September 2, 2010
International Crisis Group

Abstract:

The January 2011 referendum on self-determination could result in Sudan’s partition, and the country’s North-South border may ultimately become the world’s newest international boundary. The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended two decades of civil war called for the border between the North and the semi-autonomous South to be demarcated within six months. Five years later, the task remains incomplete. The sooner the parties break the border deadlock the better, though the process need not necessarily be completed prior to the referendum as Khartoum has argued previously. Furthermore, a solution to the border is about not only drawing a line, but also defining the nature and management of that border and the future relations of communities on both sides. A “soft” boundary is ideal, one backed by a framework for cross-border arrangements and, if necessary, safeguarded by a joint monitoring mechanism. Progress toward both demarcating and defining the border will prevent it from becoming a source of renewed conflict in the post-CPA era....

September 2, 2010
Institute for Security Studies // L'Institut d'Etudes de Sécurité

Abstract:

The Burundi peace process has essentially been completed. At the time of writing this monograph (August 2009), the last rebel group to the conflict, Parti pour la Liberation du Peuple Hutu – Forces Nationales de Libération (PALIPEHUTU-FNL), had just begun its Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) process and had been registered as a political party. This monograph will focus on the role played by peacekeeping missions in the Burundian peace process to ensure that agreements signed by parties to the conflict were adhered to and implemented. The deployment of peacekeeping missions went full circle and more. An African Union (AU) peace mission followed by a United Nations (UN) mission replaced the initial South African Protection Support Detachment (SAPSD). Because the peace process had not yet been completed, and because of the return of the PALIPEHUTU-FNL to Burundi, the UN Security Council (UNSC) approved the redeployment of an AU mission to oversee the completion of the final phase by December 2008....

September 2, 2010
Institute for Security Studies // L'Institut d'Etudes de Sécurité

Abstract:

On 23 July 2010, the eve of the African Union’s Summit in Kampala, AU Commission chairperson Jean Ping announced that he had asked countries, including South Africa, Angola, Nigeria, Ghana and Guinea, to send troops to Somalia to boost the under-strength African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), currently comprising Ugandan and Burundian forces. This move came against the background of suicide bombing attacks on 11 July 2010 that had killed 79 people in the Ugandan capital. Al-Shabaab, the militant Somali organisation with undefined links to al-Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the bombings, explaining that these were retribution for Ugandan and Burundian violence against the civilian population in Mogadishu. It would appear that the bombings were also aimed at testing the endurance of Uganda as a contributing country, as well as the resolve of other AU member states that may be contemplating contributing towards the required troop surge. AMISOM was first deployed in 2007 to protect the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and strategic infrastructures (the port and airport) in Mogadishu from the insurgents who had strengthened their position as Ethiopian forces withdrew, and to provide support for humanitarian assistance for the Somali population. The proposed additional deployment to Somalia must be viewed in the context of the chronically unstable situation in Mogadishu and in Somalia as a whole. In a nutshell, the AU decision to reinforce AMISOM by almost 2 000 troops would increase the size of the force from its current level of around 6 300 (4 Ugandan and 3 Burundian battalions), to the 8 000 mandated in 2007. Some AU member states had even called for the force to be augmented to between 14 000 and 20 000 troops. This Policy Brief examines the apparent urgency to increase AMISOM force levels. It interrogates the AU’s interventionist strategy in Somalia, including the planned troop surge, analyses the terrorist dimension of the bombings, drawing parallels with the Afghanistan case as a basis for suggestions for a clear and holistic approach to the conflict in Somalia....

September 1, 2010
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

Abstract:

This map represents estimations of the total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) throughout Somalia as of July 2010.

September 1, 2010
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs // Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

Abstract:

Rule of law reforms in Liberia over the past five years serve as a clear example of how the international community has failed on this point, as the country’s own practices have been generally neglected in the process. Characteristically, there is little updated information on the customary law and traditional practices of Liberia. In investigating how the international community addresses SGBV in Liberia, we found within the liberal peacekeeping/building paradigm few analytical tools that could be used to gain a solid understanding of the host country ‘from below’. This area of society remains a professional blind-spot and represents a gap in the efforts of the international peacekeeping/-building community to build a sustainable peace in the country....

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

Pakistan's floods have affected twenty million people and killed nearly sixteen hundred so far, according to the United Nations. The United States has been rallying international assistance for Pakistan; on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged additional aid at a UN meeting (BBC) boosting total U.S. flood aid to $150 million, and Senator John Kerry (D-MA) visited flood-ravaged areas in Pakistan to assess ongoing relief efforts. CFR Senior Fellow Daniel Markey says the floods have compounded Pakistan's challenges and made Washington's efforts in the fight against extremism more difficult. The floods are a huge setback to the Pakistani military's recent successes in the tribal areas along the Afghan border, and to the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan, he says. At the same time, Markey adds, they are an opportunity for Washington to show its commitment to Pakistan. Beyond offering humanitarian relief aid, Markey recommends that the United States open its markets to Pakistani textiles, an industry expected to suffer due to cotton crops' flood damage....

September 2, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

The US may be announcing the “withdrawal” of its combat forces – although six Advisory and Assistance brigade and ~ 50,000 men may remain up to the end of 2011. The fact is, however, that the US withdrawal is far from over, the Iraq War is not over, it is not “won,” and any form of stable end state in Iraq is probably impossible before 2020. In fact, Iraq is at as critical a stage as at any time since 2003. Regardless of the reasons for going to war, everything now depends on a successful transition to an effective and unified Iraqi government, and Iraqi security forces that can bring both security and stability to the average Iraqi. The creation of such an “end state” will take a minimum of another five years, and probably ten....

September 2, 2010
Social Science Research Network

Abstract:

There are an estimated 250,000 child soldiers - boys and girls under the age of 18- who are being compelled to serve in more than 15 conflicts worldwide. Child soldiers are forcibly recruited or abducted and are used as combatants, messengers, porters, cooks and to provide sexual services. International Law now recognizes child soldiers as victims of war crimes. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security, however, has opposed asylum to child soldiers on the grounds that their military service subjects them to the “persecutor bar.” This article argues that a per se bar of child soldiers from asylum contradicts the U.S.’s adherence to the international view that the use of child soldiers constitutes a violation of human rights, domestic laws declaring recruitment of child soldiers a crime, and active support of the eradication of the use of child soldiers. The article concludes by offering an approach to determining when a child soldier should be subjected to the persecutor bar that balances the seriousness of the child soldier’s actions against the circumstances under which s/he was recruited....

August 30, 2010
Combating Terrorism Center // West Point

Abstract:

This issue includes the following articles: Evaluating the Al-Qa`ida Threat to the U.S. Homeland by Philip Mudd; The Growing Danger from Radical Islamist Groups in the United States, by Paul Cruickshank; Manchester, New York and Oslo: Three Centrally Directed Al-Qa`ida Plots, by Raffaello Pantucci; Lessons Learned from the July 2010 Norwegian Terrorist Plot, by Petter Nesser and Brynjar Lia; American Journeys to Jihad: U.S. Extremists and Foreign Conflicts During the 1980s and 1990s, by William Rosenau and Sara Daly; American Journeys to Jihad: U.S. Extremists and Foreign Conflicts During the 1980s and 1990s, by William Rosenau and Sara Daly....

August 26, 2010
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars // Mexico Institute // University of San Diego // Trans-border Institute

Abstract:

This essay proposes to briefly describe and analyze the evolution of the Army and Navy’s role in drug interdiction, focusing on the patterns that have emerged since 1995, when the Army accepted responsibility for that task without any internal opposition. I will argue that Mexican national security priorities have shifted significantly, focusing on domestic security issues, specifically drug-related criminal activity and violence. In response to the government’s emphasis on drug-related crime, civil authorities have relied increasingly on the armed forces to carry out an aggressive anti-drug mission. The increased role of the military in carrying out these assignments has produced significant changes within the Mexican Navy and the Army, and in their relationship with the American armed forces. Citizen views of the Mexican armed forces as an institution, its performance of the anti-drug mission, and its reactions to increased levels of personal insecurity, have altered Mexican perceptions of national sovereignty and the United States’ role in their country. Finally, the role of the Catholic Church as an increasingly influential actor in government attempts to curb the drug cartels, as well as the source of potential conflict with the armed forces over growing numbers of human rights abuses, are essential to understanding the consequences of the military’s anti-drug mission....

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

Pakistan's floods have affected twenty million people and killed nearly sixteen hundred so far, according to the United Nations. The United States has been rallying international assistance for Pakistan; on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged additional aid at a UN meeting (BBC) boosting total U.S. flood aid to $150 million, and Senator John Kerry (D-MA) visited flood-ravaged areas in Pakistan to assess ongoing relief efforts. CFR Senior Fellow Daniel Markey says the floods have compounded Pakistan's challenges and made Washington's efforts in the fight against extremism more difficult. The floods are a huge setback to the Pakistani military's recent successes in the tribal areas along the Afghan border, and to the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan, he says. At the same time, Markey adds, they are an opportunity for Washington to show its commitment to Pakistan. Beyond offering humanitarian relief aid, Markey recommends that the United States open its markets to Pakistani textiles, an industry expected to suffer due to cotton crops' flood damage....

September 2, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

The US may be announcing the “withdrawal” of its combat forces – although six Advisory and Assistance brigade and ~ 50,000 men may remain up to the end of 2011. The fact is, however, that the US withdrawal is far from over, the Iraq War is not over, it is not “won,” and any form of stable end state in Iraq is probably impossible before 2020. In fact, Iraq is at as critical a stage as at any time since 2003. Regardless of the reasons for going to war, everything now depends on a successful transition to an effective and unified Iraqi government, and Iraqi security forces that can bring both security and stability to the average Iraqi. The creation of such an “end state” will take a minimum of another five years, and probably ten....

September 2, 2010
Migration Information Source

Abstract:

Migration to, from, and across Jordan since the Palestinian exodus of 1948 has played a key role in the country's politics, economy, and society. These movements have several underlying, interacting patterns. The main ones are connected to regional geopolitics, the fluctuations of the oil economy in the Persian Gulf, and efforts by the kingdom's Hashemite monarchy to ensure its own stability. Jordan is a case in point for how various forms of mobility can have strong political and economic implications, both domestically and regionally. Like most other Middle Eastern states, Jordan is a recent creation, having been established in 1921 within borders drawn by European colonial powers. It soon became the first host of Palestinian refugees. These people have arrived in several waves since the creation of the State of Israel in 1948, forming a very large and integral part of the kingdom's population. Because of the unresolved issue of Palestinian statehood, this migration has constantly posed a challenge to the Jordanian regime. At the same time, it has been an asset to the country's economic development....

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

With the pullout of U.S. combat units completed, many Iraqis, even those who deplored the presence of foreign troops, are "fearful about what happens" if the U.S. withdraws completely next year as planned, says Jane Arraf, a long-time Baghdad correspondent who served as an Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow at CFR. Beyond concerns about whether Iraq will be able to defend itself when all U.S. troops have gone, there's also anxiety about the unsettled political situation. Arraf says Iraqis seem to be unable to forge a compromise between Ayad Allawi, the former prime minister, whose bloc had the most seats in last March's elections, and the current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. "We keep thinking that perhaps there's a lot going on beneath the surface, but apparently there isn't. It is what it is. It's stalled. There's talk about what to do, but nothing's been established yet."...

September 2, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

Afghanistan's parliamentary elections, set for September 18, will be seen as a test of that country's stability nine years after the U.S.-led invasion, and three months before U.S. President Barack Obama reviews progress in the war effort. But if balloting is meant to serve as a litmus test for a military campaign that continues to sputter along, Afghanistan analyst Candace Rondeaux says the West should prepare for disappointment. For one, a surge in pre-election violence, coupled with a growing list of corrupt candidates, will discourage many Afghans from voting, Rondeaux says. Changes to the Afghan-run commission that investigates electoral fraud will also make a free and fair tally unlikely, she says. And while parliament has in recent months exhibited a willingness to challenge President Hamid Karzai on numerous issues, the corrupt lineup of candidates running this time makes it unlikely such independence will continue, she says....

September 2, 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

The North Caucasus experienced another deadly summer (May 1 – August 31, 2010). Although Chechnya and Ingushetia saw comparatively less violence than they did in Summer 2009, we observed a troubling rise in the level of violence in Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria. Dagestan proved the most deadly republic in the region, while Kabardio-Balkaria, normally a relatively quiet republic, incurred levels of violence surpassing Chechnya. Since 2008, CSIS staff has tracked, on a daily basis, incidents of violence occurring in the North Caucasus. We have released seven previous reports, the last of whichillustrated the dramatic rise in violence in Spring 2010. In this report, we present our data for Summer 2010 (May 1–August 31), paying particular attention to the geographic spread of the violence across the North Caucasus, most notably into Kabardino-Balkaria....

August 30, 2010
Combating Terrorism Center // West Point

Abstract:

This issue includes the following articles: Evaluating the Al-Qa`ida Threat to the U.S. Homeland by Philip Mudd; The Growing Danger from Radical Islamist Groups in the United States, by Paul Cruickshank; Manchester, New York and Oslo: Three Centrally Directed Al-Qa`ida Plots, by Raffaello Pantucci; Lessons Learned from the July 2010 Norwegian Terrorist Plot, by Petter Nesser and Brynjar Lia; American Journeys to Jihad: U.S. Extremists and Foreign Conflicts During the 1980s and 1990s, by William Rosenau and Sara Daly; American Journeys to Jihad: U.S. Extremists and Foreign Conflicts During the 1980s and 1990s, by William Rosenau and Sara Daly....

August 30, 2010
Combating Terrorism Center // West Point

Abstract:

This issue includes the following articles: AQAP’s Growing Security Threat to Saudi Arabia, by Caryle Murphy; Assessing AQI’s Resilience After April’s Leadership Decapitations, by Myriam Benraad; The Return of Moqtada al-Sadr and the Revival of the Mahdi Army, by Babak Rahimi; Indoctrinating Children: The Making of Pakistan’s Suicide Bombers, by Kalsoom Lakhani; The Third Way: A Paradigm for Influence in the Marketplace of Ideas, by Scott Helfstein; Still Fighting for Revolution: Greece’s New Generation of Terrorists, by George Kassimeris;...

August 30, 2010
Combating Terrorism Center // West Point

Abstract:

This issue includes the following articles: Building a Strategic U.S.-Pakistan Nuclear Relationship, by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen; Beyond the Moscow Bombings: Islamic Militancy in the North Caucasus, by Christopher Swift; After Pune, Details Emerge on the Karachi Project and its Threat to India ,by Animesh Roul; Assessing the Recent Terrorist Threat to the Malacca Strait, by Peter Chalk; The Philippines Chips Away at the Abu Sayyaf Group’s Strength, by Zachary Abuza; Al-Qa`ida in the Islamic Maghreb: A Case Study in the Opportunism of Global Jihad, by Jean-Pierre Filiu; No Silver Bullets: Explaining Research on How Terrorism Ends, by Audrey Kurth Cronin;...

August 24, 2010
Swiss Peace Foundation

Abstract:

Power-sharing mechanisms play an increasingly important role in peace agreements. However, there is profound divergence over the positive effects of the inclusion of political power-sharing provisions in peace accords. Proposing power-sharing solutions may be useful for mediators to get conflict parties to the negotiating table. At the same time those mechanisms imply a number of challenges for academics and practitioners. Many critics argue that power-sharing as specific political model has only worked in particular circumstances, such as in Switzerland. Before formulating general guidelines and recommendations on powersharing in peace agreements, one has to address this critique. To this end the working paper analyses four contested favourable conditions in the power-sharing model: a small population size, a balance of population size between divided groups, territorial isolation of population groups and a common perceived security threat. Eight case studies are carried out in order to test these four favourable conditions that might influence the durability of power-sharing peace agreements. As a result, this working paper provides evidence that the durability of power-sharing peace agreements does probably not depend on these favourable conditions. It is therefore argued that power-sharing solutions in peace agreements do not seem to require particular favourable conditions to be successful and are not doomed to fail from the outset in a range of different contexts....