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Abstract: This Policy Brief examines the real and imagined influence of al-Qa‘ida in North Africa and the Sahel. Despite a perception of the transnationalization of terrorist movements in North Africa under al-Qa‘ida’s banner, robust evidence of an effective al-Qa‘ida’s expansion in the Maghreb and the Sahara/Sahel region remains elusive at best. Rather, doubts about al-Qa‘ida’s actual threat and the efficacy of international response in the context of pervasive state failure in the Sahel raise questions regarding the policy objectives of US-led counter-terrorism in the region.
Abstract: Key facts and figures for Sudan with a focus on Darfur as of June 2011. Categories include:
- Geography and demographics Area Sudan
- Map and focus areas
- Human Development (HDI, Sudan)
- Economy, Budget and Aid
- GDP / govt revenue ($bn, Sudan)
- Aid ($bn, Sudan)
- Health
- Acute respiratory infections (incidents / 10,000 population, Darfur)
- Nutrition
- Food security
- Cereal production (‘000 MT, Darfur)
- Population
- Urbanization (%,Sudan)
- Min. food basket (SDG / day, Darfur)
- Education
- Water and sanitation
- Environment
- Conflict and fatalities (Darfur)
- Fatalities Darfur
- UN & Partners Work Plan 2011
- Displacement and refugees
- Villages affected (Darfur, cum. total)
- UNAMID
Abstract: Politics, Religion and Power in the Great Lakes Region covers the political, religious and power relations in the contemporary Great Lakes States : Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Kenya and the Sudan. The work is important because of the nexus between these countries’ shared present and past - their political, socio-economic, cultural and historical aspirations. In terms of regional cooperation, they are the countries, save for the DRC and the Sudan, which form the current East African Community.
The book reflects on the complex dynamics and strategies of the ensuing power struggle, bringing forth a unique set of fascinating revelations of patterns of primitive capital accumulation, resistance, human rights violations and the political compromises between traditional enemies when confronted by a common (foreign) enemy. A critical analysis of the political distortion the region suffered brings to light the relevance of these divisive tools on the current trends in the African countries, drawing inferences from the African Great Lakes Region (GLR).
The study highlights how the conflicts were finally resolved to avert a serious war, thus bringing about new reforms. This history is instructive to the contemporary reader because of the frequent skirmishes caused by ethnic and religious differences, political and territorial conflicts as well as resource and leadership disputes in the GLR.
Abstract: It would be hard to conceive of two States that offer greater contrasts than
Somalia and Eritrea: the former, a collapsed State for over two decades, with no
functional national institutions; the latter, possessing the most highly centralized,
militarized and authoritarian system of government on the African continent. From a
sanctions monitoring perspective, however, the two countries present very similar
challenges: in both cases, power is concentrated in the hands of individuals rather
than institutions and is exercised through largely informal and often illicit networks
of political and financial control. Leaders in both countries often depend more
heavily on political and economic support from foreign Governments and diaspora
networks than from the populations within their own borders. And both countries —
in very different ways — serve as platforms for foreign armed groups that represent a
grave and increasingly urgent threat to peace and security in the Horn and East
Africa region.
More than half of Somali territory is controlled by responsible, comparatively
stable authorities that have demonstrated, to varying degrees, their capacity to
provide relative peace and security to their populations. Without exception, the
administrations of Somaliland, Puntland, Gaalmudug, and “Himan iyo Heeb”
evolved independently of centralized State-building initiatives, from painstaking,
organic local political processes. Much of Galguduud region is controlled by anti-Al-
Shabaab clan militias loosely unified under the umbrella of Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a
(ASWJ), but lacks a functional authority. Consolidation of and cooperation between
such entities represents the single most effective strategy for countering threats like
extremism and piracy, while expanding peace and security in Somalia.
Abstract: What role do women play in statebuilding? How do statebuilding processes affect women's participation? Support for statebuilding has become the dominant model for international engagement in post-conflict contexts, yet donor approaches lack substantial gender analysis and are missing opportunities to promote gender equality. This paper presents findings from a research project on the impact of post-conflict statebuilding on women's citizenship. It argues that gender inequalities are linked to the underlying political settlement, and that donors must therefore address gender as a fundamentally political issue.
Abstract: Aid will continue to be an important resource flow to underwrite the provision of basic services and to meet humanitarian needs in a country where the state, still only six years old, lacks capacity, where the economy is overwhelmingly dependent on a single commodity and where humanitarian crisis thresholds are still frequently exceeded. But since becoming a nation state in its own right, the way in which the international donor community engages with the new Republic of South Sudan is changing fast. In this briefing paper, we summarise some of the immediate aid data and aid management changes that are underway
Abstract: Education has been long neglected in
emergency relief efforts. In 2007, Save
the Children estimated that more than 39
million children and youth who are affected by
armed conflict do not have access to education.
In mid-2007, the Women’s Refugee Commission
(formerly called the Women’s Commission for
Refugee Women and Children) approached the
Population Council about conducting research
on the protective role of education in conflict.
The result was a collaboration between the two
organizations on a research project in Darfur,
Sudan. The Darfur region has been significantly
affected by displacement from ongoing conflict.
Given the large size of the affected population,
the level of international involvement, and
the documented violations against children
and youth, Darfur serves as a compelling case
study of the extent of educational coverage for
primary-school-age children in this setting as
well as certain basic elements of educational
quality. The ultimate goal of the project was to
improve the well-being of displaced children and
youth through increasing the provision of quality
and safe education. This report is the outcome of
the research project.
Abstract: Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP) has found evidence consistent with allegations that the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Government of Sudan-aligned (GoS) militias have apparently engaged in a campaign of systematic mass killing of civilians in Kadugli, South Kordofan. Under the Rome Statute and other international humanitarian law, the systematic killing of civilians in peace or war by their own government can constitute crimes against humanity.
Based on an analysis of DigitalGlobe satellite imagery and eyewitness reports obtained by the Satellite Sentinel Project, SSP has identified a site consistent with mass graves in Kadugli. SSP has found evidence corroborating at least four, independent eyewitness accounts that SAF, GoS-aligned militias and other GoS-aligned forces are present in Kadugli and are alleged to be methodically searching houses for civilians. The four eyewitnesses claim that the SAF and GoS-aligned militias are systematically killing those suspected of supporting the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and others.
SSP has also found evidence consistent with a possible pile of people in body bags or white plastic tarps in Kadugli. This imagery corroborates an eyewitness account of bodies being placed in body bags or some form of white plastic tarp by SAF and GoS-aligned militia forces.
Detailed situation reports from UN agencies and other aid providers are severely limited due to the lack of free and unfettered access to Kadugli town. In the absence of on-the-ground reports from humanitarian actors and journalists, eyewitness reports from those who were in Kadugli town within the past month, combined with satellite imagery analysis, are the only available means of assessing the situation there at present.
Abstract: Background: Despite the serious consequences of conflict for reproductive
health, populations affected by conflict and its aftermath face tremendous
barriers to accessing reproductive health services, due to insecurity,
inadequate numbers of trained personnel and lack of supplies. Family
planning is often particularly neglected.
Methods: In six conflict-affected areas in Sudan, northern Uganda and the
Democratic Republic of Congo, household surveys of married or in-union
women of reproductive age were conducted to determine baseline measures
of family planning knowledge, attitudes and behaviors regarding
contraception. Health facility assessments were carried out to assess baseline
measures of family planning services availability. Data were double-entered
into CSPro 3.2 and exported to SAS 9.2, which was used to calculate
descriptive statistics. The studies’ purposes were to guide program activities
and to serve as a baseline against which program accomplishments could be
measured.
Results: Knowledge of modern contraceptive methods was low relative to
other sub-Saharan African countries, and use of modern methods was under
4 percent in four sites; in two sites with prior family planning services it was 12 percent
and 16.2 percent. From 30 percent to 40 percent of women reported they did not want a child
within two years, however, and an additional 12 percent to 35 percent wanted no
additional children, suggesting a clear need for family planning services. The
health facilities assessment showed that at most only one-third of the facilities
mandated to provide family planning had the necessary staff, equipment and
supplies to do so adequately; in some areas, none of the facilities were
prepared to offer such services.
Conclusions: Family planning services are desired by women living in crisis
situations when offered in a manner appropriate to their needs, yet services
are rarely adequate to meet these needs. Refugee and internally displaced
women must be included in national and donors’ plans to improve family
planning in Africa.
Abstract: The increasing number of South Sudan’s armed forces is costing more than 50 percent of government’s expenditure by some estimates – despite a two-year-old US$55 million demobilization and disarmament programme (DDR) sponsored by international donors.
Only about 12,000 people in South Sudan have completed the DDR process that targeted 90,000 ex-combatants. All armed groups in South Sudan are being consolidated under the former rebel army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), and its political wing, the Sudan’s People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), will form the country’s first government after a referendum held earlier this year overwhelmingly voted to secede from Khartoum-ruled Sudan.
The UN Development Programme (UNDP) told IRIN in a statement the DDR programme - established as part of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between the North and South after a 21-year-long civil war - aimed for the re-integration of 180,000 ex-combatants by 2012 - or 90,000 from each country.
The apparent failure to entice soldiers into civilian life is both a consequence of the country’s desperate poverty, the relatively high salaries paid to soldiers and the delays encountered in starting up DDR.
Abstract: The independent Republic of South Sudan emerged Saturday from the ravages of half a century of war, deprivation, destruction, and displacement. Its freedom was guaranteed overwhelmingly by a self-determination held last January, and, today, it is impossible to resist the celebratory urges evident in Juba, the new capital. But this birth occurs against an exceedingly grim backdrop that suggests resumed war between Sudan and, now, South Sudan is much closer than diplomats and analysts have allowed themselves to say, or perhaps even think. The threats of conflict in the border regions of Abyei and South Kordofan are acute and growing more so by the day; Khartoum also continues to bomb civilian targets in the northern part of Unity State, which is in the new South Sudan, and supports deadly renegade militias.Indeed, war has steadily become more likely than peace.
Abstract: Mass atrocities are organized crimes. Those who commit
genocide and crimes against humanity depend on third
parties for the goods and services—money, matériel,
political support, and a host of other resources—that
sustain large-scale violence against civilians. Third parties
have supplied military aircraft used by the Sudan Armed
Forces against civilians, refined gold and other minerals
coming out of eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo,
and ensured a steady flow of arms into Rwanda.
Governments seeking to prevent atrocities cannot afford a
narrow and uncoordinated focus on the perpetrators of
such violence. Rather, an effective strategy must include
identifying and pressuring third-party enablers—
individuals, commercial entities, and countries—in order to
interrupt the supply chains that fuel mass violence against
civilians.
The first-ever Director of War Crimes, Atrocities, and
Civilian Protection on the National Security Staff recently
convened a meeting that appears to initiate an
interagency structure to coordinate atrocities-prevention
initiatives across the government. The Administration has
an opportunity in the newly initiated structure to activate all
of the U.S. government’s resources to institute an
atrocities-prevention policy that goes beyond responding
to individual crises. This structure should incorporate a
systematic approach to disrupting enablers and should
ensure that all possible tools are developed and used to
counter these complex crimes. The intelligence
community and the Department of the Treasury, along
with the Departments of State and Defense, are key to
successfully tackling third-party enablers of atrocities.
Abstract: This report provides an overview of the CSIS study series examining the risks of instability in 10 African countries over the next decade. The 10 papers are designed to be complementary but can also be read individually as self-standing country studies. The overview draws on common themes and explains the methodology underpinning the research. The project was commissioned by the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). The papers in this series are not meant to offer hard and fast predictions about the future. While they sketch out some potential scenarios for the next 10 years, these efforts should be treated as thought experiments that look at how different dynamics might converge to create the conditions for instability. The intention is not to single out countries believed to be at risk of impending disaster and make judgments about how they will collapse. Few, if any, of the countries in this series are at imminent risk of breakdown. All of them have coping mechanisms that militate against conflict, and discussions of potential “worst-case scenarios” have to be viewed with this qualification in mind.
Abstract: This report is part of a series examining the risks of instability in 10 African countries over the next decade. The papers in this study are not meant to offer hard and fast predictions about the future. While they sketch out some potential scenarios for the next 10 years, these efforts should be treated as thought experiments that look at how different dynamics might converge to create the conditions for instability. Given the upcoming independence of Southern Sudan, CSIS is launching this series of studies with its Sudan report.
Key Points in this report:
1. Sudan's long-term stability depends on whether the country's north and south can reach and fully implement equitable agreements on the terms of their separation in July 2011.
2. North Sudan faces a highly volatile period during the next decade. The ruling National Congress Party will face growing calls for political change, an economic slump, and the possibility of armed challenges from within. There is the added risk of contagion from the uprisings seen elsewhere in North Africa. The regime will most likely use violence to confront these challenges. The prospect of civil war cannot be ruled out.
3. South Sudan faces the enormous challenge of the need to establish a functioning state with few resources in the face of serious security challenges. Its stability will depend on establishing its legitimacy as a state, which will mean being able to provide services to its citizens and keeping them safe. The next decade is likely to see slow progress checked by frequent reversals.
Abstract: Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) moved into North Sudan's South Kordofan state capital Kadugli at the start of the month, triggering large-scale fighting with Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) units from the region. The UN reported heavy bombardment of villages by the SAF, widespread civilian casualties and at least 73,000 people forced to flee. It also accused the government of blocking aid deliveries and intimidating peacekeepers.
Violence spilled over into South Sudan, with several villages bombed by the North. On 28 June the government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (North) signed an agreement on political and security arrangements for South Kordofan and Blue Nile states.
In Afghanistan, a standoff between parliament and President Hamid Karzai threatens to deepen the country's political crisis.
Proposals by Senegal's ruling party to amend the constitution were condemned by opposition politicians as undemocratic and sparked unprecedented violent protests.
Myanmar/Burma saw its worst clashes since 2009, as fighting broke out between government forces and the Kachin ceasefire group. Tens of thousands have been displaced and some 20 reportedly killed.
In Mexico, a number of incidents highlighted the deterioration in security around Monterrey, the country's second city, industrial hub and capital of Nuevo León state.
In Venezuela, speculation about President Hugo Chávez's health intensified, leading to infighting within his ruling PSUV party and highlighting the country's lack of alternative leadership.
Abstract: The Framework Agreement between the Government of Sudan and Sudan People's Liberation Movement (North) on political partnership between NCP and SPLM and political and Security Arrangements in Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan states.
The document was signed by Presidential assistant Nafei Ali Nafei who is also the deputy chairman and Malik Agaar governor of Blue Nile state and SPLMN leader on Tuesday 28 June in Addis Ababa.
Abstract: While the world’s attention often gravitates to the latest emergency situation, we are acutely aware that
most of the world’s internally displaced persons (IDPs) live in protracted displacement. Displacement
drags on, sometimes for years or decades, because of continuing conflict, because peace processes are
stalled, or because political settlements fail to provide the necessary security and support for the displaced to find solutions.
The 2nd Expert Seminar on Protracted Internal Displacement was held in Geneva from 19-20 January 2011 on the theme of “IDPs in protracted displacement: Is local integration a solution?” Around 100 participants discussed challenges and possibilities of local integration in diverse protracted displacement situations over the course of the two days.
This publication includes the six case studies commissioned for the seminar as well as an introductory essay which
explores the common themes emerging from the studies on protracted displacement and local integration. By focusing on the possibilities and challenges of local integration in protracted displacement, we hope that these
six case studies lead to better understanding—and to concrete actions—which will bring an end to internal displacement
which has gone on for far too long in these six countries and in many others.
Abstract: Key facts and figures for Sudan with a focus on Darfur as of June 2011. Categories include:
- Geography and demographics
Area Sudan
- Map and focus areas
- Human Development (HDI, Sudan)
- Economy, Budget and Aid
- GDP / govt revenue ($bn, Sudan)
- Aid ($bn, Sudan)
- Health
- Acute respiratory infections (incidents / 10,000 population, Darfur)
- Nutrition
- Food security
- Cereal production (‘000 MT, Darfur)
- Population
- Urbanization (%,Sudan)
- Min. food basket (SDG / day, Darfur)
- Education
- Water and sanitation
- Environment
- Conflict and fatalities (Darfur)
- Fatalities Darfur
- UN & Partners Work Plan 2011
- Displacement and refugees
- Villages affected (Darfur, cum. total)
- UNAMID
Abstract: In July 2011, South Sudan will become an independent
nation. It will start life at a crossroad. The new country
faces immense challenges and immediate threats. Yet it
also has a unique opportunity to break with a past blighted
by war and chart a new course. Decisive leadership by the
Government of South Sudan (GoSS) and resolute support
from the international community could transform the
lives of southern Sudan’s people and make the new nation
a human development success story.
Education has a vital role to play in building a better future
for South Sudan. As in other areas, the GoSS
faces great challenges in education. It has some of the world’s lowest primary
school enrolment rates, highest dropout rates and widest
gender disparities. With limited financial resources, high levels
of poverty and insecurity, a fragile peace, and weak
institutions, it will not be easy to change this picture. Yet the challenges should not detract from the immense
opportunities.
Abstract: Southern Sudan’s independence referendum united the
region’s myriad ethnic groups in a common goal – to
separate from the north and form a new country.
According to official results, almost 99 per cent of
southerners voted for secession in January 2011. The
region, which is one of the poorest in the world, is expected
to declare independence on July 9. The Government of
Southern Sudan (GoSS), with aid from the international
community, now has a monumental task ahead of it: to
build a functioning state almost from the ground up.
The role of minorities must be a focal point in the
nation-building process. Southern Sudan is home to an
estimated 56 ethnic groups and almost 600 sub-groups.
Competition over access to scarce resources causes tensions
between groups; such tensions often explode into violence,
undermining development initiatives. There is also a danger
that ethnic concerns could hijack the political process even
as it develops. This could create a state dominated by the
interests of the most populous ethnic groups at the expense
of smaller ones.
The government now has a unique chance to capitalize
on the political mandate granted by southerners of diverse
backgrounds who voted overwhelmingly to form a new
nation. The GoSS should build on that spirit of solidarity
and take concrete measures to create a national identity
that is inclusive of all ethnicities, and ensure equitable
distribution of resources among all people.
Abstract: The upsurge in hostilities which broke out in Southern Kordofan State on 06 June has hardly come as a surprise to any seasoned observer of the Sudanese political scene. It took place against the backdrop of rising political and security tension in the area.
Last week, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) supported by the Popular Defence Forces (PDF) committed atrocities, including summary executions, wanton killings, arbitrary arrests, torture, arson and disappearances in addition to destruction of physical infrastructure and burning of churches particularly in Kadugli and Diling towns. Thousands of civilians were displaced as a result.
This catalogue of incidents constitutes serious crimes and violation of International Humanitarian Law and International Human Rights Conventions. Further increase in the scale and magnitude of these atrocities may upgrade their classification to crimes against humanity and genocide.
This report, compiled by Sudan Democracy First, documents a raft of crimes and human rights violations committed against the civilian population in Southern Kordofan/ Nuba Mountains State. It precludes the war crimes linked to the prosecution of war by the varied armed forces. The SAF, supported by NCP security services, central reserve police and PDF used disproportionate force, including heavy artilleries and indiscriminate bombings by Antonov and MIG-23 fighters of villages and areas mostly populated by Nuba ethnic groups. The security forces targeting of churches also imply serious concerns about the nature of the current military campaign. The forces also conducted house-to-house search and set up security check-points on Kadugli-Diling road, so as to identify then arrest and/or kill those suspected of sympathizing with the SPLM.
Abstract: Most of the world’s 27.5 million internally displaced people
(IDPs) live in protracted displacement. These are
situations where the process for finding durable solutions
is stalled, and/or where IDPs are marginalised
as a consequence of violations or a lack of protection
of their human rights, including economic, social and
cultural rights.1 Solutions are absent or have failed and
IDPs remain disadvantaged and unable to fully enjoy
their rights.
The seminar brought together about 100 participants
from around the world, from a range of backgrounds
and organisations. They included representatives of
governments and civil society organisations in countries
with protracted internal displacement, international
humanitarian and development organisations (including
UN agencies) donors, research organisations, academics
and other experts. The Chatham House Rule was in
effect during the meeting to allow participants to speak
more freely.
The seminar focused on the experiences of six countries
with protracted internal displacement – Burundi,
Colombia, Georgia, Serbia, southern Sudan and Uganda.
For each country field research was commissioned and
the resulting case studies were distributed before the
seminar. Other background materials circulated to participants
included an overview of local integration of
IDPs in protracted displacement and reference materials
relating to durable solutions.
Abstract: The level of women’s participation in armed violence in Africa is determined by the nature and
typology of conflict. Using prior research as a data source, the article examines the nature of
women’s participation in on-going and recently-concluded armed conflicts in 15 countries in Africa.
Based upon data that show variations, and similarities in the contextual conditions under which
women become war participants, this article presents three kinds of wars, and the conditions that
distinguish them from one another, as a theoretical framework in analysing women’s involvement in
Africa’s armed conflicts. The findings show that in ‘resources/opportunistic’ driven wars, women’s
participation is higher and more complex when compared to ‘ethno-religious’ and
‘secessionist/autonomy’ driven wars. Moreover, this paper finds that women’s participation can be
active and passive; coerced and voluntary.
Abstract: As the people of Southern Sudan peacefully voted for secession from northern Sudan in
January 2011, closing the book on a brutal civil war, the people of Darfur struggled to survive
an armed conflict that now commands little international attention, despite renewed fighting
in Darfur. Darfur’s civilians continue to bear the brunt of clashes between Sudanese
government forces and the rebel Sudan Liberation Army (SLA), an eight-year- war that has
killed tens of thousands of people and displaced two million more.
The renewed fighting since December 2010, recalling earlier years of Darfur’s conflict, has
resulted in scores of civilian casualties, destruction and looting of property, and the
displacement of up to 70,000 people. It also brought familiar patterns of killings, sexual
violence, and arbitrary arrests by Sudanese state security forces against Darfuri civilians,
often based on ethnicity. The extent of human suffering is still not known, as the government
continues to restrict access to much of Darfur by United Nations/African Union Mission in
Darfur (UNAMID) peacekeepers and humanitarian aid organizations.
This report exposes the human dimension of increased fighting in Darfur over the past six
months and ongoing repression of civil and political rights of Darfuris. It documents the
impact of government-led ground and air attacks on civilians connected to the resumption of
fighting, and other abuses by government security forces and allied militia. It also describes
the failure of the government to provide accountability for any of these abuses.
