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Abstract: This report documents numerous abuses during renewed fighting in the past year by parties to the 20-year-long conflict in Somalia. These include the Islamist armed group al-Shabaab, the Somali Transitional Federal Government, the African Union peacekeeping forces, and Kenya- and Ethiopia-backed Somali militias. The report also examines abuses by the Kenyan police and crimes committed by bandits in neighboring Kenya against Somali refugees.
Abstract: This Policy Brief examines the real and imagined influence of al-Qa‘ida in North Africa and the Sahel. Despite a perception of the transnationalization of terrorist movements in North Africa under al-Qa‘ida’s banner, robust evidence of an effective al-Qa‘ida’s expansion in the Maghreb and the Sahara/Sahel region remains elusive at best. Rather, doubts about al-Qa‘ida’s actual threat and the efficacy of international response in the context of pervasive state failure in the Sahel raise questions regarding the policy objectives of US-led counter-terrorism in the region.
Abstract: Key facts and figures for Sudan with a focus on Darfur as of June 2011. Categories include:
- Geography and demographics Area Sudan
- Map and focus areas
- Human Development (HDI, Sudan)
- Economy, Budget and Aid
- GDP / govt revenue ($bn, Sudan)
- Aid ($bn, Sudan)
- Acute respiratory infections (incidents / 10,000 population, Darfur)
- Food security
- Cereal production (‘000 MT, Darfur)
- Urbanization (%,Sudan)
- Min. food basket (SDG / day, Darfur)
- Water and sanitation
- Conflict and fatalities (Darfur)
- Fatalities Darfur
- UN & Partners Work Plan 2011
- Displacement and refugees
- Villages affected (Darfur, cum. total)
Abstract: Politics, Religion and Power in the Great Lakes Region covers the political, religious and power relations in the contemporary Great Lakes States : Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Kenya and the Sudan. The work is important because of the nexus between these countries’ shared present and past - their political, socio-economic, cultural and historical aspirations. In terms of regional cooperation, they are the countries, save for the DRC and the Sudan, which form the current East African Community.
The book reflects on the complex dynamics and strategies of the ensuing power struggle, bringing forth a unique set of fascinating revelations of patterns of primitive capital accumulation, resistance, human rights violations and the political compromises between traditional enemies when confronted by a common (foreign) enemy. A critical analysis of the political distortion the region suffered brings to light the relevance of these divisive tools on the current trends in the African countries, drawing inferences from the African Great Lakes Region (GLR).
The study highlights how the conflicts were finally resolved to avert a serious war, thus bringing about new reforms. This history is instructive to the contemporary reader because of the frequent skirmishes caused by ethnic and religious differences, political and territorial conflicts as well as resource and leadership disputes in the GLR.
Abstract: The main aim of emergency response funds - ERFs - is to provide rapid and flexible funding to in-country actors to address unforeseen humanitarian needs.There are currently 14 stand-alone ERFs in operation.
This report provides information and data on these ERFs, including donors to the funds, implementing agencies and sector analysis. The document also provides brief case studies of the use of the funds in Kenya and Somalia.
Abstract: People become refugees for many
reasons, not least because of violent
civil conflicts in which ordinary citizens
are the greatest victims. This has
led to large numbers of women,
men and children being forced to
seek sanctuary in their neighbouring
countries and further afield. These
people can remain displaced for years,
or even decades. Some may fear that
the prolonged presence of refugees
will have a negative impact on their
community or country.
In reality, if given the opportunity to
integrate and belong, former refugees
are able to be self-reliant and to
contribute socially and economically,
in many cases becoming an asset to
their host States.
Local integration is one of the
three ‘durable solutions’ for refugees
developed by the Office of the
United Nations High Commissioner
for Refugees (UNHCR), in partnership
with host and origin countries. The
other durable solutions are voluntary
repatriation to the refugees’ country
of origin, and resettlement in a third
country. Local integration is particularly relevant
when people cannot return to their
country of origin in a foreseeable
future, or have developed strong
ties with their host communities
through business or marriage. It
is based on the assumption that
refugees will remain in their country
of asylum permanently and find
a solution to their plight in that
State, possibly but not necessarily
though acquiring citizenship.
Local integration is all about
partnerships and collaboration
between agencies and countries in
the pursuit of collective solutions.
Ultimately, however, both the vision
and leadership of host governments
and the support of the international
community are critical to the
ongoing success of local integration
Abstract: It would be hard to conceive of two States that offer greater contrasts than
Somalia and Eritrea: the former, a collapsed State for over two decades, with no
functional national institutions; the latter, possessing the most highly centralized,
militarized and authoritarian system of government on the African continent. From a
sanctions monitoring perspective, however, the two countries present very similar
challenges: in both cases, power is concentrated in the hands of individuals rather
than institutions and is exercised through largely informal and often illicit networks
of political and financial control. Leaders in both countries often depend more
heavily on political and economic support from foreign Governments and diaspora
networks than from the populations within their own borders. And both countries —
in very different ways — serve as platforms for foreign armed groups that represent a
grave and increasingly urgent threat to peace and security in the Horn and East
More than half of Somali territory is controlled by responsible, comparatively
stable authorities that have demonstrated, to varying degrees, their capacity to
provide relative peace and security to their populations. Without exception, the
administrations of Somaliland, Puntland, Gaalmudug, and “Himan iyo Heeb”
evolved independently of centralized State-building initiatives, from painstaking,
organic local political processes. Much of Galguduud region is controlled by anti-Al-
Shabaab clan militias loosely unified under the umbrella of Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a
(ASWJ), but lacks a functional authority. Consolidation of and cooperation between
such entities represents the single most effective strategy for countering threats like
extremism and piracy, while expanding peace and security in Somalia.
Abstract: This paper documents the opinions of victims of human rights violations in Kenya about the country’s unfolding transitional justice process. The first section gives background into the human rights violations; the second section presents victims ideas about reparative justice. The report recommends implementing an urgent reparations program to address the needs of the most vulnerable victims, as well as establishing a process to lead to a more comprehensive reparations program in the future.
Abstract: What role do women play in statebuilding? How do statebuilding processes affect women's participation? Support for statebuilding has become the dominant model for international engagement in post-conflict contexts, yet donor approaches lack substantial gender analysis and are missing opportunities to promote gender equality. This paper presents findings from a research project on the impact of post-conflict statebuilding on women's citizenship. It argues that gender inequalities are linked to the underlying political settlement, and that donors must therefore address gender as a fundamentally political issue.
Abstract: This report documents the pattern of trials of civilians before military courts, the ways in which such trials violate international legal principles, and the steps Uganda should take to address these fair-trial violations. Since 2002, military courts in Uganda have prosecuted over 1,000 civilians on charges under the criminal code, such as murder and armed robbery. A 2006 Ugandan Constitutional Court ruling, upheld on appeal in 2009 before the Supreme Court and consistent with international law, that military courts are not competent to try civilians accused of common crimes has not been enforced.
Abstract: Aid will continue to be an important resource flow to underwrite the provision of basic services and to meet humanitarian needs in a country where the state, still only six years old, lacks capacity, where the economy is overwhelmingly dependent on a single commodity and where humanitarian crisis thresholds are still frequently exceeded. But since becoming a nation state in its own right, the way in which the international donor community engages with the new Republic of South Sudan is changing fast. In this briefing paper, we summarise some of the immediate aid data and aid management changes that are underway
Abstract: The East African region has long confronted the challenge of small arms and
light weapons (SALW) proliferation. The history of small arms in the region goes back
to pre-colonial times, when sprawling gun markets existed in Maji, south-western
Ethiopia. At that time the Karamoja region (including those areas currently under
Kenyan and Ugandan administration) was a key destination for incoming arms.
Subsequently the anti-colonial Mau Mau struggle in 1950s Kenya is believed to have
introduced arms to urban areas, while recurrent instability in late 20th Century
Uganda worsened the small arms situation there.
Many linked factors drive demand for small arms in contemporary Kenya and Uganda.
At the local level, inter-group animosities between ethnic groups or clans in poorly
policed and under-developed pastoralist-inhabited areas are a key factor.1 Pastoralist
groups inhabit arid or semi-arid areas and are naturally in competition for scarce water
points and pastureland. Although low-intensity violence, above all revolving around
cattle raiding, has been an enduring feature of the region, the influx of automatic
weaponry has transformed its nature, intensified its human cost and transformed a
range of societal relationships.2 In the absence of effective and accessible state security
provision in these areas, small arms are naturally seen as a guarantor of security. In
turn localised illicit arms transfers are also a source of income.
Abstract: This report highlights a poorly documented phenomenon: the scope and nature of irregular migration and human smuggling of men from East Africa and the Horn owards South Africa. It addresses the issues of protection, human rights abuses, corruption, complicity of public officials, as well as the related border management challenges.
Abstract: This working paper is written against a background of continued formation of national
co-ordination mechanisms for the control of SALW globally and the persistent
question as to whether existing and emerging structures are living up to expectations.
It assesses the achievements and challenges faced by two such structures, namely the
National Focal Points for SALW (NFPs) control in Kenya and Uganda, while also
examining the record of a supporting regional body, the Regional Centre on Small
Arms (RECSA). Preliminary conclusions and recommendations are drawn at the
end of the paper targeting RECSA, the two governments and also external actors like
donors and civil society. A combination of desk research and selected interviews with
NFP staff and external stakeholders informed the research.
Kenya and Uganda have been selected for analysis because they were among the first
countries in the East African region to establish co-ordination bodies following agreement
of the Nairobi Declaration on the Problem of the Proliferation of the Illicit Small
Arms and Light Weapons in the Great Lakes Region and Horn of Africa (the ‘Nairobi
Declaration’) in the year 2000 and as such have had sufficient time to demonstrate
both successes and failings. The paper does not claim to be a comprehensive study on
the effectiveness of NFPs in the region as this would require more substantial research
and many more case studies. It does however provide an overview of the issues affecting
SALW control efforts in the region which can be built on in subsequent research.
Abstract: Why do armed groups recruit large numbers of children as fighters, often coercively? The international
community has tried to curb these crimes by shaming and punishing leaders who commit
them—in short, making the crimes costlier. Are these policies effective and sufficient? The
answer lies in more attention to the strategic interaction between rebel leaders and recruits. We
adapt theories of industrial organization to rebellious groups and show how, being less able
fighters, children are attractive recruits if and only if they are easier to intimidate, indoctrinate
and misinform than adults. This ease of manipulation interacts with the costliness of war crimes
to influence rebel leaders’ incentives to coerce children into war. We use a case study and a novel
survey of former child recruits in Uganda to illustrate this argument and provide hard evidence
not only that children are more easily manipulated in war, but also how—something often asserted
but never demonstrated. Our theory, as well as a new “cross-rebel” dataset, also support the
idea that costliness matters: foreign governments, international organizations, diasporas, and local
populations can discourage child recruitment by withholding resources or punishing offenders
(or, conversely, encourage these crimes by failing to act). But punishing war crimes has limitations,
and can only take us so far. Children’s reintegration opportunities must be at least as
great as adults’ (something that demobilization programs sometimes fail to do). Also, indoctrination
and misinformation can be directly influenced. We observe grassroots innovations in Uganda
that could be models for the prevention and curbing of child soldiering and counterinsurgency
Abstract: Education has been long neglected in
emergency relief efforts. In 2007, Save
the Children estimated that more than 39
million children and youth who are affected by
armed conflict do not have access to education.
In mid-2007, the Women’s Refugee Commission
(formerly called the Women’s Commission for
Refugee Women and Children) approached the
Population Council about conducting research
on the protective role of education in conflict.
The result was a collaboration between the two
organizations on a research project in Darfur,
Sudan. The Darfur region has been significantly
affected by displacement from ongoing conflict.
Given the large size of the affected population,
the level of international involvement, and
the documented violations against children
and youth, Darfur serves as a compelling case
study of the extent of educational coverage for
primary-school-age children in this setting as
well as certain basic elements of educational
quality. The ultimate goal of the project was to
improve the well-being of displaced children and
youth through increasing the provision of quality
and safe education. This report is the outcome of
the research project.
Abstract: Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP) has found evidence consistent with allegations that the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Government of Sudan-aligned (GoS) militias have apparently engaged in a campaign of systematic mass killing of civilians in Kadugli, South Kordofan. Under the Rome Statute and other international humanitarian law, the systematic killing of civilians in peace or war by their own government can constitute crimes against humanity.
Based on an analysis of DigitalGlobe satellite imagery and eyewitness reports obtained by the Satellite Sentinel Project, SSP has identified a site consistent with mass graves in Kadugli. SSP has found evidence corroborating at least four, independent eyewitness accounts that SAF, GoS-aligned militias and other GoS-aligned forces are present in Kadugli and are alleged to be methodically searching houses for civilians. The four eyewitnesses claim that the SAF and GoS-aligned militias are systematically killing those suspected of supporting the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and others.
SSP has also found evidence consistent with a possible pile of people in body bags or white plastic tarps in Kadugli. This imagery corroborates an eyewitness account of bodies being placed in body bags or some form of white plastic tarp by SAF and GoS-aligned militia forces.
Detailed situation reports from UN agencies and other aid providers are severely limited due to the lack of free and unfettered access to Kadugli town. In the absence of on-the-ground reports from humanitarian actors and journalists, eyewitness reports from those who were in Kadugli town within the past month, combined with satellite imagery analysis, are the only available means of assessing the situation there at present.
Abstract: East Africa is facing the worst food crisis of the 21st Century. Across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya, 12 million people are in dire need of food, clean water, and basic sanitation. Loss of life on a massive scale is a very real risk, and the crisis is set to worsen over the coming months, particularly for pastoralist communities.
The overall international donor response to this humanitarian crisis has been slow and inadequate. According to UN figures, $1bn is required to meet immediate needs. So far donors have committed less than $200m, leaving an $800m black hole.
While severe drought has undoubtedly led to the huge scale of the disaster, this crisis has been caused by people and policies, as much as by weather patterns. If more action had been taken earlier it could have helped mitigate the severity of the current crisis. It is no coincidence that the worst affected areas are those suffering from entrenched poverty due to marginalisation and lack of investment.
A rapid increase in emergency aid is needed right now to save lives and protect livelihoods, so that people can rebuild once the crisis is over. National governments and donors must prioritise addressing the issues that make people vulnerable in the first place.
There’s no time to waste. We must not stand by and watch this tragedy unfold.
Abstract: Background: Despite the serious consequences of conflict for reproductive
health, populations affected by conflict and its aftermath face tremendous
barriers to accessing reproductive health services, due to insecurity,
inadequate numbers of trained personnel and lack of supplies. Family
planning is often particularly neglected.
Methods: In six conflict-affected areas in Sudan, northern Uganda and the
Democratic Republic of Congo, household surveys of married or in-union
women of reproductive age were conducted to determine baseline measures
of family planning knowledge, attitudes and behaviors regarding
contraception. Health facility assessments were carried out to assess baseline
measures of family planning services availability. Data were double-entered
into CSPro 3.2 and exported to SAS 9.2, which was used to calculate
descriptive statistics. The studies’ purposes were to guide program activities
and to serve as a baseline against which program accomplishments could be
Results: Knowledge of modern contraceptive methods was low relative to
other sub-Saharan African countries, and use of modern methods was under
4 percent in four sites; in two sites with prior family planning services it was 12 percent
and 16.2 percent. From 30 percent to 40 percent of women reported they did not want a child
within two years, however, and an additional 12 percent to 35 percent wanted no
additional children, suggesting a clear need for family planning services. The
health facilities assessment showed that at most only one-third of the facilities
mandated to provide family planning had the necessary staff, equipment and
supplies to do so adequately; in some areas, none of the facilities were
prepared to offer such services.
Conclusions: Family planning services are desired by women living in crisis
situations when offered in a manner appropriate to their needs, yet services
are rarely adequate to meet these needs. Refugee and internally displaced
women must be included in national and donors’ plans to improve family
planning in Africa.
Abstract: The increasing number of South Sudan’s armed forces is costing more than 50 percent of government’s expenditure by some estimates – despite a two-year-old US$55 million demobilization and disarmament programme (DDR) sponsored by international donors.
Only about 12,000 people in South Sudan have completed the DDR process that targeted 90,000 ex-combatants. All armed groups in South Sudan are being consolidated under the former rebel army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), and its political wing, the Sudan’s People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), will form the country’s first government after a referendum held earlier this year overwhelmingly voted to secede from Khartoum-ruled Sudan.
The UN Development Programme (UNDP) told IRIN in a statement the DDR programme - established as part of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between the North and South after a 21-year-long civil war - aimed for the re-integration of 180,000 ex-combatants by 2012 - or 90,000 from each country.
The apparent failure to entice soldiers into civilian life is both a consequence of the country’s desperate poverty, the relatively high salaries paid to soldiers and the delays encountered in starting up DDR.
Abstract: The independent Republic of South Sudan emerged Saturday from the ravages of half a century of war, deprivation, destruction, and displacement. Its freedom was guaranteed overwhelmingly by a self-determination held last January, and, today, it is impossible to resist the celebratory urges evident in Juba, the new capital. But this birth occurs against an exceedingly grim backdrop that suggests resumed war between Sudan and, now, South Sudan is much closer than diplomats and analysts have allowed themselves to say, or perhaps even think. The threats of conflict in the border regions of Abyei and South Kordofan are acute and growing more so by the day; Khartoum also continues to bomb civilian targets in the northern part of Unity State, which is in the new South Sudan, and supports deadly renegade militias.Indeed, war has steadily become more likely than peace.
Abstract: Mass atrocities are organized crimes. Those who commit
genocide and crimes against humanity depend on third
parties for the goods and services—money, matériel,
political support, and a host of other resources—that
sustain large-scale violence against civilians. Third parties
have supplied military aircraft used by the Sudan Armed
Forces against civilians, refined gold and other minerals
coming out of eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo,
and ensured a steady flow of arms into Rwanda.
Governments seeking to prevent atrocities cannot afford a
narrow and uncoordinated focus on the perpetrators of
such violence. Rather, an effective strategy must include
identifying and pressuring third-party enablers—
individuals, commercial entities, and countries—in order to
interrupt the supply chains that fuel mass violence against
The first-ever Director of War Crimes, Atrocities, and
Civilian Protection on the National Security Staff recently
convened a meeting that appears to initiate an
interagency structure to coordinate atrocities-prevention
initiatives across the government. The Administration has
an opportunity in the newly initiated structure to activate all
of the U.S. government’s resources to institute an
atrocities-prevention policy that goes beyond responding
to individual crises. This structure should incorporate a
systematic approach to disrupting enablers and should
ensure that all possible tools are developed and used to
counter these complex crimes. The intelligence
community and the Department of the Treasury, along
with the Departments of State and Defense, are key to
successfully tackling third-party enablers of atrocities.
Abstract: This report provides an overview of the CSIS study series examining the risks of instability in 10 African countries over the next decade. The 10 papers are designed to be complementary but can also be read individually as self-standing country studies. The overview draws on common themes and explains the methodology underpinning the research. The project was commissioned by the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). The papers in this series are not meant to offer hard and fast predictions about the future. While they sketch out some potential scenarios for the next 10 years, these efforts should be treated as thought experiments that look at how different dynamics might converge to create the conditions for instability. The intention is not to single out countries believed to be at risk of impending disaster and make judgments about how they will collapse. Few, if any, of the countries in this series are at imminent risk of breakdown. All of them have coping mechanisms that militate against conflict, and discussions of potential “worst-case scenarios” have to be viewed with this qualification in mind.
Abstract: This report is part of a series examining the risks of instability in 10 African countries over the next decade. The papers in this study are not meant to offer hard and fast predictions about the future. While they sketch out some potential scenarios for the next 10 years, these efforts should be treated as thought experiments that look at how different dynamics might converge to create the conditions for instability. Given the upcoming independence of Southern Sudan, CSIS is launching this series of studies with its Sudan report.
Key Points in this report:
1. Sudan's long-term stability depends on whether the country's north and south can reach and fully implement equitable agreements on the terms of their separation in July 2011.
2. North Sudan faces a highly volatile period during the next decade. The ruling National Congress Party will face growing calls for political change, an economic slump, and the possibility of armed challenges from within. There is the added risk of contagion from the uprisings seen elsewhere in North Africa. The regime will most likely use violence to confront these challenges. The prospect of civil war cannot be ruled out.
3. South Sudan faces the enormous challenge of the need to establish a functioning state with few resources in the face of serious security challenges. Its stability will depend on establishing its legitimacy as a state, which will mean being able to provide services to its citizens and keeping them safe. The next decade is likely to see slow progress checked by frequent reversals.