This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors ("luck") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification....
April 9, 2010 African Journal on Conflict Resolution // African Centre for for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes
What kind of conflict resolution approaches can effectively address intra-state wars
based on identity? Liberal peace models were designed to deal with inter-state
conflicts, and when applied to inter-ethnic conflicts bring limited success and often
disastrous results. This article from the African Journal on Conflict Resolution argues
that identities should be seen as key assets in building sustainable peace, justice and
reconciliation. Regional peace and security mechanisms and traditional justice
approaches should be used and international justice mechanisms approached with
caution. This special issue includes: Identity and Peace: Reconfiguring Conflict Resolution in Africa, by Gerard Hagg and Peter Kagwanja; Tunnel Vision or Kaleidoscope: Competing Concepts on
Sudan Identity and National Integration, by Atta El-Battahani; Identity Politics, Democratisation and State Building
in Ethiopia’s Federal Arrangement, by Kidane Mengisteab; Cultural Diversity and the Somali Conflict: Myth or Reality?, by Abdulahi A. Osman; Political Management of Ethnic Perceptions:
An Assessment of the African National Congress, by Mcebisi Ndletyana; Ethnic Diversity and Conflict in Nigeria:
Lessons from the Niger Delta Crisis, by Wilson Akpan; Cultural Diversity in Conflict and Peace Making in Africa, by Molem C. Sama; The Political Role of the Ethnic Factor around Elections
in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, by Hubert Kabungulu Ngoy-Kangoy; Identity and Cultural Diversity in Conflict Resolution and
Democratisation for the African Renaissance: The Case of Burundi, by Philippe Ntahombaye and Gaspard Nduwayo and ‘Echoing Silences’: Ethnicity in post-colonial Zimbabwe, 1980-2007, by James Muzondidya and Sabelo Ndlovu-Gatsheni....
January 29, 2010 Households in Conflict Network // Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex
We use experimental data from 35 randomly selected communities in Burundi
to examine the impact of exposure to conflict on social-, risk- and time preferences.
These types of preferences are important as they determine people’s propensity to invest
and their ability to overcome social dilemmas, so that changes therein foster or hinder
economic growth. We find that conflict affects preferences. Individuals that have been
exposed to greater levels of violence display more altruistic behavior towards their
neighbors, are more risk seeking, and have higher discount rates. Adverse, but
temporary, shocks can thus alter savings and investments decisions, and potentially have
January 29, 2010 Households in Conflict Network // The Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex
We analyse the effect of violence and rebellion on the evolution of household
welfare. We collected new panel data for Burundi (1999-2007) in which we reinterviewed
original as well as newly formed households (split-offs). We use several
definitions of the household as unit of analysis and test for resource pooling between
parental and split-off households. Focusing on the effect of civil war, we find that villagelevel
violence, measured as the number of battle-related deaths or wounded reduces
consumption growth by 9% for every 25 casualties. Joining an armed rebel group was a
lucrative livelihood strategy: households of which at least one member joined an armed
group experienced 41% higher growth in welfare over the study period. Results are
robust to alternative variables of civil war shocks and model specifications, including
household fixed effects and initial household fixed effects....
October 29, 2009 Households in Conflict Network // Institute of Development Studies // University of Sussex
We use a new dataset from Burundi to analyze the role of local institutions as
determinants of income, distinguishing between three distinct dimensions of the institutional
framework: (i) property rights security, (ii) local political leadership and (iii) social capital.
Using measures of conflict intensity during the civil war as instruments for local institutional
quality, we demonstrate that property rights security is the most significant driver of longterm
income. These insights extend earlier results from cross-country income regressions,
and confirm the scope for institutional reform to lift African communities out of poverty....
Nine actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and one improved in November 2010, according to the latest issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch released today.
Tensions surged on the Korean peninsula as two South Korean civilians and two marines were killed when North Korea fired dozens of artillery shells at Yeonpyeong Island, where South Korea was conducting military drills. Haiti ’s late month presidential elections ended in confusion, as several opposition candidates called for the vote to be annulled amid reports of fraud, and thousands of people took to the streets in protest. International observers from the OAS called the vote valid despite “serious irregularities”, but tensions remain high. Ivory Coast saw deadly pre-election clashes on the streets of the capital Abidjan between rival supporters of the two presidential candidates, incumbent Laurent Gbagbo and former Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara. The tightly contested 28 November run-off and delays in announcing the preliminary results has led to heightened tensions between the two camps and fears of further violence.
In Guinea, preliminary results declaring opposition leader Alpha Condé winner of the 7 November second round presidential election sparked three days of violence resulting in at least four deaths and dozens injured. CrisisWatch also noted deteriorated situations in Burundi, Central African Republic, Madagascar, Egypt and Western Sahara.
In Niger, the situation improved as results from the 31 October referendum showed 90 per cent of voters in favour of the new constitution, paving the way for January 2011 elections and a return to civilian rule.
Once again this month CrisisWatch describes violence against civilians in North and South Kivu provinces in the Democratic Republic of Congo....
Seven actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and none improved in September 2010, according to the latest issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch.Guinea saw increased political and ethnic divisions, exacerbated by controversies related to the presidential elections. Two days of violent clashes in the capital between rival supporters of the two presidential candidates, Alpha Conde and Cellou Diallo, left one person dead and dozens injured. Continued delays in the timing of the run-off and Diallo’s rejection of the appointment of the election commission’s new head led to further tensions between the two camps.
In Sri Lanka moves by President Rajapaksa to consolidate his power through a de facto constitutional coup transformed the political terrain. On 8 September the parliament passed the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, which gives the President nearly unbridled power by scrapping term limits on the presidency, abolishing the Constitutional Council and allowing the President to appoint directly officials to the judiciary, police and electoral bodies.
More protesters were killed by police in Kashmir as anti-India demonstrations continued and spread to new areas, bringing the death toll from the demonstrations since June to over 100. The Indian government on 25 September announced an eight-point plan aimed at calming the situation. Separatist leaders rejected the initiative and said that protests will continue.
The situation in Burundi deteriorated as violent clashes between security forces and armed groups increased, alongside kidnappings and fatal attacks on civilians. There are increasingly credible indications that elements disgruntled with elections held earlier this year have re-established bases and taken up arms in the Rukoko and Kibira areas. However, local authorities deny that former rebels are regrouping and insist that bandits are behind the recent attacks.
The month saw a new upsurge of violence in Russia’s restive North Caucasus region, demonstrating the growing ability of guerrillas to carry out major operations. In the deadliest terrorist strike anywhere in Russia since the March subway bombings in Moscow, a suicide attack killed at least 17 at a market in the capital of North Ossetia. A spate of bold guerrilla attacks also struck security personnel and infrastructure in Dagestan. The situation in Ecuador took a dramatic turn at the end of the month when disaffected members of the police and armed forces staged a protest against proposed austerity measures, taking control of the National Assembly building and airport and laying siege to a hospital where President Correa had sought refuge. President Correa later said the revolt amounted to an attempted coup. Meanwhile, in Mozambique 13 people were killed and over 170 injured in three days of riots that took place early in the month over food and energy price increases....
Turkey holds the presidency of the Council in June.
An open debate on protection of civilians is planned late in the month. There is also a possibility of another open debate on peacekeeping with a particular focus on troop contributing countries late in the month (this has not been confirmed at press time).
Debates are likely on Kosovo, with the participation of representatives of Serbia and Kosovo, and on Iraq, with the likely participation of the country’s representative.
Formal meetings to adopt resolutions renewing mandates of operations in the Golan Heights (UNDOF) and in Georgia (resolution 1866) are expected.
The Council is likely to receive several briefings in June:
A briefing on Sudan by John Holmes, the Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, originally scheduled in May but postponed.
The monthly Middle East briefing may be conducted in June by Tony Blair, the Quartet Special Envoy (at press time this has not been confirmed).
Early in the month, the Council will be briefed by the presidents and prosecutors of the International Criminal Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and Rwanda (ICTR) on the completion strategies for each tribunal.
The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) is also expected to brief the Council.
The Chair of the Liberia Sanctions Committee.
The Chair of the Iran Sanctions Committee.
The head of the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA).
The Council is likely to receive briefings on:
Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL);
Burundi (BINUB); and
The Council will also discuss:
Central African Republic (BONUCA); and
the Counter Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED)....
March 4, 2009 International Refugee Rights Initiative
Launched in December 2008, the Kakuma News Reflector (Kanere) is a new newsletter and blog written by
Ethiopian, Congolese, Ugandan, Rwandan, Somali, Sudanese and Kenyan refugees living in Kakuma
Refugee Camp, Kenya. Their aim is to add the voices of refugees to the "well-established voices of
academia, law, and institutions,” according to the introduction to the blog. The publication includes stories
covering a wide range of issues such as the provision of water and health care services, child labour, drug
abuse and education....
May 27, 2008 European Union // European Parliament
MEPs call on all parties to respect the ceasefire agreement concluded on 7 September 2006 after 14 years of civil war. Since 17 April 2008 fighting has again erupted between government troops and the rebel National Liberation Front in Burundi, forcing thousands of civilians to flee their homes and resulting in the deaths of 50 rebel fighters.
MEPs call on all parties to respect the ceasefire agreement concluded on 7 September 2006, resume negotiations. Negotiations between the government and the National Liberation Front (FNL) broke down in July 2007 when the FNL walked out of the Joint Verification and Monitoring Mechanism created to oversee implementation of the ceasefire accord signed in September 2006.
The House urges the FNL, and its leader Agathon Rwasa, to engage constructively in the peace process....
The Council will receive a briefing by the High Commissioner for Human Rights Under Secretary-General Louise Arbour on 31 May. The briefing will address the High Commissioner's recent trip to the Great Lakes region, that included the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Burundi and Rwanda. The briefing will in all likelihood focus mostly on the DRC. No formal action is expected.
On Wednesday the Council is expected to adopt a resolution defining the mandate and structure of the UN Integrated Office in Burundi (Bureau Integre des Nations Unies au Burundi or BINUB). The integrated office will be set up on 1 January for a twelve month period under the leadership of the Executive Representative of the Secretary-General and will replace the current peacekeeping mission, the UN Operation in Burundi (ONUB), when its mandate expires on 31 December 2006. The 14 August addendum to the Secretary-General's June report fleshed out the details of the integrated office first proposed in June. Council members felt the Secretary-General's recommendations were too broad and that there was a need for a more focused mandate and narrower priorities particularly given the limited resources. In the discussions over the resolution, many Council members had Sierra Leone's integrated office experience on their minds and stressed the dangers of a broad horizontal list of priorities. The consensus was that core security issues such as disarmament, reintegration and human rights rather than development issues should be the focus for the first stage of BINUB. Members also wanted to ensure that the Executive Representative of the Secretary-General had the flexibility to deploy resources where they were most needed rather than being constrained by a prescriptive set of priorities....
March 25, 2010 Burundi Early Warning Election Project
The Burundi Early Warning Election Project plans to leverage the mobile platform to develop an information system that will collect, analyze and report on real-time events during the 2010 Burundian elections. On a local level the Project will:
1) identify potential flashpoints and recognize successful outcomes (i.e. short wait times at polling stations);
2) enable communities to have relevant, reliable data to better respond to potentially volatile situations; and,
3) build local capacity for monitoring the entire electoral process.
On an international level, information will be analyzed and forwarded to international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and policy makers to provide them with a detailed grassroots, real-time assessment of the events that are taking place in Burundi....
Insight on Conflict provides information on local peacebuilding organisations in areas of conflict. Local peacebuilders already make a real impact in conflict areas. They work to prevent violent conflicts before they start, to reduce the impact of violence, and to bring divided communities together in the aftermath of violence. However, their work is often ignored – either because people aren’t aware of the existence and importance of local peacebuilders in general, or because they simply haven’t had access to information and contacts for local peacebuilders. We hope that Insight on Conflict can help redress the balance by drawing attention to important work of local peacebuilders. On this site, you’ll be able to find out who the local peacebuilders are, what they do, and how you might get in touch with them. Over half the organisations featured on Insight on Conflict do not have their own website. Insight on Conflict is a project launched by Peace Direct, the UK-based charity that finds, funds and promotes local peacebuilders in conflict areas around the world. Peace Direct wants to change the balance of power and resources between local people and outsiders so that local peacebuilding is central to all strategies for managing conflict....
August 4, 2011 Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa
Politics, Religion and Power in the Great Lakes Region covers the political, religious and power relations in the contemporary Great Lakes States : Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Kenya and the Sudan. The work is important because of the nexus between these countries’ shared present and past - their political, socio-economic, cultural and historical aspirations. In terms of regional cooperation, they are the countries, save for the DRC and the Sudan, which form the current East African Community.
The book reflects on the complex dynamics and strategies of the ensuing power struggle, bringing forth a unique set of fascinating revelations of patterns of primitive capital accumulation, resistance, human rights violations and the political compromises between traditional enemies when confronted by a common (foreign) enemy. A critical analysis of the political distortion the region suffered brings to light the relevance of these divisive tools on the current trends in the African countries, drawing inferences from the African Great Lakes Region (GLR).
The study highlights how the conflicts were finally resolved to avert a serious war, thus bringing about new reforms. This history is instructive to the contemporary reader because of the frequent skirmishes caused by ethnic and religious differences, political and territorial conflicts as well as resource and leadership disputes in the GLR....
July 28, 2011 Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior
What role do women play in statebuilding? How do statebuilding processes affect women's participation? Support for statebuilding has become the dominant model for international engagement in post-conflict contexts, yet donor approaches lack substantial gender analysis and are missing opportunities to promote gender equality. This paper presents findings from a research project on the impact of post-conflict statebuilding on women's citizenship. It argues that gender inequalities are linked to the underlying political settlement, and that donors must therefore address gender as a fundamentally political issue....
July 7, 2011 Households in Conflict Network // The Institute of Development Studies
The paper investigates the effect of child malnutrition on the risk of mortality in
Burundi, a very poor country heavily affected by civil war. We use anthropometric data from
a longitudinal survey - 1998-2007. We find that undernourished children, as measured by the
height-for-age z-scores - HAZ - in 1998 had a higher probability to die during subsequent
years. In order to address the problem of omitted variables correlated with both nutritional
status and the risk of mortality, we use the length of exposure to civil war prior to 1998 as a
source of exogenous variation in a child’s nutritional status. Children exposed to civil war in
their area of residence have worse nutritional status. The paper finds that one year of exposure
translates into a 0.15 decrease in the HAZ, resulting in a 10 percent increase in the probability to die
for the whole sample as well as a 0.34 decrease in HAZ per year of exposure for boys only,
resulting in 25 percent increase in the probability to die. We show the robustness of our results.
Food and income transfer programs during civil war should be put in place to avoid the longterm
effects of malnutrition....
June 27, 2011 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre // The Brookings Institution // London School of Economics Project on Internal Displacement
While the world’s attention often gravitates to the latest emergency situation, we are acutely aware that
most of the world’s internally displaced persons (IDPs) live in protracted displacement. Displacement
drags on, sometimes for years or decades, because of continuing conflict, because peace processes are
stalled, or because political settlements fail to provide the necessary security and support for the displaced to find solutions.
The 2nd Expert Seminar on Protracted Internal Displacement was held in Geneva from 19-20 January 2011 on the theme of “IDPs in protracted displacement: Is local integration a solution?” Around 100 participants discussed challenges and possibilities of local integration in diverse protracted displacement situations over the course of the two days.
This publication includes the six case studies commissioned for the seminar as well as an introductory essay which
explores the common themes emerging from the studies on protracted displacement and local integration. By focusing on the possibilities and challenges of local integration in protracted displacement, we hope that these
six case studies lead to better understanding—and to concrete actions—which will bring an end to internal displacement
which has gone on for far too long in these six countries and in many others....
The big-picture issues at the crossroads of peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding were taken up by the Security Council in September 2010, under the presidency of Turkey. Leading up to that discussion, Turkey held numerous bilateral consultations, and, with the support of IPI, organized an expert meeting on these issues in New York in May 2010 and an informal retreat in Istanbul for members of the Council in June 2010.
This publication is intended to document some of that process, and includes the Statement by the President of the Security Council, the outcome summary of the June retreat, and the set of papers that were presented there. Three of these papers draw lessons from the UN’s experiences in different areas of the world (Afghanistan, the Balkans, and the Great Lakes region of Africa), and one paper analyzes cross-cutting themes.
Table of Contents:
Introduction, Francesco Mancini
Security Council Istanbul Retreat: At The Crossroads of Peacemaking, Peacekeeping, and Peacebuilding
Adam C. Smith and Vanessa Wyeth, Rapporteurs
Peacemaking In Afghanistan: A Role For The United Nations?
The Security Council And Peacekeeping In The Balkans, 1992-2010
Richard Gowan and Daniel Korski
The Great Lakes of Africa (Burundi, The Drc, And The LRA-Affected Areas)
Composite Paper on Cross-Cutting Themes
International Peace Institute
Statement by the President of the Security Council...
November 3, 2009 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
This data source provides the numbers of refugees and asylum seekers in Kenya, disaggregated by country of origin and location, and with trend data from 2006 to 2009. The data source also provides numbers of refugees and asylum seekers by the status of refugee or asylum status (applied, decided, pending), and the numbers of repatriated and resettled refugees and asylum seekers.