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Abstract: 2010 was a dramatic year in Kyrgyzstan. In April, a revolt unseated the country`s leader for the second time in five years. In the aftermath of this upheaval, deadly ethnic riots in June took the life of over 400 people in southern Kyrgyzstan and led to the displacement of more than 100,000. After these events, parliamentary elections were held in October bringing hope for sta-bility and peaceful developments.
Those elections inspired observers to talk about a historical watershed of de-mocratic politics and a parliamentary system in Central Asia. Yet in order to understand the challenges and opportunities ahead and assess whether a fresh start for Kyrgyzstan is likely, it is not sufficient to look at elections, or in-deed the formal structure of government. It is necessary to go beyond these to seek an understanding of how Kyrgyzstan‟s politics actually have come to work since independence.
Abstract: In Kyrgyzstan the risk of instability remains.
The country practices genuine elections
and power-sharing, is open to international
engagement, and promotes basic rights
such as free speech. In 2010 Kyrgyzstan
adopted a new Constitution, moving
away from a super-presidential model to
a system in which the president and the
parliament share power more equally. Its
economic performance is positive: the IMF
assessed that the economy recovered
quickly due to improved security and
political stability, better-than-expected
agricultural performance and a timely fiscal
stimulus. However, it is the only ex-Soviet
state to undergo two turbulent regime
changes – the so called ‘Tulip-1’and
‘Tulip-2’ revolutions of 2005 and 2010 –
and is affected by a strong regional split
between the North and the South, one of
the factors behind both ‘revolutions’. This
makes Kyrgyzstan a country of paradoxes
where it mixes positive developments with
severe threats to its stability.
Abstract: This report concludes that criminal investigations into the 2010 violence have been marred by widespread use of arbitrary arrests and ill-treatment, including torture. Prosecutorial authorities have refused to investigate allegations of torture, and courts have relied heavily on confessions allegedly extracted under torture to sentence defendants to long prison sentences after court hearings in which threats and other forms of intimidation and, in some cases, physical attacks against defendants and their lawyers went unchallenged. The profoundly flawed investigations and trials, mainly affecting the ethnic Uzbek minority, undermine efforts to promote reconciliation and fuel tensions that might one day lead to renewed violence.
Abstract: Failure to deliver justice for the killing, rape and torture of civilians could lead to further clashes, Amnesty International warned ahead of the first anniversary of the violence that shook southern parts of Kyrgyzstan.
Four days of violent clashes between ethnic Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbeks in the Osh and Jalal-Abad areas on 10-14 June 2010 left about 470 people dead, thousands injured and hundreds of thousands displaced.
According to local observers, 74 per cent of those killed were Uzbek and 25 per cent Kyrgyz.
One year on, Amnesty International's briefing, Still waiting for justice, calls on the Kyrgyzstani authorities to establish the truth about what happened and provide justice for the thousands of victims and their families.
"The failure to bring to justice those behind the violence could provide fertile soil for the seeds of future turmoil and future human rights violations," said Nicola Duckworth, Amnesty International's Europe and Central Asia Programme Director.
"While the authorities have made some positive steps, such as providing compensation for the victims and promising to review allegations of torture, they still have much to do to address the litany of human rights violations that occurred during and after the violence and restore the confidence of all ethnic groups in Kyrgyzstan that they have an equal stake in the country’s future.”
About 20 cases of rape and other sexual violence have been documented during the violence but human rights monitors believe the real number to be much higher. Many of the victims were Uzbek women and girls and the perpetrators mostly Kyrgyz men.
Abstract: The popular uprisings that swept the Arab world in early 2011 have been compared by some commentators to the fall of the Berlin Wall. In an exhilarating push for democratic change, long-term rulers have been ousted and others challenged seriously for the first time. But despite what has been achieved, many voices from the region have urged caution: even in those countries which have seen the greatest changes, the internal security apparatus and other structures of repression have remained largely intact and the struggle for real constitutional reform continues. The ability of a state to undergo political change without violence is widely considered a hallmark of a mature democracy (although the record shows that democracies, even very old ones, are hardly immune from violent conflict). Which combination of circumstances, then, makes the onset of mass killing more likely and which conditions lower the risk of a state, even an autocratic one, descending to bloody violence? It is to help answer such questions that Minority Rights Group International has developed the Peoples under Threat index. Since 2005 Peoples under Threat has pioneered the use of statistical analysis to identify situations around the world where communities are most at risk of mass killing. On numerous occasions since the index was first developed, countries that have risen sharply up the table have later proved to be the scene of mass human rights violations.
Abstract: The Independent International Commission of Inquiry into the Events in southern Kyrgyzstan was established after the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, H.E. Ms. Roza Otunbayeva asked Dr. Kimmo Kiljunen, Special Representative for Central Asia, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly to coordinate the preparation process to establish it. After broad consultation with numerous international bodies, including the UN, the OSCE, the EU, the CIS and the office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, the terms of reference were established and endorsed. The KIC was mandated to investigate the facts and circumstances relevant to incidents that took place in southern Kyrgyzstan in June 2010, qualify the violations and crimes under international law, determine responsibilities and make recommendations, particularly on accountability measures, so as to ensure the non-repetition of the violations and to contribute towards peace, stability and reconciliation.
The present report is based upon extensive interviews and analysis conducted by the KIC in Kyrgyzstan and elsewhere. In excess of 750 witnesses, 700 documents and many thousands of photographs and video extracts were considered by the KIC. The KIC has been able to establish a detailed and accurate narrative of the June events in Osh and Jalalabad. The events must be viewed in the context of the historical and political background of the region, particularly the relationship between the communities of ethnic Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbeks. In this regard the KIC notes the under-representation of ethnic Uzbeks in public life and the rising force of ethno-nationalism in the politics of Kyrgyzstan. The KIC notes further the power vacuum and consequent political rivalries, fragile state institutions and the weak rule of law in southern Kyrgyzstan in the wake of the 7 April overthrow of the Bakiyev government.
The events resulted in significant loss of life and injury, of which the majority of victims were ethnic Uzbeks. In total about 470 people died. It is expected that this figure will grow but not substantially. About 1,900 people received medical assistance at hospitals. Many thousands of people were displaced. About 111,000 people were displaced to Uzbekistan and a further 300,000 were internally displaced. There was also significant property damage, again to a disproportionately high number of ethnic Uzbek owned properties. In total about 2,800 properties were damaged. The KIC notes that ethnic Kyrgyz also suffered very significant losses, in terms of life, health and property. The KIC has found that both communities suffered loss.
Abstract: In June 2010, southern Kyrgyzstan erupted in a series of extremely violent confrontations involving Kyrgyz and Uzbeks groups. Within three days the clashes claimed the lives of at least 400 people, left more than 2,500 injured and created a refugee disaster with 400,000 displaced persons, a large number of which crossed the nearby border to Uzbekistan.
Promoting a Stable and Multiethnic Kyrgyzstan: Overcoming the Causes and Legacies of Violence, the third edition of the Occasional Paper Series of the Open Society Central Eurasia Project, looks into causes and legacies of violence in southern Kyrgyzstan and offers recommendations for actions that should be taken by institutions and groups within Kyrgyzstan, neighboring states, and the international community.
Abstract: The war in Afghanistan has added considerably to the strategic significance of Central Asia due to its proximity to the conflict. Moreover, the continuation of the war increasingly involves the vital interests of many other actors other than the U.S. and NATO forces currently there. This monograph, taken from SSI's conference with European and Russian scholars in 2010, provides a comprehensive analysis of the means and objectives of Russia's involvement in Central Asia. It also provides Russian perspectives concerning the other actors in Central Asia and how Moscow views the policy significance of those efforts.
Abstract: China’s rise on the international stage has been accompanied by an increase in its military’s presence. Beijing’s expanding ambition is prompting calls on the country’s leaders to be more proactive in protecting its national interests. These calls by Chinese analysts have raised concerns about the military’s capability to mobilize troops to defend the country’s vast borders.
Abstract: The Central Asia emergency began on 10 June 2010, when violence broke out in
the city of Osh and subsequently spread to Jalalabad in southern Kyrgyzstan.
Clashes between ethnic Uzbeks and ethnic Kyrgyz left hundreds of people dead and
up to 400,000 displaced, almost 20 per cent of the population of Osh and Jalalabad.
Thousands more were affected but not displaced by the violence.
This document provides a report of a lessons-learned workshop on the UNHCR
emergency operation in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan between June and November
2010. The workshop was held in Istanbul, Turkey, on 6-7 December 2010, and
convened by UNHCR’s Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific (RBAP) and
Regional Office for Central Asia (ROCA).
Abstract: This report collects statistics from a variety of sources on casualties sustained during Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), which began on October 7, 2001, and is ongoing. OEF actions take place primarily in Afghanistan; however, OEF casualties also includes American casualties in Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Guantanamo Bay (Cuba), Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Jordan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, the Philippines, Seychelles, Sudan, Tajikistan, Turkey, and Yemen. Casualty data of U.S. military forces are compiled by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), as tallied from the agency's press releases. Also included are statistics on those wounded but not killed.
Because the estimates of Afghan casualties contained in this report are based on varying time periods and have been created using different methodologies, readers should exercise caution when using them and should look to them as guideposts rather than as statements of fact. This report will be updated as needed.
Abstract: Partial Truth and Selective Justice examines the efforts to establish the truth about what happened during four days that saw large-scale arson, looting and violent attacks, including killings and sexual violence sweep through southern Kyrgyzstan, disproportionately affecting majority Uzbek-populated areas. Hundreds were left dead and hundreds of thousands were forced to flee their homes. The report also investigates efforts to provide accountability for the human rights abuses committed by all parties to the violence.
Abstract: As Kyrgyzstan plunges into crisis and the threat of a second Afghanistan in Central Asia looms
large, the situation in the “Big Caucasus” seems less pressing and thus overshadowed.
But there is a great paradox in this situation. Identifying itself as a guarantor of Caucasus stability
and security, Russia faces serious challenges inside its own country in the North Caucasus area.
Moreover, in 2009 the situation there was characterized as the most important domestic policy
issue by President Dmitry Medvedev in the Presidential Message to the Federal Assembly.
The worst
scenarios predicted by analysts and politicians for the period after the 2008 August war have not
been realized. The Russian attempt to “replace the regime” of Mikhail Saakashvili or apply the
Georgian pattern in Ukraine, expected by many in the West, has not taken place. Neither have the
attempts from the West (the United States, NATO, and others) to “nudge Georgia into a
rematch,” which were expected in Moscow. Nonetheless, the Caucasus region remains one of the
most vulnerable spaces in Eurasia. In the Caucasus region, the first precedent of a revision of
borders between the former Soviet republics was established. For the first time in Eurasia, and
particularly in the Caucasus, partially recognized states have emerged. While their independence
is denied by the United Nations, it is recognized by the Russian Federation, a permanent member
of the UN Security Council. After the “hot August” of 2008, Moscow demonstrated its willingness
to play the role of a revisionist state for the first time since 1991. Russia defines the “Big
Caucasus” as the sphere of its vital interests and priorities and consequently pretends to be a key
stakeholder for the whole region.
Sergey Markedonov is a visiting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Program at CSIS. The Russia and
Eurasia Program is grateful to the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its support of the visiting scholar
program and the policy paper series connected with it.
As a
result, the Kremlin and the federal government brought in an official post—special
plenipotentiary—with broadened functions in the newly created North Caucasus Federal District.
For the first time in the Russia’s post-Soviet history, this official has the rank of the deputy prime
minister.
Abstract: On October 10, 2010, Kyrgyzstan held parliamentary elections. According to reports, the elections were surprisingly free and fair. Unfortunately, the problem of state criminalization remains. The new government will face a tough task when dealing with this problem. The conflict that erupted in June in southern Kyrgyzstan is generally seen as being driven by external factors, such as Islamic radicals exploiting socio-economic grievances and the extreme politicization of ethnicity and identity. Although these are important factors, the role of organized crime in the outbreak of ethnic conflict should not be overlooked. Behind the conflict lies the interplay between external and domestic factors as well as the link between regional/local organized crime and the corrupt family politics of former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev.
Abstract: This International Center for Transitional Justice report is based on interviews with more than 30 civil society organizations and high-level government officials conducted during an expert mission to Kyrgyzstan in June 2010. Funded by the Open Society Foundations, it discusses how Kyrgyzstan might deal with rights abuses over the past 15 years, including the period leading up to the April 2010 revolution as well as political and ethnic violence that erupted in June.
Assessing a Transitional Justice Approach for Kyrgyzstan considers interim government initiatives on truth-seeking, prosecutions, reforms, and reparations for victims. It raises concerns about some of these measures, and makes recommendations for further and more effective progress in these areas. The report also recommends steps to counter ongoing impunity, as well as to combat widespread corruption, and address electoral issues as well as systemic shortfalls in law enforcement and justice institutions.
Abstract: This briefing paper tracks the evolution of, and trends in, U.S. military and police aid to
Central Asian countries pre- and post-9/11. In particular, it seeks to identify assistance
associated with agreements with countries in the region to provide base and transit access
to United States and allied militaries for the war in Afghanistan. While the United States
does not pay “rent” for military bases, this report includes a primer on the relevant U.S.
military aid programs (both traditional and new) that are used as compensation for basing
and other access rights, including for Central Asian participation in the recently launched
Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a land-based supply route for U.S. and allied forces
that runs through Central Asia to Afghanistan. The U.S. government has no comprehensive budget for the assistance it provides
to the police, militaries, and other Central Asian security forces; however,
in the fullest accounting available to date, this report documents that the United States provided at least $145 million in military aid through 19 different budgets
and programs in one year (fiscal year 2007). This amount is nearly half of the total
of $329 million that the U.S. government gave to Central Asian governments in
2007, and it is six times the amount the U.S. government spent to promote rule of
law, democratic governance, and respect for fundamental human rights in that same year.
Abstract: Afghanistan’s neighbors that garner the most attention in policy debates about resolving its conflicts are Iran and Pakistan. The five post-Soviet states to Afghanistan’s north—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—also will have a hand in determining Afghanistan’s future, though their relevance is often discounted and there is little understanding of exactly what their role might be. Joshua Foust’s paper explains how and why these bordering countries do not view the war in Afghanistan in the same terms as do the United States, Russia, Europe, or the Security Council collectively. In some cases, the interests of these Central Asian neighbors run counter to those of the more global players seeking to determine Afghanistan’s future. In this paper he explores:
* Transnational Threats. The Central Asian states face two major threats to the stability of their brittle regimes, which are exacerbated by uncertainty in Afghanistan: criminal networks (especially human and narcotics trafficking) and Islamic extremism.
* Regional Economic Development. The potential for economic gain, whether through cooperative resource extraction, international trade, or energy production, could be a vehicle for realizing broader engagement with Afghanistan by Central Asia’s countries.
* Contributions to a Regional Solution in Afghanistan. While they are currently preoccupied with internal issues, Foust sees considerable opportunity for increasing cooperation among countries in the region in an effort to aid the international community’s efforts in Afghanistan.
Abstract: The recent Uzbek-Kyrgyz clashes following the second overthrow of the government in five years have not only highlighted the authoritarian state's ineffectiveness in providing enduring stability but also undermined its integrity and sovereignty. Only earnest democratization and nation-building will ensure a stable future. In these conditions the people of Kyrgyzstan should answer three questions when pondering the country’s future: how Kyrgyzstan wants to organize itself internally; in what regional environment it wants to live; and what it needs to do to achieve the first two. Failure to do so will put the country’s sovereignty at risk. As Kyrgyzstan seeks to pursue enduring stability, it should concentrate on the following short and long-term tasks.
Abstract: Kyrgyzstan is a small Central Asian country situated on borders of China and Kazakhstan. It
is mostly known to the world as a host to both US and Russian military bases; but also offers
the possibility to explore the interrelationship between the weakening of the state and the rise
of politicised ethnicity. This led to massive clashes in June 2010 in the South, in which an
estimated two-thousand people died1 and hundreds of thousands were displaced. This was the
most dramatic, but not the only occasion of political turbulence. Kyrgyzstan has been the only
post-Soviet country that has survived two forceful regime changes since independence. Other
countries that experienced ‘colour revolutions’ in the 2000s – Ukraine and Georgia −
achieved a certain degree of stabilisation, while Kyrgyzstan suffered the worst interethnic
clashes at a time when it seemed that the period of rampant nationalism, characteristic of the
former Soviet republics in the early 1990s, was over. As a result, from a ‘Switzerland of
Central Asia’ it emerged as its Bosnia: a volatile place, which its neighbours fear, as
Kyrgyzstan became transformed from an international development success into a complex
emergency, which would require considerable humanitarian assistance.
This paper follows the political trajectory of the state, which entered a crisis and shows few
signs of stabilisation. It deals with this from two perspectives, from within the analytical
framework of the Crisis States Research Centre: as a fragile state; and with the rise in
politicised ethnicity, through an exploration of nationalism. The study is based
both on available written sources, and the author’s interviews and field observations carried
out in Kyrgyzstan in 2009 and from May to July 2010.
Abstract: Five actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and none improved in August 2010, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch.
The situation in Somalia continued to deteriorate as al-Shabaab stepped up its attacks and fighting intensified in Mogadishu.
Kyrgyzstan’s provisional government was further weakened in August. The month began with an attempted coup and culminated with the mayor of the southern city of Osh – the epicenter of June’s pogroms – defying the President’s orders to resign.
In Kashmir, anti-Indian protests that began in June worsened in August with at least 40 demonstrators killed in clashes with the police, bringing the total death toll to over 60.
In Northern Ireland dissident Republicans launched a spate of bomb attacks throughout the month in an attempt to derail the peace process. Meanwhile, in Bahrain over 200 people, including high-level Shiite political leaders, have been reported arrested in a government crackdown ahead of October’s parliamentary elections, fueling almost daily clashes between security forces and Shiite opposition supporters.
CrisisWatch identifies a conflict resolution opportunity for Kosovo in September, as the EU makes intensive diplomatic efforts to produce a UN General Assembly resolution acceptable to both Serbia and Kosovo that could serve as a basis for a comprehensive settlement.
CrisisWatch also identifies a conflict resolution opportunity for Israel, as direct peace talks between Israel and Palestine – the first in almost two years – are due to restart in Washington on 2 September.
Abstract: The Pogroms in Kyrgyzstan, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, highlights the risk of spiralling violence in the south of Kyrgyzstan and the central government’s loss of control over the region. It calls for the Kyrgyz government to support an internationally backed enquiry into the pogroms which took place in May and June 2010 in Jalalabad and in Osh. It also urges the international community to form a united front in calling on the Kyrgyz government to address the root causes of the violence, and in warning the country’s leadership of the dangers of inaction and denial. [...] Successive governments have failed to address ethnic tensions in the south or even to admit their existence. Many features of the 2010 violence strongly resemble the last round of bloody ethnic clashes, in 1990. One of the most striking differences, however, is that twenty years ago, a large number of elite Soviet troops were deployed in the region for six months to normalise the situation. This time, a weaker government facing a greater challenge has refused any external help, unrealistically arguing that it can handle the situation itself. In fact, the government has now lost control of a significant part of southern Kyrgyzstan, where the mayor of Osh, Melis Myrzakmatov, publicly rejects the president’s authority. The Kyrgyz government should take a strong public stand against positions of extreme nationalism by prominent national and regional politicians. The government of Kyrgyzstan, as well as donors and supporters, should support a full, open and internationally backed enquiry into the recent pogroms. Given the weakness of the Kyrgyz government, responsibility rests upon the shoulders of the international community. It should play a more forthright role than usual in raising the long-term dangers to Kyrgyzstan of extremism, the need to restore the central government’s political control over the city of Osh, and the urgent necessity of reconciliation between ethnic communities.
Abstract: Weeks after the June outbreak of violence in the South, Kyrgyzstan remains gripped by instability and uncertainty regarding issues ranging from rebuilding in the South, to the upcoming October 10th parliamentary election. There is a strong potential for continued conflict in the country if these issues are not addressed. This factsheet provides a summary of a presentation made by Dr. Eric M. McGlinchey of George Mason University, recently returned from Osh, Jalalabad, and Bazar-Korgon. He discusses common explanations within southern Kyrgyzstan for the origins of the conflict, as well as their policy implications, both for the international community and for Kyrgyzstan.
Abstract: From June 10 to 14, 2010, ethnic violence engulfed southern Kyrgyzstan, claiming hundreds
of lives and resulting in massive destruction of property. Human Rights Watch has conducted an extensive, on-the-ground investigation into the
violence and its aftermath, from June 10 to July 25, 2010. This report is based on over 200
interviews with Kyrgyz and Uzbek victims and witnesses, lawyers, human rights defenders,
and community activists, as well as local government officials, law enforcement and military
personnel, and military and civilian prosecutors.
The report recreates the chronology of the June violence, and analyzes the role of the Kyrgyz
security forces in the events, including the enormous challenges they faced coping with the
violence, allegations of their failure to prevent and stop the bloodshed and allegations of
their direct involvement in it. It further examines patterns of arbitrary arrests, ill-treatment,
torture in custody, and other violations of due process rights during the government’s
investigation into the June events, and documents continued interethnic violence and the
authorities’ failure to respond adequately to it.
Abstract: By opening its borders to some 100,000 vulnerable ethnic Uzbek refugees fleeing deadly violence in southern Kyrgyzstan, the Uzbekistan government demonstrated rare humanitarianism and respect for international law. After the clashes subsided, Uzbekistan arranged with Kyrgyzstan to encourage the refugees to voluntarily return for Kyrgyzstan’s June 27 constitutional referendum. While Uzbekistan and its citizens should be commended for their humane actions they should be encouraged, along with their neighbors, to provide temporary asylum to any refugee at risk and cease any deportation of those still fearing persecution if returned to Kyrgyzstan.
Abstract: In recent months, Kyrgyzstan has experienced violent ethnic clashes as its leaders lay the groundwork for Central Asia’s first genuine parliamentary democracy. In testimony before the Helsinki Commission, Martha Olcott explains what the United States can do in the months ahead to help bring much-needed stability to Kyrgyzstan. "Have the developments in Kyrgyzstan been the product of a pent-up thirst for democracy
on the part of the country’s population and political opposition, or are they a sign of state
failure? As my remarks will suggest, the reality is somewhere between the two. The challenge
for U.S. policy makers, therefore, is to find ways to encourage democratic development
while simultaneously trying to rectify the situations which are leading to state failure and
which could further stimulate ethnic unrest."
