Today security issues are no longer simply state- and military-centric issues. This report thus aims to analyse the background factors behind violent conflicts in the Black Sea region. Many critical security studies have noted that the so-called billiard-ball model with simple causal relationships does not work in international politics (Booth 2004). Processes leading to conflicts are today more or less complex and multilayered (see e.g. Ohmae 1999, Buzan et al. 2007). The challenge of this report is to identify key drivers, which can potentially increase the probability of violent conflict. We shall also identify those trends, which have the biggest impact on violent conflict.
As typical with foresight research, foresight contributes to public decision-making and informs policy by providing systematic knowledge about relevant trends and developments in various environments.
Foresight can provide useful information and knowledge for public policymaking at three distinct levels.
Firstly, the results of foresight can be utilised in the field of intelligence work, where the aim is to gather systematic foreknowledge of changes in trends and potential new emerging issues and risks that should be addressed in public policy and strategies. Secondly, foresight results can be used in the field of enhancing reflective mutual social learning processes among policy makers. Thirdly, the diagnosis and insights of foresight processes can help the public decision-makers to formulate better informed and better prepared future visions and grand strategies of politics (Habegger 2010, 49–50, Kuosa 2012, 137–138). Almost needless to say, also international agencies, NGOs and governments can use foresight analyses in various contexts of international politics.