September 2, 2010
International Crisis Group

Abstract:

The January 2011 referendum on self-determination could result in Sudan’s partition, and the country’s North-South border may ultimately become the world’s newest international boundary. The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended two decades of civil war called for the border between the North and the semi-autonomous South to be demarcated within six months. Five years later, the task remains incomplete. The sooner the parties break the border deadlock the better, though the process need not necessarily be completed prior to the referendum as Khartoum has argued previously. Furthermore, a solution to the border is about not only drawing a line, but also defining the nature and management of that border and the future relations of communities on both sides. A “soft” boundary is ideal, one backed by a framework for cross-border arrangements and, if necessary, safeguarded by a joint monitoring mechanism. Progress toward both demarcating and defining the border will prevent it from becoming a source of renewed conflict in the post-CPA era....

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

Pakistan's floods have affected twenty million people and killed nearly sixteen hundred so far, according to the United Nations. The United States has been rallying international assistance for Pakistan; on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged additional aid at a UN meeting (BBC) boosting total U.S. flood aid to $150 million, and Senator John Kerry (D-MA) visited flood-ravaged areas in Pakistan to assess ongoing relief efforts. CFR Senior Fellow Daniel Markey says the floods have compounded Pakistan's challenges and made Washington's efforts in the fight against extremism more difficult. The floods are a huge setback to the Pakistani military's recent successes in the tribal areas along the Afghan border, and to the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan, he says. At the same time, Markey adds, they are an opportunity for Washington to show its commitment to Pakistan. Beyond offering humanitarian relief aid, Markey recommends that the United States open its markets to Pakistani textiles, an industry expected to suffer due to cotton crops' flood damage....

September 2, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

The US may be announcing the “withdrawal” of its combat forces – although six Advisory and Assistance brigade and ~ 50,000 men may remain up to the end of 2011. The fact is, however, that the US withdrawal is far from over, the Iraq War is not over, it is not “won,” and any form of stable end state in Iraq is probably impossible before 2020. In fact, Iraq is at as critical a stage as at any time since 2003. Regardless of the reasons for going to war, everything now depends on a successful transition to an effective and unified Iraqi government, and Iraqi security forces that can bring both security and stability to the average Iraqi. The creation of such an “end state” will take a minimum of another five years, and probably ten....

September 2, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

The North Caucasus experienced another deadly summer (May 1 – August 31, 2010). Although Chechnya and Ingushetia saw comparatively less violence than they did in Summer 2009, we observed a troubling rise in the level of violence in Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria. Dagestan proved the most deadly republic in the region, while Kabardio-Balkaria, normally a relatively quiet republic, incurred levels of violence surpassing Chechnya. Since 2008, CSIS staff has tracked, on a daily basis, incidents of violence occurring in the North Caucasus. We have released seven previous reports, the last of whichillustrated the dramatic rise in violence in Spring 2010. In this report, we present our data for Summer 2010 (May 1–August 31), paying particular attention to the geographic spread of the violence across the North Caucasus, most notably into Kabardino-Balkaria....

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

With the pullout of U.S. combat units completed, many Iraqis, even those who deplored the presence of foreign troops, are "fearful about what happens" if the U.S. withdraws completely next year as planned, says Jane Arraf, a long-time Baghdad correspondent who served as an Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow at CFR. Beyond concerns about whether Iraq will be able to defend itself when all U.S. troops have gone, there's also anxiety about the unsettled political situation. Arraf says Iraqis seem to be unable to forge a compromise between Ayad Allawi, the former prime minister, whose bloc had the most seats in last March's elections, and the current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. "We keep thinking that perhaps there's a lot going on beneath the surface, but apparently there isn't. It is what it is. It's stalled. There's talk about what to do, but nothing's been established yet."...

September 2, 2010
International Crisis Group

Abstract:

The January 2011 referendum on self-determination could result in Sudan’s partition, and the country’s North-South border may ultimately become the world’s newest international boundary. The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended two decades of civil war called for the border between the North and the semi-autonomous South to be demarcated within six months. Five years later, the task remains incomplete. The sooner the parties break the border deadlock the better, though the process need not necessarily be completed prior to the referendum as Khartoum has argued previously. Furthermore, a solution to the border is about not only drawing a line, but also defining the nature and management of that border and the future relations of communities on both sides. A “soft” boundary is ideal, one backed by a framework for cross-border arrangements and, if necessary, safeguarded by a joint monitoring mechanism. Progress toward both demarcating and defining the border will prevent it from becoming a source of renewed conflict in the post-CPA era....

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

Pakistan's floods have affected twenty million people and killed nearly sixteen hundred so far, according to the United Nations. The United States has been rallying international assistance for Pakistan; on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged additional aid at a UN meeting (BBC) boosting total U.S. flood aid to $150 million, and Senator John Kerry (D-MA) visited flood-ravaged areas in Pakistan to assess ongoing relief efforts. CFR Senior Fellow Daniel Markey says the floods have compounded Pakistan's challenges and made Washington's efforts in the fight against extremism more difficult. The floods are a huge setback to the Pakistani military's recent successes in the tribal areas along the Afghan border, and to the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan, he says. At the same time, Markey adds, they are an opportunity for Washington to show its commitment to Pakistan. Beyond offering humanitarian relief aid, Markey recommends that the United States open its markets to Pakistani textiles, an industry expected to suffer due to cotton crops' flood damage....

September 2, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

The US may be announcing the “withdrawal” of its combat forces – although six Advisory and Assistance brigade and ~ 50,000 men may remain up to the end of 2011. The fact is, however, that the US withdrawal is far from over, the Iraq War is not over, it is not “won,” and any form of stable end state in Iraq is probably impossible before 2020. In fact, Iraq is at as critical a stage as at any time since 2003. Regardless of the reasons for going to war, everything now depends on a successful transition to an effective and unified Iraqi government, and Iraqi security forces that can bring both security and stability to the average Iraqi. The creation of such an “end state” will take a minimum of another five years, and probably ten....

September 2, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

The North Caucasus experienced another deadly summer (May 1 – August 31, 2010). Although Chechnya and Ingushetia saw comparatively less violence than they did in Summer 2009, we observed a troubling rise in the level of violence in Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria. Dagestan proved the most deadly republic in the region, while Kabardio-Balkaria, normally a relatively quiet republic, incurred levels of violence surpassing Chechnya. Since 2008, CSIS staff has tracked, on a daily basis, incidents of violence occurring in the North Caucasus. We have released seven previous reports, the last of whichillustrated the dramatic rise in violence in Spring 2010. In this report, we present our data for Summer 2010 (May 1–August 31), paying particular attention to the geographic spread of the violence across the North Caucasus, most notably into Kabardino-Balkaria....

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

With the pullout of U.S. combat units completed, many Iraqis, even those who deplored the presence of foreign troops, are "fearful about what happens" if the U.S. withdraws completely next year as planned, says Jane Arraf, a long-time Baghdad correspondent who served as an Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow at CFR. Beyond concerns about whether Iraq will be able to defend itself when all U.S. troops have gone, there's also anxiety about the unsettled political situation. Arraf says Iraqis seem to be unable to forge a compromise between Ayad Allawi, the former prime minister, whose bloc had the most seats in last March's elections, and the current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. "We keep thinking that perhaps there's a lot going on beneath the surface, but apparently there isn't. It is what it is. It's stalled. There's talk about what to do, but nothing's been established yet."...

September 2, 2010
Social Science Research Network

Abstract:

There are an estimated 250,000 child soldiers - boys and girls under the age of 18- who are being compelled to serve in more than 15 conflicts worldwide. Child soldiers are forcibly recruited or abducted and are used as combatants, messengers, porters, cooks and to provide sexual services. International Law now recognizes child soldiers as victims of war crimes. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security, however, has opposed asylum to child soldiers on the grounds that their military service subjects them to the “persecutor bar.” This article argues that a per se bar of child soldiers from asylum contradicts the U.S.’s adherence to the international view that the use of child soldiers constitutes a violation of human rights, domestic laws declaring recruitment of child soldiers a crime, and active support of the eradication of the use of child soldiers. The article concludes by offering an approach to determining when a child soldier should be subjected to the persecutor bar that balances the seriousness of the child soldier’s actions against the circumstances under which s/he was recruited....

August 30, 2010
Combating Terrorism Center // West Point

Abstract:

This issue includes the following articles: AQAP’s Growing Security Threat to Saudi Arabia, by Caryle Murphy; Assessing AQI’s Resilience After April’s Leadership Decapitations, by Myriam Benraad; The Return of Moqtada al-Sadr and the Revival of the Mahdi Army, by Babak Rahimi; Indoctrinating Children: The Making of Pakistan’s Suicide Bombers, by Kalsoom Lakhani; The Third Way: A Paradigm for Influence in the Marketplace of Ideas, by Scott Helfstein; Still Fighting for Revolution: Greece’s New Generation of Terrorists, by George Kassimeris;...

August 24, 2010
Journal of Humanitarian Assistance // Feinstein International Center

Abstract:

In an effort to help practitioners develop and implement better disarmament, demobilization and reintegration programs (DDR) programs, this article identifies the problems and “best practices” of DDR programs put forward in the literature and contextualizes them within the on-going philosophical debate between the proponents of the universalism of children’s rights and the proponents of the cultural relativity of childhood and children’s rights. By contextualizing the practical within the philosophical, we can see how the current impasse of the philosophical debate and its framing of the practical issues leads to important gaps and blind spots in the research and evaluation of DDR programming....

August 12, 2010
Human Rights Watch

Abstract:

The Ugandan rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has abducted more than 697 adults and children in a largely unreported campaign in the Central African Republic and the neighboring Bas Uele district of northern Democratic Republic of Congo over the past 18 months, Human Rights Watch said today. Nearly one-third of those abducted have been children, many of whom are being forced to serve as soldiers or are being used for sex by the group's fighters. During the abduction campaign, the LRA has brutally killed adults and children who tried to escape, walked too slowly, or were unable to bear the heavy loads they were forced to carry, Human Rights Watch found in its investigations in the region. The LRA has killed at least 255 adults and children, often by crushing their skulls with clubs. In dozens of cases, the LRA forced captive children to kill other children and adults. Human Rights Watch called on the affected governments and their allies to strengthen their protection of civilians and to put greater emphasis on efforts to rescue the abducted children and others. "The LRA continues its horrific campaign to replenish its ranks by brutally tearing children from their villages and forcing them to fight," said Anneke Van Woudenberg, senior Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch. "The evidence points to Joseph Kony, the LRA leader, as the author of this atrocious campaign." A month-long Human Rights Watch research mission to the Central African Republic (CAR) and the Bas Uele district of northern Congo from July 12 to August 11, 2010, in which over 520 civilians were interviewed, including 90 former abductees, in individual and focus group interviews, found that the LRA's abduction campaign was similar in both countries and is having a devastating impact on affected communities....

August 10, 2010
Human Security Report Project

Abstract:

The Pakistan Conflict Monitor is an initiative of the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. The Monitor highlights new research and analysis on the conflict in Pakistan. In addition to the conflict itself, the Monitor focuses on a broad set of related issue-areas, including health, development, displacement, governance, gender, small arms, landmines, human rights and transitional justice. The Monitor provides summaries of academic articles and reports, and links to key documents, publications, organizations, and data. In addition to keeping up to date on the news via their web-browser, users of the Monitor can also sign up to receive the latest posts via email or RSS feeds. In producing these services, Human Security Report Project staff systematically monitor over 1,500 websites, as well as dozens of e-mailing lists and academic journals....

August 18, 2010
Congressional Research Service

Abstract:

This report focuses on the nexus between security and environmental concerns in Pakistan that have the potential to affect American security and foreign policy interests. Environmental concerns include, but are not limited to, water and food scarcity, natural disasters, and the effects of climate change. Environmental stresses, when combined with the other socio-economic and political stresses on Pakistan, have the potential to further weaken an already weak Pakistani state. The report examines the potentially destabilizing effect that, when combined with Pakistan’s demographic trends and limited economic development, water scarcity, limited arable land, and food security may have on an already radicalized internal and destabilized international politicalsecurity environment. The report considers the especially important hypothesis that the combination of these factors could contribute to Pakistan’s decline as a fully functioning state, creating new, or expanding existing, largely ungoverned areas. Environmental factors could also expand the ranks of the dispossessed in Pakistan, which could lead to greater recruitment for radical Islamist groups operating in Pakistan or Afghanistan. The potential for environmental factors to stoke conflict between the nuclear armed states of India and Pakistan is also a concern. Preliminary findings by experts seem to indicate that existing environmental problems in Pakistan are sufficiently significant to warrant a close watch, especially when combined with Pakistan’s limited resilience due to mounting demographic stresses, internal political instability, security challenges, and limited economic resources....

June 17, 2010
Institute for Security Studies // L'Institut d'Etudes de Sécurité

Abstract:

This monograph contains papers that were presented at the International Conference on Climate Change and Natural Resources Conflicts in Africa, 14–15 May 2009, Entebbe, Uganda, organised by the Environment Security Programme (ESP) of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Nairobi Office. The climate change phenomenon is a global concern, which typically threatens the sustainability of the livelihoods of the majority of the population living in the developing countries. Africa, particularly the sub-Saharan region, is likely to be negatively impacted by climate variability and change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Africa’s vulnerability arises from a combination of many factors, including extreme poverty, a high rate of population increase, frequent natural disasters such as droughts and floods, and agricultural systems (both crop and livestock production) that depend heavily on rainfall. Extreme natural occurrences such as floods and droughts are becoming increasingly frequent and severe. Africa’s high vulnerability to the negative impacts of climate variability and change is also attributed to its low adaptive capacity. Climate variability and change have further exacerbated the scarcity of natural resources on the African continent, leading to conflicts with regard to access to, and ownership and use of these resources. The scarcity of natural resources is known to trigger competition for the meagre resources available among both individuals and communities, and even institutions, thus affecting human security on the continent....

April 23, 2010
The Finnish Institute of International Affairs // Ulkopoliittinen Instituutti

Abstract:

This paper discusses the diverging perceptions and responses of Middle Eastern Arab states to the issue of climate change. It shows how these states’ policies at the regional and international level have been shaped, even conditioned, by motivations of economic security of the oil revenue-dependent states in the region. It also points out the problems of this kind of an approach and gives suggestions and justifications for a more balanced policy approach to climate change. It is argued that the Gulf oil exporting monarchies need to take a more constructive and balanced approach to international climate change mitigation, as this is the precondition for achieving functional regional cooperation in this area. In the future, failing to cooperate regionally will exacerbate climate change-induced problems and instability in the entire region. Climate change is by its nature a transboundary problem. The Middle East is considered to be one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to its negative impacts. This is even more significant given that the Middle East is also one of the most volatile regions in the world in terms of inter- and intrastate conflict and instability....

March 25, 2010
International Relations and Security Network

Abstract:

Conflicts prompted by environmental factors are multifaceted and require cultural sensitivity and vision to resolve, Dr Kurt Spillmann tells the ISN.

March 16, 2010
Political Geography

Abstract:

Climate change is increasingly been called a ‘security’ problem, and there has been speculation that climate change may increase the risk of violent conflict. This paper integrates three disparate but wellfounded bodies of research e on the vulnerability of local places and social groups to climate change, on livelihoods and violent conflict, and the role of the state in development and peacemaking, to offer new insights into the relationships between climate change, human security, and violent conflict. It explains that climate change increasingly undermines human security in the present day, and will increasingly do so in the future, by reducing access to, and the quality of, natural resources that are important to sustain livelihoods. Climate change is also likely to undermine the capacity of states to provide the opportunities and services that help people to sustain their livelihoods. We argue that in certain circumstances these direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human security may in turn increase the risk of violent conflict. The paper then outlines the broad contours of a research programme to guide empirical investigations into the risks climate change poses to human security and peace....

September 1, 2010
Crisis States Research Centre // London School of Economics // Development Studies Institute

Abstract:

This paper considers the reasons behind Zambia's avoidance of civil war, despite persistent regional instability, focusing on the inclusiveness of the country's 'elite bargain', i.e. the inter-group distribution of access to positions of state power. The author hypothesizes that, although colonial rule left Zambia with high levels of social fragmentation - evident in pronounced tribal, linguistic and class cleavages - the country's post-colonial governments have all managed to accommodate the colonial legacy of high social fragmentation by forging and maintaining inclusive elite bargains. The paper argues that this achievement can be directly related to the avoidance of civil war since independence in 1964....

August 25, 2010
United States Institute of Peace

Abstract:

About 150 leading policymakers, scholars, diplomats, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) leaders participated in a conference entitled “Preventing Violent Conflict: Principles, Policies and Practice,” organized by the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention on July 1, 2010. This Peace Brief summarizes the presentations from each panel discussion. The central focus was on the unique challenges and opportunities associated with preventing the initial onset of large-scale violence, i.e. primary prevention. Conflict prevention is widely endorsed in principle—including in the 2010 U.S. National Security Strategy— but too rarely put into serious practice. It is thus important to narrow the gap between rhetoric and action in preventing violent conflicts. The interest of elites in exploiting ethnic differences for political gains, the absence of well-established mechanisms for prevention in certain regions, and the destabilizing role of external meddling continue to impede the development of effective prevention strategies. Yet, much progress has been made in the field of conflict prevention, both at the normative and the operational levels. As a crucial actor in conflict prevention, the United States should work with others to forge a consistent approach to countries at risk, urge countries to deal with arbitrary borders through negotiation rather than violence, and support greater cooperation between regional organizations....

August 23, 2010
RAND Corporation

Abstract:

Deterrence of terrorism is best approached as part of a broader effort to influence elements of the terrorist system. Although efforts to deter or otherwise influence will only sometimes succeed, to forgo attempting influence because of uncertainty would be to squander the possibility of extremely valuable effects (e.g., averting a terrorist mass-casualty attack). That is, deterrence and other influence efforts are desirable because of their upside potential rather than the certainty or expectation of good results. This paper selectively reviews prior work on such matters and then goes on to argue that a useful way to find influence stratagems with high upside potential is to construct plausible alternative models of adversary decisionmaking and behavior—models that also allow for variability. A stratagem found worthless if assessed with a best estimate of adversary behavior might instead look attractive when viewed with plausible alternative models. This is significant because best estimates are often wrong when made about people in different cultures and settings being viewed emotionally from afar. Further, the mind-sets and behaviors of terrorists—like those of people more generally—vary with circumstances and recent history. Thus, opening our minds to possibilities can be valuable and alternative models can help. To protect against wishful thinking and other problems, of course, a proposed stratagem must also be assessed by its cost and potential side effects. This paper builds on a 2002 monograph (Davis and Jenkins, 2002) and a good deal of more recent research. It has been most influenced by lessons from a recent project reviewing the social science of terrorism (Davis and Cragin, 2009), but also by a book describing the perspectives of participants in al-Qaeda and related movements (Stout, Huckabey, and Schindler, 2008), a book on terrorism and political violence (Gupta, 2008), a new edition of an overview of terrorism (Hoffman, 2006), a book on prospects for nuclear terrorism (Jenkins, 2008), several sources drawing on Israeli experience (Doron, 2004; Ganor, 2005; Bar, 2008), and a recent paper focused on homeland security (Morral and Jackson, 2009)....

August 23, 2010
The Stanley Foundation

Abstract:

In 2003, more than a decade of civil war had cost more than 250,000 lives, earning Liberia The Economist’s dubious distinction as “the world’s worst place to live.” Seven years later, increasing stability in the country reflects the substantial progress that can be achieved by determined national leadership, active international community engagement, and realistic approaches to post-conflict peacebuilding efforts. Central actors in the immediate post-conflict period reflect on lessons learned from the implementation of Liberian disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration and security sector reform programs. Rooted in the concepts of human security and building basic state institutions, their approaches reveal telling insights with potential resonance across the diverse spectrum of post-conflict experience....

August 23, 2010
International Crisis Group

Abstract:

The Pogroms in Kyrgyzstan, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, highlights the risk of spiralling violence in the south of Kyrgyzstan and the central government’s loss of control over the region. It calls for the Kyrgyz government to support an internationally backed enquiry into the pogroms which took place in May and June 2010 in Jalalabad and in Osh. It also urges the international community to form a united front in calling on the Kyrgyz government to address the root causes of the violence, and in warning the country’s leadership of the dangers of inaction and denial. [...] Successive governments have failed to address ethnic tensions in the south or even to admit their existence. Many features of the 2010 violence strongly resemble the last round of bloody ethnic clashes, in 1990. One of the most striking differences, however, is that twenty years ago, a large number of elite Soviet troops were deployed in the region for six months to normalise the situation. This time, a weaker government facing a greater challenge has refused any external help, unrealistically arguing that it can handle the situation itself. In fact, the government has now lost control of a significant part of southern Kyrgyzstan, where the mayor of Osh, Melis Myrzakmatov, publicly rejects the president’s authority. The Kyrgyz government should take a strong public stand against positions of extreme nationalism by prominent national and regional politicians. The government of Kyrgyzstan, as well as donors and supporters, should support a full, open and internationally backed enquiry into the recent pogroms. Given the weakness of the Kyrgyz government, responsibility rests upon the shoulders of the international community. It should play a more forthright role than usual in raising the long-term dangers to Kyrgyzstan of extremism, the need to restore the central government’s political control over the city of Osh, and the urgent necessity of reconciliation between ethnic communities....

September 2, 2010
International Crisis Group

Abstract:

The January 2011 referendum on self-determination could result in Sudan’s partition, and the country’s North-South border may ultimately become the world’s newest international boundary. The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended two decades of civil war called for the border between the North and the semi-autonomous South to be demarcated within six months. Five years later, the task remains incomplete. The sooner the parties break the border deadlock the better, though the process need not necessarily be completed prior to the referendum as Khartoum has argued previously. Furthermore, a solution to the border is about not only drawing a line, but also defining the nature and management of that border and the future relations of communities on both sides. A “soft” boundary is ideal, one backed by a framework for cross-border arrangements and, if necessary, safeguarded by a joint monitoring mechanism. Progress toward both demarcating and defining the border will prevent it from becoming a source of renewed conflict in the post-CPA era....

September 2, 2010
Institute for Security Studies // L'Institut d'Etudes de Sécurité

Abstract:

The Burundi peace process has essentially been completed. At the time of writing this monograph (August 2009), the last rebel group to the conflict, Parti pour la Liberation du Peuple Hutu – Forces Nationales de Libération (PALIPEHUTU-FNL), had just begun its Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) process and had been registered as a political party. This monograph will focus on the role played by peacekeeping missions in the Burundian peace process to ensure that agreements signed by parties to the conflict were adhered to and implemented. The deployment of peacekeeping missions went full circle and more. An African Union (AU) peace mission followed by a United Nations (UN) mission replaced the initial South African Protection Support Detachment (SAPSD). Because the peace process had not yet been completed, and because of the return of the PALIPEHUTU-FNL to Burundi, the UN Security Council (UNSC) approved the redeployment of an AU mission to oversee the completion of the final phase by December 2008....

September 2, 2010
Institute for Security Studies // L'Institut d'Etudes de Sécurité

Abstract:

On 23 July 2010, the eve of the African Union’s Summit in Kampala, AU Commission chairperson Jean Ping announced that he had asked countries, including South Africa, Angola, Nigeria, Ghana and Guinea, to send troops to Somalia to boost the under-strength African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), currently comprising Ugandan and Burundian forces. This move came against the background of suicide bombing attacks on 11 July 2010 that had killed 79 people in the Ugandan capital. Al-Shabaab, the militant Somali organisation with undefined links to al-Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the bombings, explaining that these were retribution for Ugandan and Burundian violence against the civilian population in Mogadishu. It would appear that the bombings were also aimed at testing the endurance of Uganda as a contributing country, as well as the resolve of other AU member states that may be contemplating contributing towards the required troop surge. AMISOM was first deployed in 2007 to protect the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and strategic infrastructures (the port and airport) in Mogadishu from the insurgents who had strengthened their position as Ethiopian forces withdrew, and to provide support for humanitarian assistance for the Somali population. The proposed additional deployment to Somalia must be viewed in the context of the chronically unstable situation in Mogadishu and in Somalia as a whole. In a nutshell, the AU decision to reinforce AMISOM by almost 2 000 troops would increase the size of the force from its current level of around 6 300 (4 Ugandan and 3 Burundian battalions), to the 8 000 mandated in 2007. Some AU member states had even called for the force to be augmented to between 14 000 and 20 000 troops. This Policy Brief examines the apparent urgency to increase AMISOM force levels. It interrogates the AU’s interventionist strategy in Somalia, including the planned troop surge, analyses the terrorist dimension of the bombings, drawing parallels with the Afghanistan case as a basis for suggestions for a clear and holistic approach to the conflict in Somalia....

September 1, 2010
Norwegian Peacebuilding Centre

Abstract:

Failed bilateral talks over these past 16 years have shown that a Middle East peace accord can never be reached by the parties themselves. Israeli governments believe they can defy international condemnation of their illegal colonial project in the West Bank because they can count on the US to oppose international sanctions. Bilateral talks that are not framed by US-formulated parameters (based on Security Council resolutions, the Oslo accords, the Arab Peace Initiative, the “road map” and other previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements) cannot succeed. This paper focuses on the other major obstacle to a permanent status agreement: the absence of an effective Palestinian interlocutor. Addressing Hamas’ legitimate grievances – and as noted in a recent CENTCOM report, Hamas has legitimate grievances – could lead to its return to a Palestinian coalition government that would provide Israel with a credible peace partner. If that outreach fails because of Hamas’ rejectionism, the organization’s ability to prevent a reasonable accord negotiated by other Palestinian political parties will have been significantly impeded. If the Obama administration will not lead an international initiative to define the parameters of an Israeli-Palestinian agreement and actively promote Palestinian political reconciliation, Europe must do so, and hope America will follow. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet that can guarantee the goal of “two states living side by side in peace and security.” But President Obama’s present course absolutely precludes it....

August 30, 2010
Center for International Peace Operations

Abstract:

A world map providing an overview of crisis prevention and peace operations in 2009 - current as of April 2009.

August 26, 2010
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars // Mexico Institute // University of San Diego // Trans-border Institute

Abstract:

This essay proposes to briefly describe and analyze the evolution of the Army and Navy’s role in drug interdiction, focusing on the patterns that have emerged since 1995, when the Army accepted responsibility for that task without any internal opposition. I will argue that Mexican national security priorities have shifted significantly, focusing on domestic security issues, specifically drug-related criminal activity and violence. In response to the government’s emphasis on drug-related crime, civil authorities have relied increasingly on the armed forces to carry out an aggressive anti-drug mission. The increased role of the military in carrying out these assignments has produced significant changes within the Mexican Navy and the Army, and in their relationship with the American armed forces. Citizen views of the Mexican armed forces as an institution, its performance of the anti-drug mission, and its reactions to increased levels of personal insecurity, have altered Mexican perceptions of national sovereignty and the United States’ role in their country. Finally, the role of the Catholic Church as an increasingly influential actor in government attempts to curb the drug cartels, as well as the source of potential conflict with the armed forces over growing numbers of human rights abuses, are essential to understanding the consequences of the military’s anti-drug mission....

August 26, 2010
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars // Mexico Institute // University of San Diego // Trans-border Institute

Abstract:

This paper explores two fundamental questions pertaining to Mexico’s ongoing public security crisis. First, why has Mexico experienced this sudden increase in violence among trafficking organizations? Second, what are the current efforts and prospective strategies available to counter Mexican drug trafficking networks? In the process, we explore the development of Mexico’s DTOs, with particular emphasis on the relatively stable equilibrium among such groups in the 1980s and the subsequent fracturing of that arrangement. We also identify and consider the merits of four conceivable scenarios for managing drug use —complicity with traffickers, confrontation of traffickers, prevention and treatment, or tolerating consumption— all of which have significant limits or undesirable effects....

August 26, 2010
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars // Mexico Institute // University of San Diego // Trans-border Institute

Abstract:

As stories of crime and violence play out in the headlines, Mexico is in the midst of a major transformation of its judicial sector. Mexico has been gradually implementing a series of reforms that advocates hope will dramatically improve public security and the administration of justice over the next decade. Central to the process of judicial reform in Mexico is a package of ambitious legislative changes and constitutional amendments passed by the Mexican Congress in 2008, and to be implemented throughout the country by 2016. Together, these reforms touch virtually all aspects of the judicial sector, including police, prosecutors, public defenders, the courts, and the penitentiary system. The reforms include significant changes in Mexican criminal procedure, new measures to promote greater access to justice (for both criminal defendants and crime victims), new functions for law enforcement and public security agencies in the administration of justice, and tougher measures for combating organized crime. This paper helps to fill the gap in our current understanding of these problems by explaining Mexico’s justice sector challenges, the specific changes proposed under the 2008 reform package, and the challenges that lie in store for Mexico as it implements judicial sector reforms over the next decade....

August 26, 2010
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars // Mexico Institute // University of San Diego // Trans-border Institute

Abstract:

While Mexico is having some limited success dealing with its spiraling conflict, vulnerable States in Central America are struggling to keep the organized criminal groups at bay, even while they face other challenges such as widespread gang activity. Problems are particularly acute in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, three States with vast coastlines, large ungoverned spaces and the greatest proximity to Mexico. However, geography is only part of the problem. Armed conflicts in Guatemala, El Salvador and parts of Honduras between 1960 and the mid-1990s laid the foundations for the weapons trafficking, money laundering and contraband traffic that we are witnessing today. This chapter is about drug trafficking organizations (DTO) operating in Central America. It is broken down by theme rather than by country. It provides a brief history of DTO activity in the region; descriptions of who operates the DTOs, both locally and internationally, and their modus operandi; the use of street gangs in DTO activities; DTO penetration in government and security forces; local, regional and international efforts and challenges as they try and combat DTOs. The chapter is centered on the three countries where the problem of DTOs appears to be the most acute: Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras....

August 24, 2010
Global Consortium on Security Transformation

Abstract:

Medellin, the second biggest city in Colombia, experienced an impressive transformation after 2002 when a combination of national and local initiatives succeeded in dramatically reducing acute levels of violence. After being the most violent city in the world, Medellin became a successful case of urban security transformation. The aim of this research was to explore the role played by civil society in that process. However, not long before this project began, the security situation started to deteriorate in the poor communities of Medellin. The vacuum of power created by the extradition of a demobilized paramilitary leader had triggered wars between gangs and criminal groups. This made it necessary to explore not only the limitations of the recent security transformation, which is now in question, but also the way this outbreak of violence is aecting communities and the role that civil society can play in this context. In the first section this document presents an overview of the insecurity context of Medellin prior to the transformation started in 2002. The second section discusses the problems with the role that civil society is asked to play within current frameworks for security transformation, such as Security Sector Reform (SSR) and current models of democratic security governance in Latin America....

September 1, 2010
United Nations University // World Institute for Development Economics Research

Abstract:

The paper examines the relationship between conflict and entrepreneurial activity in Afghanistan, drawing upon a unique data set, the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment household survey 2005. Afghanistan is severely underdeveloped and poor. Conflict has persisted in vast swathes of the country for decades, so that Afghanistan may be more appropriately described as an in-, rather than post-, conflict country. At the same time, qualitative (and anecdotal) evidence suggests that entrepreneurial activity is ubiquitous, although mainly due to survival strategies rather than a spirit of entrepreneurialism. We empirically explore whether conflict affects the likelihood of a household to engage in entrepreneurial activity, proxied by sources of income coming from holding a small business. We control for the household characteristics and those of the environment, such as social capital, access to resources and infrastructure, as well as the presence of a minimal institutional governance system, to isolate the impact of conflict on household entrepreneurial behaviour. We find that the direct negative effect of the conflict on entrepreneurship is very small. The results on the control variables suggest that (i) the generation of entrepreneurship has seen conflict and instability for a whole life,( ii) a small business is a mean of surviving in a situation where any other support is lacking, (iii) it is a viable strategy when the household can cover some of the associated risks, (iv) there is no indirect effect of conflict via institutions and infrastructure, and (v) entrepreneurial activity may substitute for lacking markets and governance institutions. These results call for further and more in-depth research on Afghanistan as an overlooked area of study by the academic and development research community despite representing a priority for internationally supported reconstruction....

August 25, 2010
The Jamestown Foundation // Terrorism Monitor

Abstract:

Afghanistan’s President, Hamid Karzai, gave a speech on August 7 at the Civil Services Institute in Kabul in which he discussed his government’s reliance on foreign consultants and the role of private security firms. He proposed cuts to the former, and in the case of the latter, outright closure – heavily critical of what he argued is their role in perpetuating violence and instability in the country. Karzai’s speech was hardly surprising in its content, and was illustrative of a longer-term concern, both in Afghanistan and in the West, with commercial providers of security and military services on the one hand, and their close cousins, warlords and private militias, on the other. Karzai’s speech also came at a time of heightened sensitivity to several issues: • Blurring of the conceptual lines between private militias, private security firms and local policing or self-defense units. • Past damage caused to Afghanistan and its people by private armies and their potential to do more of the same now and in the future. • American interest in bolstering local self-defense and policing capacity – with its clear potential as a militia feeder. • Endemic Afghan government corruption. • Anxiety over the withdrawal from ISAF of troop contributing states over the next few years....

August 20, 2010
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development // Development Co-operation Directorate

Abstract:

Although the current crisis is an important backdrop to this report, the full effects are yet to be seen. A variety of factors require monitoring over coming months: pressure on Official Development Assistance (ODA) budgets, falling migrants’ remittances, a squeeze on foreign reserves in US dollars and further terms of trade shocks. It is already clear, however, that net private capital flows to fragile states have dropped. For example, mining investment in the Democratic Republic of Congo has plummeted after the drop of commodity prices and 200,000 mining workers have been laid off. There may be new situations of fragility, and countries that are emerging from conflict and fragility may relapse. Globally, almost 100 million extra people will be trapped in poverty by the slowdown in economic growth, on top of around 130 million people directly affected by the big rise in food prices in 2007....

August 20, 2010
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development // Development Co-operation Directorate

Abstract:

In recent years, there has been increased interest in understanding how donor interventions in situations of fragility and conflict can contribute tot he processes of statebuilding. While external actors cannot determine the outcome of those processes, they can target their assistance to support positive statebuilding dynamics. Donors must ensure that they "do no harm" and consider both the intended and unintended consequences of their interventions. This publication fills an important knowledge gap by addressing two fundamental questions: what are the negative impacts that donor interventions can have on statebuilding; and what measures should donors adopt to avoid negative impacts on statebuilding processes? Do No Harm argues that the challenges of statebuilding are such that donors must develop a sophisticated understanding of political processes, patterns of state-society relations and sources of legitimacy in the countries where they are oeprating. Based on an extensive literature review and on six country case-studies (Afghanistan, Bolivia, the Democratic Republic of Congo [DRC], Nepal, Rwanda and Sierra Leon), Do No Harm offers a valuable addition to our knowledge on statebuilding in situations of fragility and conflict....

August 20, 2010
London School of Economics // PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP // Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Abstract:

The challenges of state-building in Afghanistan today start with the structure of the state, as dictated by the Bonn Process and "inherited" by the international donors of today. The factors influencing the structure of the government are the subject of the present section. As a result of the choices made by international and local actors in the early years of the intervention, a second set of dilemmas and considerations exist, which represent the decisions and dilemmas facing donors at the present time. The second set of dilemmas, the donors' reactions to them, and the consequences that these reactions have had for state-building will be dealt with in the main findings section of this paper....

September 1, 2010
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs // Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

Abstract:

Rule of law reforms in Liberia over the past five years serve as a clear example of how the international community has failed on this point, as the country’s own practices have been generally neglected in the process. Characteristically, there is little updated information on the customary law and traditional practices of Liberia. In investigating how the international community addresses SGBV in Liberia, we found within the liberal peacekeeping/building paradigm few analytical tools that could be used to gain a solid understanding of the host country ‘from below’. This area of society remains a professional blind-spot and represents a gap in the efforts of the international peacekeeping/-building community to build a sustainable peace in the country....

August 24, 2010
Global Consortium on Security Transformation

Abstract:

Some people(s) are more aected by and less protected from these sources of insecurity. Particular communities become more disadvantaged for reasons ranging from economic deprivation, state ideology, ethnic background, physical disabilities, religion, sexual identity and/or orientation, age, class and color. This research is on the human security demands of a number of civil society actors representing and/or working for some of the poor, less powerful and marginalized segments of society in Turkey which this paper refers to as communities of (in)security. Ten civil society actors representing and/or working for certain segments of Kurdish people, women wearing headscarves, physically disabled people, gypsies, homeless children, asylum seekers, the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and transsexual community and women are examined in this paper. With the term communities of (in)security, the paper seeks to highlight communities of people who experience various insecurities within the supposedly peaceful security communities (of states) in the world and take action to eradicate their insecurities....

August 24, 2010
Feinstein International Center // Save the Children

Abstract:

This joint publication by the Feinstein International Center and Save the Children in Uganda examines the perspectives and experiences of communities in the southern Karamoja region of Uganda regarding natural resources and conflict. The study set out to better understand local views on this topic in response to the assumption in policy circles that resource scarcity or competition drives the conflict in this pastoral and agro-pastoral area. We found that while sites of natural resource exploitation are often insecure, respondents in the study population did not attribute this to direct conflict over the resources themselves. Rather, violence is common in these locations because opposing groups are most likely to come into contact with each other at these sites. On the flip side, respondents stressed that peace allows for better sharing of resources and better management of resource scarcity in times of stress or hardship. We found increased and heavy exploitation of natural resources as part of survival subsistence strategies. The collection and sale of firewood by women has become the primary means of supporting households in most study sites. Resources accessed by women (including firewood and wild fruits and vegetables) have gained prominence in household livelihood strategies at the same time that resources important to pastoral livelihoods – namely pasture and watering points for animals —- have decreased in relevance due to the loss of animals to disease, insecurity, or restrictions on mobility. This governance gap in customary systems is mirrored by a gap at the official level caused by lack of capacity, funding, and political will among district authorities. In examining barriers to natural resources, we found that access to resources was perceived as a much greater problem than availability of resources at the local level. Insecurity was the main obstacle to accessing resources, and threat of attack was as substantial a barrier as actual or reported attacks. Men and women had very different perspectives on the importance of different resources, and responses aligned closely with traditional gendered divisions of labor and the associated resources consumed....

August 23, 2010
United Nations // Department of Peacekeeping Operations // Department of Field Support

Abstract:

In 2009, the Office of Military Affairs and the Gender Unit of the Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) initiated a process to develop for the first time guidelines for Integrating a Gender Perspective into the Work of the United Nations Military in Peacekeeping Operations. The guidelines are intended to enhance the operational effectiveness of United Nations peacekeeping operations by serving as a tool to guide practical translation of existing Security Council mandates on women, peace and security in the work of military components. They aim to support military personnel in recognizing and addressing the security priorities of all sectors of the local population—women, men, boys and girls—in a peacekeeping context. They will further inform the content of training activities targeted at military peacekeeping personnel. The guidelines, while acknowledging the integrated nature of peacekeeping activities, are designed to focus specifically on the tasks of military peacekeepers within a broader integrated framework. They are presented in three sections, corresponding to the three levels of military engagement in peacekeeping: strategic, operational and tactical levels of military command and operations, in accordance with mandated tasks and working conditions. The guidelines have been informed by contributions of peacekeeping missions, major troop contributing countries and partners in regional organizations. The guidelines will be field-tested for a period of two years, and will be updated thereafter....

August 19, 2010
Centre for Conflict Resolution // Southern African Development Community // Republic of Austria Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs

Abstract:

In recent years, the African Union; its socio-economic programme, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD); and Africa’s regional economic communities (RECs) – the Southern African Development Community (SADC); the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS); the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS); the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); and the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) – have increasingly recognised that peace, security and democratic governance are the preconditions for sustainable development. The AU’s protocol relating to its 15- member Peace and Security Council (PSC) – established in 2004 – and the security mechanisms of the RECs advocate the creation of a more robust, Africa-wide system of peacemaking, peacekeeping and post-conflict peacebuilding. The need for the adoption of such a comprehensive strategy led NEPAD and the AU to develop post-conflict reconstruction frameworks in June 2005 and July 2006, respectively. The AU’s framework emphasises the links between the peace, security, humanitarian and development dimensions of peacekeeping and peacebuilding, and suggests that individual countries should develop peacebuilding strategies in response to their particular situations. A critical question that was asked at the Johannesburg seminar was whether the AU should focus on peacemaking and peacekeeping, and leave peacebuilding to the better-resourced and more experienced United Nations (UN)....

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

With the pullout of U.S. combat units completed, many Iraqis, even those who deplored the presence of foreign troops, are "fearful about what happens" if the U.S. withdraws completely next year as planned, says Jane Arraf, a long-time Baghdad correspondent who served as an Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow at CFR. Beyond concerns about whether Iraq will be able to defend itself when all U.S. troops have gone, there's also anxiety about the unsettled political situation. Arraf says Iraqis seem to be unable to forge a compromise between Ayad Allawi, the former prime minister, whose bloc had the most seats in last March's elections, and the current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. "We keep thinking that perhaps there's a lot going on beneath the surface, but apparently there isn't. It is what it is. It's stalled. There's talk about what to do, but nothing's been established yet."...

September 2, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

The US may be announcing the “withdrawal” of its combat forces – although six Advisory and Assistance brigade and ~ 50,000 men may remain up to the end of 2011. The fact is, however, that the US withdrawal is far from over, the Iraq War is not over, it is not “won,” and any form of stable end state in Iraq is probably impossible before 2020. In fact, Iraq is at as critical a stage as at any time since 2003. Regardless of the reasons for going to war, everything now depends on a successful transition to an effective and unified Iraqi government, and Iraqi security forces that can bring both security and stability to the average Iraqi. The creation of such an “end state” will take a minimum of another five years, and probably ten....

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

Afghanistan's parliamentary elections, set for September 18, will be seen as a test of that country's stability nine years after the U.S.-led invasion, and three months before U.S. President Barack Obama reviews progress in the war effort. But if balloting is meant to serve as a litmus test for a military campaign that continues to sputter along, Afghanistan analyst Candace Rondeaux says the West should prepare for disappointment. For one, a surge in pre-election violence, coupled with a growing list of corrupt candidates, will discourage many Afghans from voting, Rondeaux says. Changes to the Afghan-run commission that investigates electoral fraud will also make a free and fair tally unlikely, she says. And while parliament has in recent months exhibited a willingness to challenge President Hamid Karzai on numerous issues, the corrupt lineup of candidates running this time makes it unlikely such independence will continue, she says....

September 2, 2010
Institute for Security Studies // L'Institut d'Etudes de Sécurité

Abstract:

The Burundi peace process has essentially been completed. At the time of writing this monograph (August 2009), the last rebel group to the conflict, Parti pour la Liberation du Peuple Hutu – Forces Nationales de Libération (PALIPEHUTU-FNL), had just begun its Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) process and had been registered as a political party. This monograph will focus on the role played by peacekeeping missions in the Burundian peace process to ensure that agreements signed by parties to the conflict were adhered to and implemented. The deployment of peacekeeping missions went full circle and more. An African Union (AU) peace mission followed by a United Nations (UN) mission replaced the initial South African Protection Support Detachment (SAPSD). Because the peace process had not yet been completed, and because of the return of the PALIPEHUTU-FNL to Burundi, the UN Security Council (UNSC) approved the redeployment of an AU mission to oversee the completion of the final phase by December 2008....

September 1, 2010
Crisis States Research Centre // London School of Economics // Development Studies Institute

Abstract:

This paper considers the reasons behind Zambia's avoidance of civil war, despite persistent regional instability, focusing on the inclusiveness of the country's 'elite bargain', i.e. the inter-group distribution of access to positions of state power. The author hypothesizes that, although colonial rule left Zambia with high levels of social fragmentation - evident in pronounced tribal, linguistic and class cleavages - the country's post-colonial governments have all managed to accommodate the colonial legacy of high social fragmentation by forging and maintaining inclusive elite bargains. The paper argues that this achievement can be directly related to the avoidance of civil war since independence in 1964....

August 12, 2010
The Century Foundation

Abstract:

Afghanistan Watch is a blog initiated by Carl Robichaud of The Century Foundation. The blog is no longer updated frequently, but it does offer an archive of news, analysis and commentary on governance, security, and policy, going back to 2004.

August 10, 2010
Human Security Report Project

Abstract:

The Pakistan Conflict Monitor is an initiative of the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. The Monitor highlights new research and analysis on the conflict in Pakistan. In addition to the conflict itself, the Monitor focuses on a broad set of related issue-areas, including health, development, displacement, governance, gender, small arms, landmines, human rights and transitional justice. The Monitor provides summaries of academic articles and reports, and links to key documents, publications, organizations, and data. In addition to keeping up to date on the news via their web-browser, users of the Monitor can also sign up to receive the latest posts via email or RSS feeds. In producing these services, Human Security Report Project staff systematically monitor over 1,500 websites, as well as dozens of e-mailing lists and academic journals....

August 10, 2010
Human Security Report Project

Abstract:

The Afghanistan Conflict Monitor is an initiative of the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. The Monitor highlights new research and analysis on the conflict in Afghanistan. In addition to the conflict itself, the Monitor focuses on a broad set of related issue-areas, including health, development, displacement, governance, gender, small arms, landmines, human rights and transitional justice. The Monitor provides summaries of academic articles and reports, and links to key documents, publications, organizations, and data....

July 22, 2010
Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne // Université Paris

Abstract:

The consequences of civil war have been widely analyzed, but one of its aspect, yet important, remains marginally investigated: the human cost of the combats. Indeed, most of recent literature has focused on the numbers of dead and wounded, while little scope has been given to survivors’ health, whether they have been injured or not. Given that survivors are the ones who bear the burden of reconstruction, the evaluation of the health costs of civil conflict, is therefore crucial for the conception and the implementation of proper economic policies. This paper is an attempt in this direction. It aims at assessing the impact of the fifteen year long Mozambican civil war on the long-run health and nutritional status of adult women, measured by their height-for-age z-score (HAZ). In this perspective, two sets of data are used: the household survey data derived from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS+ 2003) which provides individual level information and in particular a set of anthropometric measures combined with an original, event dataset reporting the timing and location of battles and military actions that took place during this war. In accordance with the existing literature on this topic, I find that women who were exposed to the conflict during the early stages of their lives have, on average, a weaker health in comparison to other women, reflected by a lower HAZ. Using the Infancy-Childhood-Puberty Curves, a concept given by the medical literature studying the human growth process, I point out that this negative effect depends both on the age of entry into civil war and on the number of months spent in conflict. Furthermore, this study indicates that months of civil war before a woman’s birth also have a negative impact on her health highlighting thus the importance of the prenatal conditions. Moreover, as recent works have shown, a poor health status induces other adverse effects in the long run. All of these effects emphasize the importance of preventing civil wars and stopping ongoing conflicts....

June 14, 2010
Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict

Abstract:

Children bear the brunt of the ongoing armed conflict in Afghanistan. In 2009, at least 346 children were killed in aerial strikes and search-and-raid operations by international special forces as well as by assassinations and suicide bombings by anti-government elements. In addition, landmines, explosive remnants of war and other explosives have killed or severely injured hundreds of children, particularly boys who play outside, tend animals, or collect food, water or wood. Armed groups have also damaged and destroyed schools, targeting students (especially girls), teachers and others who are seen as supportive of Afghanistan’s education system. Thousands of Afghan families have been forced to flee their homes due to armed conflict and economic hardships. More than half of the country’s internally displaced – approximately 161,000 people – are children; an additional 1.5 million children are refugees in Pakistan and Iran. Despite some progress in expanding basic health services to a wide population, infant and maternal mortality is alarmingly high. Afghanistan remains the worst place in the world for a newborn child, according to child protection agencies....

September 2, 2010
Social Science Research Network

Abstract:

There are an estimated 250,000 child soldiers - boys and girls under the age of 18- who are being compelled to serve in more than 15 conflicts worldwide. Child soldiers are forcibly recruited or abducted and are used as combatants, messengers, porters, cooks and to provide sexual services. International Law now recognizes child soldiers as victims of war crimes. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security, however, has opposed asylum to child soldiers on the grounds that their military service subjects them to the “persecutor bar.” This article argues that a per se bar of child soldiers from asylum contradicts the U.S.’s adherence to the international view that the use of child soldiers constitutes a violation of human rights, domestic laws declaring recruitment of child soldiers a crime, and active support of the eradication of the use of child soldiers. The article concludes by offering an approach to determining when a child soldier should be subjected to the persecutor bar that balances the seriousness of the child soldier’s actions against the circumstances under which s/he was recruited....

September 1, 2010
Amnesty International

Abstract:

Rwanda’s laws on “genocide ideology” and “sectarianism”, more commonly known as “divisionism”, were introduced in the decade following the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Up to 800,000 Rwandans were killed during the 1994 genocide, most of them ethnic Tutsi, but also some Hutu who opposed this organized killing and the forces that directed it. Aware of the role that hate speech1 and the infamous hate radio Radio Télévision Libre des Milles Collines (RTLM) played in inciting genocidal participation,2 the post-genocide government led by the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) enacted laws to encourage unity and restrict speech that could promote hatred. Following six years of extensive reforms to the conventional justice system, the Rwandan government announced a review of the “genocide ideology” law in April 2010. Amnesty International welcomes this government initiative. This report identifies Amnesty International’s concerns about the current legislation and its application in light of the Rwandan government’s review process. This report is based on numerous interviews conducted by Amnesty International staff in Rwanda in September and November 2009 and March 2010. They conducted interviews in Rwanda’s capital, Kigali, as well as in the provinces. Interviews were in English, French or Kinyarwanda with French translation. Some individuals were interviewed on more than one occasion. This report is not intended to be a comprehensive overview of all “genocide ideology” and “sectarianism” cases, convictions and acquittals. Instead, our research documents problematic trends in how these laws have been applied....

August 25, 2010
Amnesty International

Abstract:

The Yemeni authorities, facing growing internal and external pressures, are abandoning human rights in the name of security. Internationally, tough action is being demanded to combat al-Qa'ida based in Yemen. Inside Yemen, the state is being challenged by a secessionist movement in the south, an intermittent conflict in the north, armed tribes that effectively control large areas of the country, and a desperate economic situation. This report highlights how the government is increasingly resorting to repressive laws and illegal methods in response to the challenges it faces and to silence its critics....

August 25, 2010
Amnesty International

Abstract:

In the name of security, the Yemeni authorities are rolling back human rights gains – with terrible consequences for the people of Yemen. Challenged by growing calls for secession in the south, an intermittent conflict with a rebel movement in the north, and the presence of al-Qa’ida in the country, the government has increasingly resorted to repressive and illegal methods. Amnesty International calls on the international community put a different kind of pressure on the Yemeni authorities and other governments involved – pressure based on the understanding that by violating human rights, security is jeopardized, not enhanced....

August 24, 2010
Global Consortium on Security Transformation

Abstract:

Some people(s) are more aected by and less protected from these sources of insecurity. Particular communities become more disadvantaged for reasons ranging from economic deprivation, state ideology, ethnic background, physical disabilities, religion, sexual identity and/or orientation, age, class and color. This research is on the human security demands of a number of civil society actors representing and/or working for some of the poor, less powerful and marginalized segments of society in Turkey which this paper refers to as communities of (in)security. Ten civil society actors representing and/or working for certain segments of Kurdish people, women wearing headscarves, physically disabled people, gypsies, homeless children, asylum seekers, the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and transsexual community and women are examined in this paper. With the term communities of (in)security, the paper seeks to highlight communities of people who experience various insecurities within the supposedly peaceful security communities (of states) in the world and take action to eradicate their insecurities....

May 11, 2010
United Nations Development Programme

Abstract:

Decades of conflict have exposed people in the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) to profound insecurity, loss of opportunities, desperation and increased political frustration. During the period covered by this Report, 2005 to early 2010, internal political polarization has surfaced as a new and growing threat to human security in the oPt. In concert with the increasingly restrictive physical and administrative framework of the prolonged occupation, political divisiveness is reversing social development gains, undermining governance institutions, eroding the human security of Palestinian men, women and children, and creating a crisis of confidence. In short, the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, the prolonged occupation and the recent breakdown in intra-Palestinian political relations create a situation in which multiple dimensions of human security are undermined and opportunities and space for human development are obstructed. The Report begins with a presentation of traditional indicators of human development. It goes on to describe key mechanisms and processes driving fragmentation and political divisions in the oPt, explores their concrete effects on the human security of Palestinian men, women and children, and presents recommendations on how to reinforce conditions that will facilitate human security, end the occupation and assist Palestinians and the international community to create a sovereign and democratic Palestinian State. The report concludes with a suggested way forward in which key policy messages and recommendations are captured....

April 23, 2010
Security Sector Reform Monitor // Centre for International Governance Innovation

Abstract:

Human security has remained under threat in many parts of Southern Sudan despite the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) on January 9, 2005. The militarization of civilians during the civil war, the emergence of resource conflicts, the spillover effects of regional conflicts and the wide circulation of small arms have contributed to insecurity in Southern Sudan. In 2009 alone, more than 2,500 people were killed and 350,000 displaced due to fighting, a toll higher than the much more publicized conflict in neighbouring Darfur (Joint NGO Briefing Paper, 2010: 2). Although there are functional governments (the central Government of Southern Sudan as well as state and county administration) in the territory, economic, political and social instability dominate. This edition of the Security Sector Reform Monitor: Southern Sudan will explore disarmament and security issues in Southern Sudan with an emphasis on the community level, examining how internal and external dynamics contribute to human insecurity. Civilian disarmament is an intractable problem that was not addressed explicitly in the CPA. The problems posed by small arms in Southern Sudan are enormous and current measures to contain their impact are inadequate and, in fact, undermine the credibility of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS)....

April 14, 2010
United Nations General Assembly

Abstract:

The report provides an update on developments related to the advancement of human security since the 2005 World Summit. It takes stock of discussions on human security, its various definitions and its relationship to State sovereignty and the responsibility to protect. The report also outlines the principles and the approach for advancing human security and its application to the current priorities of the United Nations. Key human security initiatives undertaken by Governments, regional and subregional intergovernmental organizations, as well as the organizations and bodies of the United Nations system, are presented as examples of the reach of this important concept and its growing acceptance. The report concludes by identifying the core elements and the added value of human security and provides a set of recommendations as a follow-up to the above-mentioned commitment contained in the World Summit Outcome. Human security is based on a fundamental understanding that Governments retain the primary role for ensuring the survival, livelihood and dignity of their citizens. It is an invaluable tool for assisting Governments in identifying critical and pervasive threats to the welfare of their people and the stability of their sovereignty....

March 30, 2010
United Nations Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights

Abstract:

Abject poverty remains widespread; it is closely related to inequality and frequently accompanied by a sense of powerlessness and exclusion. Add conflict to the mix, and addressing poverty becomes an even greater challenge. This is the situation in Afghanistan. Poverty, and its multiple ramifications, scars the lives of millions of Afghans. As elsewhere, poverty is multi-dimensional and can be traced to different sources and processes. Poverty is neither accidental, nor inevitable in Afghanistan: it is both a cause and consequence of a massive human rights deficit including widespread impunity and inadequate investment in, and attention to, human rights. This report is concerned with the human rights dimension of poverty while acknowledging that many other factors determine who is poor or prosperous. It argues that poverty reduction initiatives should benefit from a human rights perspective and standards to help meet the objective of assisting those who are most marginalized, and the least able to enjoy the essentials for a dignified life, such as the right to food, health, access to justice, shelter and education. The sustainable reduction of poverty in Afghanistan is contingent on efforts that roll back abusive power structures as well as the ability of the poor to make free and informed choices. It is no less important that there are transparent and accountable decision-making processes, that Afghans regain their trust in public institutions, and live in a secure environment. The ouster of the Taliban regime coupled with renewed international interest in the region, unclouded by the dynamic of the Cold War, led Afghans to believe that life would be better and Afghanistan would move out of the lower rungs of the world’s socio-economic indicators. But, eight years after the Bonn Agreement promised a new beginning for Afghanistan, one in three Afghans lives in absolute poverty and cannot meet his or her basic needs; another third of the Afghan population lives slightly above the poverty line, which makes them extremely vulnerable to any adverse event, such as drought, floods, earthquakes or a near-by health facility running out of medication....

March 23, 2010
Initiative for Peacebuilding // International Alert

Abstract:

How effective is mediation and dialogue in protracted violent conflict? This paper explores approaches to and formats of mediation and dialogue, and the relevance and effectiveness of these strategies in the context of protracted violent conflicts, particularly in the South Caucasus. Mediation and dialogue cannot be contained in an ivory tower and need to be placed in a real-life conflict context characterised by violence, mistrust, political opportunism, vengeance and systemic injustice. The EU needs to develop a more nuanced understanding of the interplay of mediation and dialogue and the conflict context in which it operates. The conflicts dealt with in this paper are protracted social conflicts2 or deep-rooted conflicts3 marked by violence of varying intensity and duration. These conflicts cannot be resolved through a bargaining procedure because non-negotiable basic human needs such as identity, security, participation and development are at their core. Containment of the warring factions may result in a short-term cessation of violence, but will not ensure lasting peace unless the institutions and attitudes that caused and aggravated the conflict are addressed and transformed. Mediation and dialogue are necessary strategies for conflict resolution and conflict transformation, but will not build peace if they are the only strategies used. They have to be part of a larger process, addressing issues such as transforming institutions, governance structures, alleviating poverty and demilitarisation. The interweaving of dialogue and mediation into multi-issue, multi-strategy interventions is an innovative and promising approach to peacebuilding....

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

Pakistan's floods have affected twenty million people and killed nearly sixteen hundred so far, according to the United Nations. The United States has been rallying international assistance for Pakistan; on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged additional aid at a UN meeting (BBC) boosting total U.S. flood aid to $150 million, and Senator John Kerry (D-MA) visited flood-ravaged areas in Pakistan to assess ongoing relief efforts. CFR Senior Fellow Daniel Markey says the floods have compounded Pakistan's challenges and made Washington's efforts in the fight against extremism more difficult. The floods are a huge setback to the Pakistani military's recent successes in the tribal areas along the Afghan border, and to the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan, he says. At the same time, Markey adds, they are an opportunity for Washington to show its commitment to Pakistan. Beyond offering humanitarian relief aid, Markey recommends that the United States open its markets to Pakistani textiles, an industry expected to suffer due to cotton crops' flood damage....

September 2, 2010
Institute for Security Studies // L'Institut d'Etudes de Sécurité

Abstract:

On 23 July 2010, the eve of the African Union’s Summit in Kampala, AU Commission chairperson Jean Ping announced that he had asked countries, including South Africa, Angola, Nigeria, Ghana and Guinea, to send troops to Somalia to boost the under-strength African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), currently comprising Ugandan and Burundian forces. This move came against the background of suicide bombing attacks on 11 July 2010 that had killed 79 people in the Ugandan capital. Al-Shabaab, the militant Somali organisation with undefined links to al-Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the bombings, explaining that these were retribution for Ugandan and Burundian violence against the civilian population in Mogadishu. It would appear that the bombings were also aimed at testing the endurance of Uganda as a contributing country, as well as the resolve of other AU member states that may be contemplating contributing towards the required troop surge. AMISOM was first deployed in 2007 to protect the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and strategic infrastructures (the port and airport) in Mogadishu from the insurgents who had strengthened their position as Ethiopian forces withdrew, and to provide support for humanitarian assistance for the Somali population. The proposed additional deployment to Somalia must be viewed in the context of the chronically unstable situation in Mogadishu and in Somalia as a whole. In a nutshell, the AU decision to reinforce AMISOM by almost 2 000 troops would increase the size of the force from its current level of around 6 300 (4 Ugandan and 3 Burundian battalions), to the 8 000 mandated in 2007. Some AU member states had even called for the force to be augmented to between 14 000 and 20 000 troops. This Policy Brief examines the apparent urgency to increase AMISOM force levels. It interrogates the AU’s interventionist strategy in Somalia, including the planned troop surge, analyses the terrorist dimension of the bombings, drawing parallels with the Afghanistan case as a basis for suggestions for a clear and holistic approach to the conflict in Somalia....

August 24, 2010
Humanitarian Outcomes

Abstract:

The Aid Worker Security Database (AWSD) records major incidents of violence against aid workers, with incident reports from 1997 through the present. Initiated in 2005, to date the AWSD remains the single most comprehensive global source of this data, providing a much-needed quantitative evidence base for analysis of the changing security environment for civilian aid operations. Incident data is collected from public sources and augmented by internal information provided directly to the project by aid organisations. The project has also formed agreements with a number of regional and field-level security consortiums for direct information sharing and verification of incidents. Incident reports are crosschecked and verified with the relevant agencies on a quarterly basis. The latest, unverified incidents are provided on the online database with the qualification that the numbers are provisional and may change....

August 20, 2010
London School of Economics // PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP // Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Abstract:

The challenges of state-building in Afghanistan today start with the structure of the state, as dictated by the Bonn Process and "inherited" by the international donors of today. The factors influencing the structure of the government are the subject of the present section. As a result of the choices made by international and local actors in the early years of the intervention, a second set of dilemmas and considerations exist, which represent the decisions and dilemmas facing donors at the present time. The second set of dilemmas, the donors' reactions to them, and the consequences that these reactions have had for state-building will be dealt with in the main findings section of this paper....

August 19, 2010
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

Abstract:

This factsheet displays data from the Aid Worker Security Database, including: numbers of humanitarian workers as victims of security incidents since 1997; numbers of humanitarian workers killed since 1997l number of humanitarian workers kidnapped since 1997; number of security incidents by type, comparing 1999 with 2009.

September 2, 2010
Institute for Security Studies // L'Institut d'Etudes de Sécurité

Abstract:

On 23 July 2010, the eve of the African Union’s Summit in Kampala, AU Commission chairperson Jean Ping announced that he had asked countries, including South Africa, Angola, Nigeria, Ghana and Guinea, to send troops to Somalia to boost the under-strength African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), currently comprising Ugandan and Burundian forces. This move came against the background of suicide bombing attacks on 11 July 2010 that had killed 79 people in the Ugandan capital. Al-Shabaab, the militant Somali organisation with undefined links to al-Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the bombings, explaining that these were retribution for Ugandan and Burundian violence against the civilian population in Mogadishu. It would appear that the bombings were also aimed at testing the endurance of Uganda as a contributing country, as well as the resolve of other AU member states that may be contemplating contributing towards the required troop surge. AMISOM was first deployed in 2007 to protect the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and strategic infrastructures (the port and airport) in Mogadishu from the insurgents who had strengthened their position as Ethiopian forces withdrew, and to provide support for humanitarian assistance for the Somali population. The proposed additional deployment to Somalia must be viewed in the context of the chronically unstable situation in Mogadishu and in Somalia as a whole. In a nutshell, the AU decision to reinforce AMISOM by almost 2 000 troops would increase the size of the force from its current level of around 6 300 (4 Ugandan and 3 Burundian battalions), to the 8 000 mandated in 2007. Some AU member states had even called for the force to be augmented to between 14 000 and 20 000 troops. This Policy Brief examines the apparent urgency to increase AMISOM force levels. It interrogates the AU’s interventionist strategy in Somalia, including the planned troop surge, analyses the terrorist dimension of the bombings, drawing parallels with the Afghanistan case as a basis for suggestions for a clear and holistic approach to the conflict in Somalia....

September 1, 2010
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs // Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

Abstract:

Rule of law reforms in Liberia over the past five years serve as a clear example of how the international community has failed on this point, as the country’s own practices have been generally neglected in the process. Characteristically, there is little updated information on the customary law and traditional practices of Liberia. In investigating how the international community addresses SGBV in Liberia, we found within the liberal peacekeeping/building paradigm few analytical tools that could be used to gain a solid understanding of the host country ‘from below’. This area of society remains a professional blind-spot and represents a gap in the efforts of the international peacekeeping/-building community to build a sustainable peace in the country....

September 1, 2010
Norwegian Peacebuilding Centre

Abstract:

Failed bilateral talks over these past 16 years have shown that a Middle East peace accord can never be reached by the parties themselves. Israeli governments believe they can defy international condemnation of their illegal colonial project in the West Bank because they can count on the US to oppose international sanctions. Bilateral talks that are not framed by US-formulated parameters (based on Security Council resolutions, the Oslo accords, the Arab Peace Initiative, the “road map” and other previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements) cannot succeed. This paper focuses on the other major obstacle to a permanent status agreement: the absence of an effective Palestinian interlocutor. Addressing Hamas’ legitimate grievances – and as noted in a recent CENTCOM report, Hamas has legitimate grievances – could lead to its return to a Palestinian coalition government that would provide Israel with a credible peace partner. If that outreach fails because of Hamas’ rejectionism, the organization’s ability to prevent a reasonable accord negotiated by other Palestinian political parties will have been significantly impeded. If the Obama administration will not lead an international initiative to define the parameters of an Israeli-Palestinian agreement and actively promote Palestinian political reconciliation, Europe must do so, and hope America will follow. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet that can guarantee the goal of “two states living side by side in peace and security.” But President Obama’s present course absolutely precludes it....

August 30, 2010
Center for International Peace Operations

Abstract:

A world map and brief overview of peacekeeping training centers across Africa, Middle East and Asia; current as of August 2010.

August 25, 2010
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs // Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

Abstract:

The role of civilians in UN peacekeeping and peacebuilding missions has shifted from a peripheral support role to the core of contemporary peacekeeping and peacebuilding missions, and the number of civilians have steadily increased over the years to approximately 22,000 in 2010. Civilians now constitute 20% of UN peacekeepers, and approximately 60% of the top twenty civilian contributing countries are from the Global South. Whilst the UN finds it difficult to identify candidates in certain specialised categories, in general it has an oversupply of candidates. The main challenge facing the UN when it comes to recruitment, is processing the large number of applications it receives, selecting the most deserving candidates, and the time it takes to process an application from the moment a vacancy is announced until a person is deployed to take up the post. The linkages between training institutions, rosters and the UN recruitment system are underdeveloped. The aim of investing in training and rostering, namely shortening the time it will take to fill an urgently needed post with a suitably prepared candidate, is not being realised under the current relationship between the UN, training institutions and rosters....

September 2, 2010
Social Science Research Network

Abstract:

There are an estimated 250,000 child soldiers - boys and girls under the age of 18- who are being compelled to serve in more than 15 conflicts worldwide. Child soldiers are forcibly recruited or abducted and are used as combatants, messengers, porters, cooks and to provide sexual services. International Law now recognizes child soldiers as victims of war crimes. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security, however, has opposed asylum to child soldiers on the grounds that their military service subjects them to the “persecutor bar.” This article argues that a per se bar of child soldiers from asylum contradicts the U.S.’s adherence to the international view that the use of child soldiers constitutes a violation of human rights, domestic laws declaring recruitment of child soldiers a crime, and active support of the eradication of the use of child soldiers. The article concludes by offering an approach to determining when a child soldier should be subjected to the persecutor bar that balances the seriousness of the child soldier’s actions against the circumstances under which s/he was recruited....

September 1, 2010
Amnesty International

Abstract:

Rwanda’s laws on “genocide ideology” and “sectarianism”, more commonly known as “divisionism”, were introduced in the decade following the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Up to 800,000 Rwandans were killed during the 1994 genocide, most of them ethnic Tutsi, but also some Hutu who opposed this organized killing and the forces that directed it. Aware of the role that hate speech1 and the infamous hate radio Radio Télévision Libre des Milles Collines (RTLM) played in inciting genocidal participation,2 the post-genocide government led by the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) enacted laws to encourage unity and restrict speech that could promote hatred. Following six years of extensive reforms to the conventional justice system, the Rwandan government announced a review of the “genocide ideology” law in April 2010. Amnesty International welcomes this government initiative. This report identifies Amnesty International’s concerns about the current legislation and its application in light of the Rwandan government’s review process. This report is based on numerous interviews conducted by Amnesty International staff in Rwanda in September and November 2009 and March 2010. They conducted interviews in Rwanda’s capital, Kigali, as well as in the provinces. Interviews were in English, French or Kinyarwanda with French translation. Some individuals were interviewed on more than one occasion. This report is not intended to be a comprehensive overview of all “genocide ideology” and “sectarianism” cases, convictions and acquittals. Instead, our research documents problematic trends in how these laws have been applied....

August 26, 2010
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars // Mexico Institute // University of San Diego // Trans-border Institute

Abstract:

As stories of crime and violence play out in the headlines, Mexico is in the midst of a major transformation of its judicial sector. Mexico has been gradually implementing a series of reforms that advocates hope will dramatically improve public security and the administration of justice over the next decade. Central to the process of judicial reform in Mexico is a package of ambitious legislative changes and constitutional amendments passed by the Mexican Congress in 2008, and to be implemented throughout the country by 2016. Together, these reforms touch virtually all aspects of the judicial sector, including police, prosecutors, public defenders, the courts, and the penitentiary system. The reforms include significant changes in Mexican criminal procedure, new measures to promote greater access to justice (for both criminal defendants and crime victims), new functions for law enforcement and public security agencies in the administration of justice, and tougher measures for combating organized crime. This paper helps to fill the gap in our current understanding of these problems by explaining Mexico’s justice sector challenges, the specific changes proposed under the 2008 reform package, and the challenges that lie in store for Mexico as it implements judicial sector reforms over the next decade....

August 25, 2010
Amnesty International

Abstract:

The Yemeni authorities, facing growing internal and external pressures, are abandoning human rights in the name of security. Internationally, tough action is being demanded to combat al-Qa'ida based in Yemen. Inside Yemen, the state is being challenged by a secessionist movement in the south, an intermittent conflict in the north, armed tribes that effectively control large areas of the country, and a desperate economic situation. This report highlights how the government is increasingly resorting to repressive laws and illegal methods in response to the challenges it faces and to silence its critics....

August 25, 2010
Congressional Research Service

Abstract:

Sudan, geographically the largest country in Africa, has been ravaged by civil war intermittently for four decades. More than 2 million people have died in Southern Sudan over the past two decades due to war-related causes and famine, and millions have been displaced from their homes. There were many failed attempts to end the civil war in Southern Sudan. On January 9, 2005, the government of Sudan and the SPLM signed the final peace agreement at a ceremony held in Nairobi, Kenya. In April 2010, Sudan held national and regional elections. In January 2011, South Sudan will hold a referendum to decide on unity or independence. Abyei is also expected to hold a referendum in January 2011 to decide whether to retain the current special administrative status or to be part of South Sudan. The crisis in Darfur began in February 2003, when two rebel groups emerged to challenge the National Congress Party (NCP) government in Darfur. The crisis in Darfur in western Sudan has led to a major humanitarian disaster, with an estimated 2.7 million people displaced, more than 240,000 people forced into neighboring Chad, and an estimated 450,000 people killed. In late October 2009, the Obama Administration announced a new Sudan policy. The new Sudan policy focuses on three policy priorities: the crisis in Darfur, the implementation of the North- South peace agreement, and counter-terrorism. The new policy links the lifting of sanctions and incentives to verifiable progress on the ground....

August 30, 2010
Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program

Abstract:

Global climate change poses serious threats to the Central Asian region's natural environment, and given the dependence of its socio-economic systems on natural resources, climate change could pose a threat to the region’s socio-economic systems. For most countries in the region, agriculture represents a major sector of the economy and is by far the largest source of employment. Environmental changes - particularly changes in the availability of water - puts this critical sector at risk. The growing concern over climate change in Central Asia is due to the degree to which climate change affects the region's energy, water, and food security and how this can lead to political tensions and conflict unless this issue is carefully, and collectively, managed....

August 24, 2010
Feinstein International Center // Save the Children

Abstract:

This joint publication by the Feinstein International Center and Save the Children in Uganda examines the perspectives and experiences of communities in the southern Karamoja region of Uganda regarding natural resources and conflict. The study set out to better understand local views on this topic in response to the assumption in policy circles that resource scarcity or competition drives the conflict in this pastoral and agro-pastoral area. We found that while sites of natural resource exploitation are often insecure, respondents in the study population did not attribute this to direct conflict over the resources themselves. Rather, violence is common in these locations because opposing groups are most likely to come into contact with each other at these sites. On the flip side, respondents stressed that peace allows for better sharing of resources and better management of resource scarcity in times of stress or hardship. We found increased and heavy exploitation of natural resources as part of survival subsistence strategies. The collection and sale of firewood by women has become the primary means of supporting households in most study sites. Resources accessed by women (including firewood and wild fruits and vegetables) have gained prominence in household livelihood strategies at the same time that resources important to pastoral livelihoods – namely pasture and watering points for animals —- have decreased in relevance due to the loss of animals to disease, insecurity, or restrictions on mobility. This governance gap in customary systems is mirrored by a gap at the official level caused by lack of capacity, funding, and political will among district authorities. In examining barriers to natural resources, we found that access to resources was perceived as a much greater problem than availability of resources at the local level. Insecurity was the main obstacle to accessing resources, and threat of attack was as substantial a barrier as actual or reported attacks. Men and women had very different perspectives on the importance of different resources, and responses aligned closely with traditional gendered divisions of labor and the associated resources consumed....

August 19, 2010
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in the Occupied Palestinian Territory // World Food Programme

Abstract:

Over the past ten years, the Israeli military has gradually expanded restrictions on access to farmland on the Gaza side of the 1949 ‘Green Line’, and to fishing areas along the Gaza Strip coast, with the stated intention of preventing attacks on Israel by Palestinian armed factions, including firing projectiles. This study aims at assessing the scope of these restrictions, as well as their impact on physical security, livelihood and access to services. The information and analysis presented is based on over 100 interviews and focus group discussions carried out during March-April 2010, and complemented with analysis of quantitative data available from other sources....

August 19, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies // Burke Chair in Strategy

Abstract:

This presentation includes the following sections: Continuing US Dependence on Oil Imports Through 2035; Iraq’s Changing Role in World Oil and Gas Supplies: 2008-2035; Iraq’s Current Critical Over- Dependence on Oil Exports; Recent Trends in Iraqi Oil Production, Exports, and Revenues; Trends in Iraq: Oil Production and Exports.

August 18, 2010
Congressional Research Service

Abstract:

This report focuses on the nexus between security and environmental concerns in Pakistan that have the potential to affect American security and foreign policy interests. Environmental concerns include, but are not limited to, water and food scarcity, natural disasters, and the effects of climate change. Environmental stresses, when combined with the other socio-economic and political stresses on Pakistan, have the potential to further weaken an already weak Pakistani state. The report examines the potentially destabilizing effect that, when combined with Pakistan’s demographic trends and limited economic development, water scarcity, limited arable land, and food security may have on an already radicalized internal and destabilized international politicalsecurity environment. The report considers the especially important hypothesis that the combination of these factors could contribute to Pakistan’s decline as a fully functioning state, creating new, or expanding existing, largely ungoverned areas. Environmental factors could also expand the ranks of the dispossessed in Pakistan, which could lead to greater recruitment for radical Islamist groups operating in Pakistan or Afghanistan. The potential for environmental factors to stoke conflict between the nuclear armed states of India and Pakistan is also a concern. Preliminary findings by experts seem to indicate that existing environmental problems in Pakistan are sufficiently significant to warrant a close watch, especially when combined with Pakistan’s limited resilience due to mounting demographic stresses, internal political instability, security challenges, and limited economic resources....

September 2, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

The US may be announcing the “withdrawal” of its combat forces – although six Advisory and Assistance brigade and ~ 50,000 men may remain up to the end of 2011. The fact is, however, that the US withdrawal is far from over, the Iraq War is not over, it is not “won,” and any form of stable end state in Iraq is probably impossible before 2020. In fact, Iraq is at as critical a stage as at any time since 2003. Regardless of the reasons for going to war, everything now depends on a successful transition to an effective and unified Iraqi government, and Iraqi security forces that can bring both security and stability to the average Iraqi. The creation of such an “end state” will take a minimum of another five years, and probably ten....

September 2, 2010
International Crisis Group

Abstract:

The January 2011 referendum on self-determination could result in Sudan’s partition, and the country’s North-South border may ultimately become the world’s newest international boundary. The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended two decades of civil war called for the border between the North and the semi-autonomous South to be demarcated within six months. Five years later, the task remains incomplete. The sooner the parties break the border deadlock the better, though the process need not necessarily be completed prior to the referendum as Khartoum has argued previously. Furthermore, a solution to the border is about not only drawing a line, but also defining the nature and management of that border and the future relations of communities on both sides. A “soft” boundary is ideal, one backed by a framework for cross-border arrangements and, if necessary, safeguarded by a joint monitoring mechanism. Progress toward both demarcating and defining the border will prevent it from becoming a source of renewed conflict in the post-CPA era....

September 2, 2010
Institute for Security Studies // L'Institut d'Etudes de Sécurité

Abstract:

The Burundi peace process has essentially been completed. At the time of writing this monograph (August 2009), the last rebel group to the conflict, Parti pour la Liberation du Peuple Hutu – Forces Nationales de Libération (PALIPEHUTU-FNL), had just begun its Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) process and had been registered as a political party. This monograph will focus on the role played by peacekeeping missions in the Burundian peace process to ensure that agreements signed by parties to the conflict were adhered to and implemented. The deployment of peacekeeping missions went full circle and more. An African Union (AU) peace mission followed by a United Nations (UN) mission replaced the initial South African Protection Support Detachment (SAPSD). Because the peace process had not yet been completed, and because of the return of the PALIPEHUTU-FNL to Burundi, the UN Security Council (UNSC) approved the redeployment of an AU mission to oversee the completion of the final phase by December 2008....

September 1, 2010
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs // Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

Abstract:

Rule of law reforms in Liberia over the past five years serve as a clear example of how the international community has failed on this point, as the country’s own practices have been generally neglected in the process. Characteristically, there is little updated information on the customary law and traditional practices of Liberia. In investigating how the international community addresses SGBV in Liberia, we found within the liberal peacekeeping/building paradigm few analytical tools that could be used to gain a solid understanding of the host country ‘from below’. This area of society remains a professional blind-spot and represents a gap in the efforts of the international peacekeeping/-building community to build a sustainable peace in the country....

August 30, 2010
Center for International Peace Operations

Abstract:

A world map providing an overview of crisis prevention and peace operations in 2009 - current as of April 2009.

September 2, 2010
Migration Information Source

Abstract:

Migration to, from, and across Jordan since the Palestinian exodus of 1948 has played a key role in the country's politics, economy, and society. These movements have several underlying, interacting patterns. The main ones are connected to regional geopolitics, the fluctuations of the oil economy in the Persian Gulf, and efforts by the kingdom's Hashemite monarchy to ensure its own stability. Jordan is a case in point for how various forms of mobility can have strong political and economic implications, both domestically and regionally. Like most other Middle Eastern states, Jordan is a recent creation, having been established in 1921 within borders drawn by European colonial powers. It soon became the first host of Palestinian refugees. These people have arrived in several waves since the creation of the State of Israel in 1948, forming a very large and integral part of the kingdom's population. Because of the unresolved issue of Palestinian statehood, this migration has constantly posed a challenge to the Jordanian regime. At the same time, it has been an asset to the country's economic development....

September 1, 2010
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

Abstract:

This map represents estimations of the total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) throughout Somalia as of July 2010.

August 25, 2010
Amnesty International

Abstract:

In the name of security, the Yemeni authorities are rolling back human rights gains – with terrible consequences for the people of Yemen. Challenged by growing calls for secession in the south, an intermittent conflict with a rebel movement in the north, and the presence of al-Qa’ida in the country, the government has increasingly resorted to repressive and illegal methods. Amnesty International calls on the international community put a different kind of pressure on the Yemeni authorities and other governments involved – pressure based on the understanding that by violating human rights, security is jeopardized, not enhanced....

August 25, 2010
Government of Kenya // Ministry of State for Special Programmes

Abstract:

The Post 2007 Election Violence (PEV) led to destruction of property, loss of lives, 663,921 people displaced and about 78,254 houses destroyed country wide. An additional 640 households fled into Uganda. A total of 350,000 IDPs sought refuge in 118 camps whereas about 313,921 IDPs were integrated within communities across the country. This factsheet provides details on: the number of IDPs from each province; the return rates of IDPs; the number of households in each transitional camp remaining for IDPs; disbursement of humanitarian funds; number of IDP households resettled; peace and reconciliation initiatives; psycho-social counseling services; a summary of achievements and of requirements for continuing progress....

August 24, 2010
Global Consortium on Security Transformation

Abstract:

Some people(s) are more aected by and less protected from these sources of insecurity. Particular communities become more disadvantaged for reasons ranging from economic deprivation, state ideology, ethnic background, physical disabilities, religion, sexual identity and/or orientation, age, class and color. This research is on the human security demands of a number of civil society actors representing and/or working for some of the poor, less powerful and marginalized segments of society in Turkey which this paper refers to as communities of (in)security. Ten civil society actors representing and/or working for certain segments of Kurdish people, women wearing headscarves, physically disabled people, gypsies, homeless children, asylum seekers, the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and transsexual community and women are examined in this paper. With the term communities of (in)security, the paper seeks to highlight communities of people who experience various insecurities within the supposedly peaceful security communities (of states) in the world and take action to eradicate their insecurities....

August 13, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

Because of high U.S. narcotics consumption and Mexico’s role as the main transit country for cocaine from Colombia, the dominant narcotics activity in the Western Hemisphere takes place between the United States and Mexico. Competition among the large Mexican drug-trafficking organizations to maximize their sales in the United States has led to terrible violence in Mexico, and that country’s “war” against those organizations has amplified that violence. Mexico was a small player in the movement of cocaine to the United States before the 1980s, when the main route was from Colombia through the Caribbean to Florida. After that route was largely abandoned because of heavy U.S. sea and land interdiction, Colombian cocaine began to enter the United States through Central America and Mexico. This report focuses on four drugs: cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine, and marijuana. Mexico produces the last three of these drugs, which are shipped directly to the United States. For many years the U.S. government was unwilling to admit explicitly that U.S. narcotics consumption bore some responsibility for the violence in Mexico. During a visit to Mexico in March 2009, however, the U.S. secretary of state finally stated the obvious: that U.S. narcotics demand was fueling drug violence in Mexico. This report thus comes at a time of antinarcotics cooperation between the two countries. This cooperation does not mean that the problems related to drug trafficking and consumption are on their way to solution, only that issues not discussed earlier can now be put on the table. The purpose of this report is to provide a full discussion of such issues....

August 10, 2010
Human Security Report Project

Abstract:

The Afghanistan Conflict Monitor is an initiative of the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. The Monitor highlights new research and analysis on the conflict in Afghanistan. In addition to the conflict itself, the Monitor focuses on a broad set of related issue-areas, including health, development, displacement, governance, gender, small arms, landmines, human rights and transitional justice. The Monitor provides summaries of academic articles and reports, and links to key documents, publications, organizations, and data....

August 10, 2010
Wired

Abstract:

Danger Room covers emerging issues in national and international security, frequently focusing on technological innovation.

July 28, 2010
Stimson Center // The Stanley Foundation

Abstract:

Few regions of the world better illustrate the intimate nexus between human development and security than does Central America. A region of inherent economic and social promise, its fortunes have been frustrated by a plethora of overwhelming security challenges related to small arms, drugs, and criminal gangs. Although a long and innovative roster of instruments has been developed to counter these scourges, a lack of technical and financial support has often prevented their full realization. Moreover, institutional vulnerabilities at the local and state levels have further complicated the implementation of national and regional strategies designed to break this cycle of violence and underdevelopment. The global economic downturn now threatens to reverse progress made to date and again place countries of the region squarely on a downward economic and security trajectory. According to a recent report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), no issue has had a greater impact on the stability and development in Central America than crime. The Central American region has emerged as the most violent in the world, with the average number of homicides in Central America in 2008 rising to 33 per 100,000 people—three times the global average. While these statistics are rooted in a complex array of social, political, and economic circumstances that have depressed economic opportunity and inflated levels of violence, Central American scholars and regional government officials generally agree that their security and development challenges are rooted in the culture of illegality embodied most graphically by the triple threat of small arms proliferation, drug trafficking, and criminal and youth gangs....

July 26, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

The Burke Chair has prepared short analyses of the trends in the data for both Iraq and Afghanistan. These studies confirm that IEDs have become the equivalent of the Stinger in allowing irregular forces to pose a major threat even to the most advanced military forces in the world. At the same time, unlike the Stinger, they also show that the counter-IED effort has kept successful attacks far below the rate of increase in total attacks. These analyses, however, also illustrate the need to approach metrics and analysis in ways that fully define and explore the possible ways of actually presenting relevant data. They explore a wide range of ways to use the same data to produce insights into a critical aspect of combat. In the process, they provide a warning about two aspects of far too much of the effort to develop comprehensive metrics on the Afghan and Iraq conflicts....

September 2, 2010
Institute for Security Studies // L'Institut d'Etudes de Sécurité

Abstract:

On 23 July 2010, the eve of the African Union’s Summit in Kampala, AU Commission chairperson Jean Ping announced that he had asked countries, including South Africa, Angola, Nigeria, Ghana and Guinea, to send troops to Somalia to boost the under-strength African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), currently comprising Ugandan and Burundian forces. This move came against the background of suicide bombing attacks on 11 July 2010 that had killed 79 people in the Ugandan capital. Al-Shabaab, the militant Somali organisation with undefined links to al-Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the bombings, explaining that these were retribution for Ugandan and Burundian violence against the civilian population in Mogadishu. It would appear that the bombings were also aimed at testing the endurance of Uganda as a contributing country, as well as the resolve of other AU member states that may be contemplating contributing towards the required troop surge. AMISOM was first deployed in 2007 to protect the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and strategic infrastructures (the port and airport) in Mogadishu from the insurgents who had strengthened their position as Ethiopian forces withdrew, and to provide support for humanitarian assistance for the Somali population. The proposed additional deployment to Somalia must be viewed in the context of the chronically unstable situation in Mogadishu and in Somalia as a whole. In a nutshell, the AU decision to reinforce AMISOM by almost 2 000 troops would increase the size of the force from its current level of around 6 300 (4 Ugandan and 3 Burundian battalions), to the 8 000 mandated in 2007. Some AU member states had even called for the force to be augmented to between 14 000 and 20 000 troops. This Policy Brief examines the apparent urgency to increase AMISOM force levels. It interrogates the AU’s interventionist strategy in Somalia, including the planned troop surge, analyses the terrorist dimension of the bombings, drawing parallels with the Afghanistan case as a basis for suggestions for a clear and holistic approach to the conflict in Somalia....

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

With the pullout of U.S. combat units completed, many Iraqis, even those who deplored the presence of foreign troops, are "fearful about what happens" if the U.S. withdraws completely next year as planned, says Jane Arraf, a long-time Baghdad correspondent who served as an Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow at CFR. Beyond concerns about whether Iraq will be able to defend itself when all U.S. troops have gone, there's also anxiety about the unsettled political situation. Arraf says Iraqis seem to be unable to forge a compromise between Ayad Allawi, the former prime minister, whose bloc had the most seats in last March's elections, and the current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. "We keep thinking that perhaps there's a lot going on beneath the surface, but apparently there isn't. It is what it is. It's stalled. There's talk about what to do, but nothing's been established yet."...

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

Pakistan's floods have affected twenty million people and killed nearly sixteen hundred so far, according to the United Nations. The United States has been rallying international assistance for Pakistan; on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged additional aid at a UN meeting (BBC) boosting total U.S. flood aid to $150 million, and Senator John Kerry (D-MA) visited flood-ravaged areas in Pakistan to assess ongoing relief efforts. CFR Senior Fellow Daniel Markey says the floods have compounded Pakistan's challenges and made Washington's efforts in the fight against extremism more difficult. The floods are a huge setback to the Pakistani military's recent successes in the tribal areas along the Afghan border, and to the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan, he says. At the same time, Markey adds, they are an opportunity for Washington to show its commitment to Pakistan. Beyond offering humanitarian relief aid, Markey recommends that the United States open its markets to Pakistani textiles, an industry expected to suffer due to cotton crops' flood damage....

September 2, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

The US may be announcing the “withdrawal” of its combat forces – although six Advisory and Assistance brigade and ~ 50,000 men may remain up to the end of 2011. The fact is, however, that the US withdrawal is far from over, the Iraq War is not over, it is not “won,” and any form of stable end state in Iraq is probably impossible before 2020. In fact, Iraq is at as critical a stage as at any time since 2003. Regardless of the reasons for going to war, everything now depends on a successful transition to an effective and unified Iraqi government, and Iraqi security forces that can bring both security and stability to the average Iraqi. The creation of such an “end state” will take a minimum of another five years, and probably ten....

September 1, 2010
Norwegian Peacebuilding Centre

Abstract:

Failed bilateral talks over these past 16 years have shown that a Middle East peace accord can never be reached by the parties themselves. Israeli governments believe they can defy international condemnation of their illegal colonial project in the West Bank because they can count on the US to oppose international sanctions. Bilateral talks that are not framed by US-formulated parameters (based on Security Council resolutions, the Oslo accords, the Arab Peace Initiative, the “road map” and other previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements) cannot succeed. This paper focuses on the other major obstacle to a permanent status agreement: the absence of an effective Palestinian interlocutor. Addressing Hamas’ legitimate grievances – and as noted in a recent CENTCOM report, Hamas has legitimate grievances – could lead to its return to a Palestinian coalition government that would provide Israel with a credible peace partner. If that outreach fails because of Hamas’ rejectionism, the organization’s ability to prevent a reasonable accord negotiated by other Palestinian political parties will have been significantly impeded. If the Obama administration will not lead an international initiative to define the parameters of an Israeli-Palestinian agreement and actively promote Palestinian political reconciliation, Europe must do so, and hope America will follow. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet that can guarantee the goal of “two states living side by side in peace and security.” But President Obama’s present course absolutely precludes it....