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Abstract: This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors ("luck") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification.
Abstract: The United Nations Security Council has warned that Guinea Bissau is being undermined
by prolific drug trafficking, making the situation in that country a threat to West
Africa’s stability. Cocaine consignments are carried by ships and planes from South America to West Africa where they are unloaded at abandoned airstrips in the islands off Guinea Bissau or dropped at sea and picked up by small boats en route to Guinea Bissau. The trafficking of cocaine through the West African region indicates a new pivot point in the trafficking route to Europe, marking a shift from using traditional routes such as the Iberian Peninsula, extreme south west of Europe that includes Spain, Portugal, and a small part of France, and the Caribbean, to Europe and America.
Abstract: I consider it a singular honour to have been invited today by Chatham House
to address this august forum. The Economic Community of West African
States (ECOWAS), which I represent, is a regional organisation which has,
over the years, gained your attention only for the unfortunate reasons of state
implosion and instability caused by bad governance and marginalisation. I
therefore welcome the opportunity to throw further light on its objectives,
challenges, and achievements, which factors have effectively brought
together fifteen West African states in the enterprise of improving upon the
living standards of 230 million people as well as integrating them.
The term ‘Chatham House Rule’ is today an internationally-accepted cliché
that this Institute has contributed to international diplomacy discourse, a
reference norm in rigorous and policy-oriented exchanges on global peace
and security. I therefore view your invitation to lead today’s discourse about
‘Democracy in the context of Regional Integration in West Africa’ as an
unique honour for me personally, and a recognition of ECOWAS as a leading
brand in regional integration.
Ladies and gentlemen, the evolution of ECOWAS can only be properly
understood against the backdrop of the fascinating history and circumstances
of West Africa since establishing contact with the world beyond its borders.
The fact that slavery, colonialism, as well as racial and economic
marginalisation, had left an intrinsic yearning for freedom, unity and solidarity
among peoples of African descent everywhere defines its wish to integrate its
states and peoples.
Abstract: This special research report provides an analysis of a set of new issues that have been emerging in the West African subregion and possible implications for the Security Council in the coming year(s). It identifies some key emerging threats to peace and security in the 16-state subregion and their linkages to existing security challenges. The report points to a key feature: the fact that some of the new threats are essentially criminal rather than political in nature. However, it explains also the growing political and security implications. The report also highlights action already taken by the Council to recognise these threats and considers options available to the Council to tackle these issues going forward.
The raw material for the study was derived from literature research; field research in a number of countries in the West African subregion (including Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Senegal, Ghana and Nigeria); and interviews in the region with diplomats, government officials and officials of relevant international intergovernmental bodies (e.g. UN Office in West Africa or UNOWA, UN Office for Drugs and Crime or UNODC, the Economic Community of West African States or ECOWAS and the AU), NGOs and academics.
Abstract: The Portfolio of Mine Action Projects is a resource tool and reference document for donors, policy-makers, advocates, and national and international mine action implementers. The country and territory-specific proposals in the portfolio reflect strategic responses developed in the field to address all aspects of the problem of landmines and explosive remnants of war (ERW). This country and territory-based approach aims to present as comprehensive a picture as possible of the full range of mine action needs in particular countries and thematic issues related to mine action. The portfolio ideally reflects projects developed by mine- and ERW-affected countries and territories based on their priorities and strategies; the approaches are endorsed by national authorities. The portfolio does not automatically entail full-scale direct mine action assistance by the United Nations, but is in essence a tool for collaborative resource mobilization, coordination and planning of mine action activities involving partners and stakeholders. A country portfolio coordinator (CPC) leads each country portfolio team and coordinates the submission of proposals to the portfolio’s headquarters team. While the majority of the CPCs are UN officials, this role is increasingly being assumed by national authorities. The country portfolio teams include representatives from national and local authorities, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), the United Nations and the private sector. Locally based donor representatives are invited to attend preparation meetings. Each portfolio chapter contains a synopsis of the scope of the landmine and ERW problem, a description of how mine action is coordinated, and a snapshot of local mine action strategies. Many of the strategies complement or are integrated into broader development and humanitarian frameworks such as national development plans, the UN development assistance frameworks and national poverty reduction plans. This 14th edition of the annual Portfolio of Mine Action Projects features overviews and project outlines for 29 countries, territories or missions affected by landmines and explosive remnants of war. There are 238 projects in the 2011 portfolio. Africa accounts for the largest number: 92.
Abstract: This paper aims to appraise and map the security challenges that have faced West African countries since independence with a special focus on the period after 1990. It also assesses the efforts made by various national, regional, continental and extra-African actors and makes suggestions on how the shortcomings in these efforts could be improved. An effort is made to show the evolution of at least some of the challenges over the years, in the hope that this could contribute to a better formulation of policy responses.
The study is based on extensive review of existing literature, complemented by field research in the region undertaken in July and August 2010, in addition to general familiarity with the region from many previous research visits on related subjects.
Without neglecting other issues that could be considered as security threats, and without attempting any hierarchical ordering of these threats, the paper focuses on the following six major issues: i) armed conflict, ii) military coups and unconstitutional changes of government; iii) mismanagement of electoral processes; iv) transnational criminality, particularly drug trafficking, terrorism and maritime piracy in the Gulf of Guinea; v) poverty and illiteracy; vi) climate change and environmental degradation.
Abstract: The present report is submitted pursuant to paragraph 14 of Security Council
resolution 1876 (2009), by which the Council requested me to submit a written
report every four months on the progress made in establishing the United Nations
Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) and in
implementing the resolution. The report covers developments since my previous
report (S/2009/552), dated 22 October 2009 and covering the period until
15 February 2010, with a particular focus on efforts to normalize the functioning of
State institutions and on preparations for the national conference designed to
promote reconciliation in the country.
Abstract: Recent development cooperation with Guinea‐Bissau, focusing on good governance, statebuilding
and conflict prevention, did not contribute to democratization nor to the stabilization
of volatile political, military and economic structures. The portrayal of Guinea‐
Bissau as failed a “narco‐state”, as well as Western aid meant to stabilize this state, are
both based on dubious concepts. Certainly, the impact of drug trafficking could endanger
democratization and state‐building if continued unchecked. However, the most pressing
need is not state‐building facilitated by external aid that is poorly rooted in the social and
political fabric of the country. Rather, it is grassroots nation‐building that is a pre‐condition
for the creation of viable state institutions.
Abstract: The present report is submitted pursuant to paragraph 14 of Security Council
resolution 1233 (1999), by which the Council requested me to keep it regularly
informed and to submit a report on developments in Guinea-Bissau and on the
activities of the United Nations Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau
(UNOGBIS). Subsequently, in paragraph 14 of its resolution 1876 (2009), the
Council requested me to submit a written report every four months on progress in
establishing the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau
(UNIOGBIS), with the first report due by 31 October 2009. The report covers
developments since my last report (S/2009/302), dated 10 June 2009, with particular
focus on the tension that followed the political assassinations of 5 June 2009, as
well as the presidential elections of 28 June 2009 and the run-off that was held on
26 July 2009.
Abstract: The history of Guinea-Bissau is intertwined with the armed conflicts that took place in the country as well as the underdevelopment and progressive demise of Guinean state structures. The war was not followed by peace, but rather by a ten-year period of chronic instability (Annex 1). The events that took place in 20095 are yet another part of this evolution. This paper argues that unless strong political conditionality and intervention takes place, and unless there is a consistent change in local governance, sustainable peace and development will remain at the simulation level. Along with domestic changes, international initiatives towards peacebuilding could play a positive role in this scenario shift. However, the most probable scenario suggests that this will not occur, since the responses of international actors and real local dynamics are disconnected. This means that, by phasing its intervention and focusing on the security level, the international community is assuming ownership of policies such as Security Sector Reform and the Plan Against Drug Trafficking, which may be counter-productive. Meanwhile, the structural dimensions of the economic and social crisis have yet to be addressed.
Abstract: The present report addresses the progress made in the implementation of the
recommendations contained in the Secretary-General’s report on the causes of
conflict and the promotion of durable peace and sustainable development in Africa
(A/52/871-S/1998/318). It is submitted in compliance with General Assembly
resolution 63/304, which was adopted following the Assembly’s consideration at its
sixty-third session of the Secretary-General’s progress report dated 4 August 2008
(A/63/212). The recommendations addressing economic and social factors
underlying the promotion of sustainable development are covered in the
Secretary-General’s companion report on the Implementation of the New Partnership
for Africa’s Development (A/64/204). Following introductory remarks, section II of the report provides an overview of major peace and security developments in Africa during the past year, including
the serious concerns being addressed by Africa and the international community in
order to restore, maintain and promote peace and rebuild post-conflict countries. In
section III, the report reviews progress in relation to the capacity-building needs and
increased cooperation with the African Union and subregional organizations and
provides an assessment of the United Nations support for the defence and promotion
of human rights in Africa. The report concludes that, pending the General Assemblymandated
comprehensive review of the recommendations contained in the 1998
report and of the new challenges to achieving long-term peace and sustainable
development, the international community must, more than ever, redouble its efforts
in Africa and ensure that the commitments made are effectively implemented.
Abstract: The Security Council today extended the mandate of the current United Nations mission in Guinea-Bissau for another six months, and requested Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to establish an integrated peacebuilding office in the country, beginning on 1 January 2010.
The UN Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS) will continue its tasks until 31 December 2009, according to the resolution adopted unanimously by the Council.
That office will then be succeeded by the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau, to be known as UNIOGBIS, which will be set up for an initial period of 12 months, starting on 1 January 2010, as proposed by Mr. Ban in his recent report to the Council.
The new office will be responsible for, among others, strengthening the capacity of national institutions, supporting the establishment of efficient law enforcement and helping to mobilize international assistance.
The country, which has been rocked by a series of civil conflicts, coups d’état and uprisings in recent decades, has witnessed a string of political killings in recent months. In early March, President Joao Bernardo Vieira and Chief of Staff Tagme Na Waie were assassinated, and then earlier this month, Baciro Dabo, a candidate in the 28 June presidential elections, and Helder Proenca, a Member of Parliament and former Minister of Defense, were killed.
The Council, in today’s resolution, “calls on the Government of Guinea-Bissau to conduct credible and transparent investigations into the political assassinations in March and June 2009, and to bring to justice those responsible for these acts.”
It also called on the Government and all political actors “to work together in order to set up the best conditions for national reconciliation and to consolidate peace and security throughout Guinea-Bissau.”
Abstract: When Marco Vernaschi, an Italian photojournalist, decided to head to the West African nation of Guinea Bissau, he knew that cocaine traffickers had already destabilized the tiny former Portuguese colony. But when he arrived on the scene shortly after the country's president and army chief were brutally assassinated last March, Vernaschi saw a place spiraling into a gangster's paradise. He has documented the chilling impact of the drug trade in places like Bolivia, and spent months in Guinea Bissau getting to know drug gangs from the inside.
He shares with iWitness how he captured such intimate portraits of assassins, addicts and prostitutes caught up in a trade that is relatively new to the country but leaving a devastating mark.
Abstract: The assassinations of the chief of defence staff, General Batista Tagme Na Wai, on 1 March 2009 and President Joao Bernardo Nino Vieira early the next day have plunged Guinea-Bissau into deep uncertainty. National Assembly Speaker Raimundo Pereira was quickly sworn in as interim president pending the election the constitution requires. That the killings occurred only months after the acclaimed November parliamentary elections, however, indicates that, in current circumstances, the democratic process cannot cope with the rule of the gun, as well as the extent to which the military’s use of force has overwhelmed state institutions. Without outside help to end military involvement in politics and impunity, it may be impossible to halt a slide into further violence. Elites need to stand up to the military, but they require support. The international community should work for an international or hybrid commission of inquiry into the killings. Security system reform needs to be improved by better international coordination and creation of a national commission with enhanced autonomy.
The situation further deteriorated when, in the early hours of 5 June, a presidential candidate and former minister was shot dead in his home, and a few hours later another former minister was also shot dead, along with a bodyguard and driver, while motoring into Bissau. The authorities claimed that they were resisting arrest for their part in a coup plot, for which former Prime Minister Faustino Imbali was taken into custody.
Abstract: The present report is submitted pursuant to paragraph 14 of Security Council
resolution 1233 (1999), by which the Council requested me to keep it regularly
informed and to submit a report on developments in Guinea-Bissau and on the
activities of the United Nations Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau
(UNOGBIS). Subsequently, in paragraph 11 of its resolution 1580 (2004), the
Council requested me to submit a written report to it every three months.
The report focuses on developments since my previous report, dated 31 March
2009 (S/2009/169), in particular the political and military crisis that followed the
assassinations of the Head of State and the Chief of the General Staff and the
preparations for the presidential elections to be held on 28 June. The report also
includes recommendations for an integrated peacebuilding office in Guinea-Bissau
and its proposed mandate, structure and staffing requirements, as requested by the
Security Council in a letter dated 22 December 2008.
Abstract: In West African civil wars, militias have committed some of the worst orgies of violence in modern times. Members of an elite that was made redundant in the course of structural adjustment tend to lead these armed outfits, and marginalised urban youth serve as their foot soldiers. It is of critical interest that militia leaders depend on links to the world market – procuring arms and selling commodities. Since the Cold War ended, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau and Côte d’Ivoire have experienced long drawn-out civil wars. Violence is on the increase in Senegal, Guinea and Nigeria too, though there is no reason so far to speak of outright state collapse. To understand the dynamics of those conflicts, it is necessary to understand the reasons for weak statehood.
The way statehood has come about in Africa in modern times precluded the emergence of the preconditions and processes for good governance (see box on p. 242). In general, post-independence governments in Africa tended to exploit their countries for their personal benefits. After colonialism, only lip service was paid to the idea that governments should serve their nations by providing essential services and creating an environment for the private sector to prosper. Up to today, that is not the African ruling elite’s conception of their duty. Without a thriving public sector, however, a country has no tax base to raise the money the government needs to serve the nation and allow it to prosper.
Abstract: Turkey holds the presidency of the Council in June.
An open debate on protection of civilians is planned late in the month. There is also a possibility of another open debate on peacekeeping with a particular focus on troop contributing countries late in the month (this has not been confirmed at press time).
Debates are likely on Kosovo, with the participation of representatives of Serbia and Kosovo, and on Iraq, with the likely participation of the country’s representative.
Formal meetings to adopt resolutions renewing mandates of operations in the Golan Heights (UNDOF) and in Georgia (resolution 1866) are expected.
The Council is likely to receive several briefings in June:
*
A briefing on Sudan by John Holmes, the Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, originally scheduled in May but postponed.
*
The monthly Middle East briefing may be conducted in June by Tony Blair, the Quartet Special Envoy (at press time this has not been confirmed).
*
Early in the month, the Council will be briefed by the presidents and prosecutors of the International Criminal Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and Rwanda (ICTR) on the completion strategies for each tribunal.
*
The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) is also expected to brief the Council.
*
The Chair of the Liberia Sanctions Committee.
*
The Chair of the Iran Sanctions Committee.
*
The head of the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA).
The Council is likely to receive briefings on:
*
Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL);
*
Burundi (BINUB); and
*
Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS).
The Council will also discuss:
*
Afghanistan (UNAMA);
*
Central African Republic (BONUCA); and
*
the Counter Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED).
Abstract: From Angola to Sierra Leone, Rwanda to Guinea Bissau and Congo DR to Mozambique, two defining elements unite all peace agreements brokered after the Cold War to end civil wars in Africa. The trend runs round the world, from Bosnia to El Salvador and Afghanistan to East Timor. Liberal democracy and free market systems are two elements fastened to the heart of states recovering from violent conflicts, ostensibly to assist these countries make the transition to peace from a state of anarchy and bloodbath.
Indeed, fundamental values of the global agenda in the last two decades have hinged on multi-party democracy and laissez faire capitalism. Weaving democracy and free market economy into peace agreements are based on a number of assumptions. Democracy, unlike other forms of governance, has inherent checks and balances to mitigate the inclination to resort to violence to resolve political differences. Central to the assumption underlining free market economy is that markets (and not states) are better guarantors of development (defined as material prosperity) for all because, adherents argue, the benefits will trickle down even to the weakest and most disadvantaged in society. But it is also the case that multi-party democracy and free market are the dominant political and economic models of development in the new world order, in which there’s substantively still only one global policeman.
Historically, there have been many forms of legitimacy but surely in the 21st century, the only serious form of legitimacy is democracy. Thus, multi-party elections are today about the only internationally acceptable route to power. However, elections have turned out to be one of the ways to appease top echelons of feuding factions to a conflict in states rebuilding after long periods of civil war. In effect, elections may produce outcomes that may be described as ‘democratic’ but may not necessarily lead to peace or development.
Many studies around the world have established links between development and democracy. However, the causal relationship, if any, between Africa’s marginally improved economic performance and the democratisation wave that swept across Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s and the early years of the 21st century remain a hugely contested issue. Nevertheless, the value and significance of open, free and fair elections in countries transitioning from conflict to peace or consolidation of peace can hardly be underestimated. Successful political and governance transition is central to any post-conflict nation-building project. Rebuilding public institutions such as roads, hospitals, schools, law courts, prisons and regulatory agencies is fundamental to sustainability of the state.
Abstract: The present report is submitted pursuant to paragraph 14 of Security Council
resolution 1233 (1999), by which the Council had requested me to keep it regularly
informed and to submit a report on developments in Guinea-Bissau and on the
activities of the United Nations Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau
(UNOGBIS). Subsequently, in paragraph 11 of its resolution 1580 (2004), the
Council requested me to submit a written report to it every three months.
The present report focuses on developments since my last report (S/2008/751),
dated 2 December 2008, until 18 March 2009, focusing, in particular, on the
formation of the new Government, the tragic events of March 2009 and the general
security situation
Abstract: The tiny impoverished African nation of Guinea Bissau has become a fulcrum for international drug trafficking. People & Power discovers the impact cocaine is having both on officials and civilians.
When local fishermen discovered the packets of white powder floating off the coast of the tiny West African country of Guinea-Bissau three years ago there was much confusion.
"Some people thought it was flour," one fishermen says. "Others thought it was fertiliser to put on their tomato plants, others thought it was something we put in dried fish."
The strange powder was in fact cocaine. One man painted his boat with it. Another used it to mark out a football pitch.
The fishermen were unaware that they had discovered some of the first evidence of a major shift in international drug trafficking.
Latin American drug cartels are finding it harder to send their goods directly to Europe without being intercepted. So the cartels are plotting a new course, straight across to Africa.
Abstract: Les élections législatives de novembre 2008 étaient un test important pour la Guinée-Bissau, qui devait absolument confirmer l’élan de sa transition démocratique. Leur tenue aura été incertaine jusqu’à la dernière minute, mais elles ont finalement remporté un franc succès, salué à la fois par la population et les observateurs internationaux. Cette réussite ne suffit néanmoins pas à garantir la stabilité gouvernementale ou la poursuite des réformes institutionnelles dont le pays a tant besoin. L’abandon du pacte de stabilité entre partis politiques et les différentes accusations de tentatives de coup ou d’assassinat qui ont précédé et suivi les élections ont illustré les dangers qui pèsent durablement sur le pays. Le nouveau Premier ministre, s’il s’assure du soutien continu de la communauté internationale, a désormais l’opportunité de mener les réformes administratives et politiques nécessaires à la construction de l’Etat, à la stabilisation de l’économie et à la lutte contre le trafic de drogue. Pour relever ces défis, il devra cependant fonder son action gouvernementale sur le dialogue politique avec le président Nino Vieira, l’armée et ses rivaux au sein de son parti, en bref la construction d’un nouveau et véritable pacte de stabilité.
Bien que le Parti africain pour l’indépendance de la Guinée et du Cap Vert (Partido Africano da Independência de Guiné e Cabo Verde, PAIGC) et son leader Carlos Gomes Junior aient obtenu la majorité des deux tiers à l’Assemblée nationale, les divisions internes au sein du parti, où l’influence du président Vieira – grand perdant du scrutin – demeure importante, risquent de paralyser l’action gouvernementale, d’autant plus menacée par le spectre d’une intervention militaire dans la vie politique. L’écroulement prématuré du pacte de stabilité et du gouvernement de consensus de Martinho Ndafa Cabi en mars 2008 résultait déjà d’une alliance ponctuelle entre le chef de l’Etat Nino Vieira et le président du PAIGC Carlos Gomes Junior. Leur profonde inimitié, tout comme de probables renversements d’alliances au sein du PAIGC, pourraient néanmoins très bien réserver le même sort au nouveau Premier ministre avant les élections présidentielles prévues pour 2010.
Une grande opacité persiste toujours autour de la tentative de coup d’Etat instiguée, selon les autorités, par le chef de la marine en juillet 2008 et de la tentative d’assassinat contre Nino Vieira survenue une semaine après le vote des législatives en novembre. Quelles que soient les circonstances exactes, ces deux évènements illustrent la fragilité politique du pays et l’instrumentalisation des factions de l’armée dans les tentatives de règlements de compte entre les hommes politiques.
La population est la première à payer le prix de l’instabilité du fait du marasme institutionnel et économique qui paralyse le pays tandis que les classes politiques et militaires s’enferment dans des querelles incessantes. En votant massivement et dans le calme, les Bissau-guinéens ont démontré leur désir de rupture avec les pratiques politiques qui ont marqué le pays depuis l’indépendance, plébiscitant la candidature de Carlos Gomes Junior au poste de Premier ministre. Son image rompt clairement avec celle des poids lourds de la vie politique du pays qui sont, pour la plupart, les mêmes depuis l’indépendance, et il est surtout connu pour son efficacité de gestionnaire des affaires de l’Etat lors de son passage à la primature entre 2004 et 2005.
Afin de poursuivre les réformes institutionnelles engagées par le gouvernement de consensus, le pays a tout autant besoin d’un Premier ministre compétent et réformiste que d’une véritable entente entre les acteurs politiques sur les objectifs et les priorités de l’action gouvernementale. Depuis 2007, la Guinée-Bissau bénéficie d’un regain d’intérêt de la communauté internationale qui l’avait largement abandonnée après la gestion désastreuse des affaires de l’Etat sous la présidence de Kumba Yala (1999-2003). Cet intérêt n’aura qu’une durée de vie limitée si l’instabilité politique continue à retarder la mise en œuvre du programme de réformes élaboré avec les partenaires internationaux.
Abstract: Le présent rapport est soumis en application du paragraphe 14 de la résolution
1233 (1999) du Conseil de sécurité par lequel ce dernier m’a prié de le tenir
périodiquement informé de l’évolution de la situation en Guinée-Bissau et des
activités du Bureau d’appui des Nations Unies pour la consolidation de la paix en
Guinée-Bissau (BANUGBIS) et de lui présenter un rapport à ce sujet. Par la suite,
au paragraphe 11 de sa résolution 1580 (2004), le Conseil m’a prié de lui rendre
compte par écrit tous les trois mois. Le présent rapport porte sur les événements survenus depuis mon rapport
précédent (S/2008/628), daté du 29 septembre 2008, en particulier sur les élections
législatives tenues le 16 novembre 2008 et sur les conditions de sécurité.
Abstract: The present report is submitted pursuant to paragraph 14 of Security Council
resolution 1233 (1999), by which the Council requested me to keep it regularly
informed and to submit a report on developments in Guinea-Bissau and on the
activities of the United Nations Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau
(UNOGBIS). Subsequently, in paragraph 11 of its resolution 1580 (2004), the
Council requested me to submit a written report to it every three months. The present report covers developments since my last report (S/2008/628),
dated 29 September 2008, with particular focus on the legislative elections held on
16 November 2008 and the security situation.
Abstract: This Project Review regarding the International Peace & Prosperity Project (IPPP) in
Guinea-Bissau was undertaken by CDA Collaborative Learning Projects on behalf of the
Alliance for Peacebuilding (AfP) and the private donor, Milt Lauenstein, with the willing
participation of the Canadian International Institute of Applied Negotiation (CIIAN), the
project implementer. The purposes of the Project Review were:
1. To discern whether and how the IPPP has contributed to reducing the likelihood
of political violence in Guinea-Bissau;
2. To suggest ways to proceed with additional IPPP engagements in Guinea-Bissau,
building on past efforts, and taking into account current political dynamics; and
3. To identify preliminary lessons that could be relevant to subsequent efforts to
prevent violent conflict, especially elsewhere in West Africa.1
The CDA team relied on two main sources of information: a) interviews with a wide
range of people in Guinea-Bissau, with a small number of regional observers in Dakar,
Senegal, and with project staff and consultants based mostly in Canada; and b) project
documents and other reports.
Abstract: The expansion of drug-trafficking networks in west Africa is further corroding Guinea-Bissau's institutions to produce the region's first narco-state, says Emmanuelle Bernard of the International Crisis Group.
Guinea-Bissau is most likely the world's next narco-state. The United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimates that much of the forty tons of cocaine that transits west Africa every year on its way from South America to Europe passes through the country. The traffickers are attracted by the weakness of Guinea-Bissua's political and administrative institutions. For their part, aid donors - concerned by political instability and public mismanagement - have been reluctant to provide financial support to tackle these core weaknesses. A brief moment of hope in 2007 that this might change was crushed. It may not return soon.
