Rwanda, a country that experienced a harsh civil war and genocide in the mid-1990s. The victory of the Tutsi-led rebel, Rwandan Patriotic Front - RPF - at that time triggered a massive return of refugees and a drastic change in land tenure policy. These were refugees who had fled the country at around the time of independence, in 1962, due to the political turmoil and persecution (the "social revolution") and who shared the background of the core RPF members. The social revolution had dismantled the existent Tutsi-led political order, compelling many Tutsi families to seek refuge outside their homeland. Under the post-independence rule of a Hutu-led government, the Tutsi refugees were not allowed to return and the lands they left behind were often arbitrarily distributed by local authorities among Hutu peasants. After victory in the mid-1990s civil war, the newly established RPF-led government ordered the current inhabitants of the lands to divide the properties in order to allocate portions to the Tutsi returnees. Different patterns of land holding and land division will be explained in the paper from data gathered through the authors' fieldworks in the southern and eastern parts of Rwanda. Although overt resistance to land division has not been observed to date, the land rights of the Tutsi returnees must be considered unstable because their legitimacy depends primarily on the strength and political stability of the RPF-led government. If the authority of RPF were to weaken, the land rights will be jeopardized. Throughout Rwandan history, in which political exclusion has often led to serious conflict, macro-level politics have repeatedly influenced land holding. Promotion of an inclusive democracy, therefore, is indispensable to escape the vicious circle between political instability and land rights....
August 4, 2011 Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa
Politics, Religion and Power in the Great Lakes Region covers the political, religious and power relations in the contemporary Great Lakes States : Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Kenya and the Sudan. The work is important because of the nexus between these countries’ shared present and past - their political, socio-economic, cultural and historical aspirations. In terms of regional cooperation, they are the countries, save for the DRC and the Sudan, which form the current East African Community.
The book reflects on the complex dynamics and strategies of the ensuing power struggle, bringing forth a unique set of fascinating revelations of patterns of primitive capital accumulation, resistance, human rights violations and the political compromises between traditional enemies when confronted by a common (foreign) enemy. A critical analysis of the political distortion the region suffered brings to light the relevance of these divisive tools on the current trends in the African countries, drawing inferences from the African Great Lakes Region (GLR).
The study highlights how the conflicts were finally resolved to avert a serious war, thus bringing about new reforms. This history is instructive to the contemporary reader because of the frequent skirmishes caused by ethnic and religious differences, political and territorial conflicts as well as resource and leadership disputes in the GLR....
Mass atrocities are organized crimes. Those who commit
genocide and crimes against humanity depend on third
parties for the goods and services—money, matériel,
political support, and a host of other resources—that
sustain large-scale violence against civilians. Third parties
have supplied military aircraft used by the Sudan Armed
Forces against civilians, refined gold and other minerals
coming out of eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo,
and ensured a steady flow of arms into Rwanda.
Governments seeking to prevent atrocities cannot afford a
narrow and uncoordinated focus on the perpetrators of
such violence. Rather, an effective strategy must include
identifying and pressuring third-party enablers—
individuals, commercial entities, and countries—in order to
interrupt the supply chains that fuel mass violence against
The first-ever Director of War Crimes, Atrocities, and
Civilian Protection on the National Security Staff recently
convened a meeting that appears to initiate an
interagency structure to coordinate atrocities-prevention
initiatives across the government. The Administration has
an opportunity in the newly initiated structure to activate all
of the U.S. government’s resources to institute an
atrocities-prevention policy that goes beyond responding
to individual crises. This structure should incorporate a
systematic approach to disrupting enablers and should
ensure that all possible tools are developed and used to
counter these complex crimes. The intelligence
community and the Department of the Treasury, along
with the Departments of State and Defense, are key to
successfully tackling third-party enablers of atrocities....
July 8, 2011 Center for Strategic and International Studies
This report provides an overview of the CSIS study series examining the risks of instability in 10 African countries over the next decade. The 10 papers are designed to be complementary but can also be read individually as self-standing country studies. The overview draws on common themes and explains the methodology underpinning the research. The project was commissioned by the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). The papers in this series are not meant to offer hard and fast predictions about the future. While they sketch out some potential scenarios for the next 10 years, these efforts should be treated as thought experiments that look at how different dynamics might converge to create the conditions for instability. The intention is not to single out countries believed to be at risk of impending disaster and make judgments about how they will collapse. Few, if any, of the countries in this series are at imminent risk of breakdown. All of them have coping mechanisms that militate against conflict, and discussions of potential “worst-case scenarios” have to be viewed with this qualification in mind....