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Abstract: Background
Nepal is one of the post-conflict countries affected by violence from explosive devices. We undertook this study to assess the magnitude of injuries due to intentional explosions in Nepal during 2008-2011 and to describe time trends and epidemiologic patterns for these events.
Methods
We analyzed surveillance data on fatal and non-fatal injuries due to intentional explosions in Nepal that occurred between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2011. The case definition included casualties injured or killed by explosive devices knowingly activated by an individual or a group of individuals with the intent to harm, hurt or terrorize. Data were collected through media-based and active community-based surveillance.
Results
Analysis included 437 casualties injured or killed in 131 intentional explosion incidents. A decrease in the number of incidents and casualties between January 2008 and June 2009 was followed by a pronounced increase between July 2010 and June 2011. Eighty-four (19.2%) casualties were among females and 40 (9.2%) were among children under 18 years of age. Fifty-nine (45.3%) incidents involved one casualty, 47 (35.9%) involved 2 to 4 casualties, and 6 involved more than 10 casualties. The overall case-fatality ratio was 7.8%. The highest numbers of incidents occurred in streets or at crossroads, in victims' homes, and in shops or markets. Incidents on buses and near stadiums claimed the highest numbers of casualties per incident. Socket, sutali, and pressure cooker bombs caused the highest numbers of incidents.
Conclusions
Intentional explosion incidents still pose a threat to the civilian population of Nepal. Most incidents are caused by small homemade explosive devices and occur in public places, and males aged 20 to 39 account for a plurality of casualties. Stakeholders addressing the explosive device problem in Nepal should continue to use surveillance data to plan interventions.
Abstract: This is a transcript of an event held at Chatham House on 12 March 2013.
The panel discussed the international community's role in supporting Afghanistan after the 2014 withdrawal of international troops, including strategies for building up local security, the possibility of reconciliation with the Taliban, and how to address ongoing humanitarian needs in the country.
Speakers included: Dr Robert Johnson, Jawed Nader, Matt Waldman.
Abstract: This paper provides an overview of current research and practice of governance evaluation
covering three topics: electoral accountability, corruption, and multidimensional peacekeeping.
It illustrates how previous evaluation challenges have been tackled using state-of-the-art
methodologies, and how these methods are recently being used to explore causal mechanisms.
This paper argues that evaluating interventions is necessary in order to advance our
knowledge of governance, but that studies that test theories and assumptions, explain causes
and consequences, and tackle measurement problems are equally important, especially for donor
programming. By reviewing a range of ongoing and published evaluation and research
studies, this paper extracts lessons for governance policy and for practice of governance evaluation.
Abstract: This paper analyses Nigeria’s role in the African Union (AU) and con-cludes that the latter is a strategic platform for the conduct of Nigeria’s foreign policy objectives in Africa. The study finds that the country has a ‘manifest destiny’ to play leadership roles in Africa and debunks the perception that Nigeria’s role in the AU is in decline. The paper further explores Nigeria’s AU priorities since the Arab revolts and concludes that the country’s ability to steer a clear course at the AU holds out pro-spects for peace, stability and security in Africa.
Abstract: This is a transcript of an event held at Chatham House on 20 February 2013.
The panel dicussed the current peace talks between the government of the DRC and the M23 rebel group, lessons learned from the international community's past failures to stem conflict in the country and the options available for outside parties to bring about a lasting solution.
Abstract: In this brief the author examines the UN’s primary roadmap for operationalizing its women, peace and security agenda: the 2010 Seven-Point Action Plan on Gender-Responsive Peacebuilding. He points out that despite the Action Plan’s endorsement by the Secretary-General and his senior leadership team, implementation has been extremely disappointing. He also suggests strategies with which member states can help to strengthen the agenda implementation.
Abstract: Learning From Iraq: A Final Report From the Special Inspector General
for Iraq Reconstruction culminates SIGIR’s nine-year mission
overseeing Iraq’s reconstruction. It serves as a follow-up to our previous
comprehensive review of the rebuilding effort, Hard Lessons: The Iraq
Reconstruction Experience.
This study provides much more than a recapitulation of what the
reconstruction program accomplished and what my office found in
the interstices. While examining both of these issues and many more,
Learning From Iraq importantly captures the effects of the rebuilding
program as derived from 44 interviews with the recipients (the Iraqi
leadership), the executors (U.S. senior leaders), and the providers
(congressional members). These interviews piece together an instructive
picture of what was the largest stabilization and reconstruction
operation ever undertaken by the United States (until recently
overtaken by Afghanistan).
The body of this report reveals countless details about the use
of more than $60 billion in taxpayer dollars to support programs
and projects in Iraq. It articulates numerous lessons derived from
SIGIR’s 220 audits and 170 inspections, and it lists the varying
consequences meted out from the 82 convictions achieved through our
investigations. It urges and substantiates necessary reforms that could
improve stabilization and reconstruction operations, and it highlights
the financial benefits accomplished by SIGIR’s work: more than
$1.61 billion from audits and over $191 million from investigations.
Abstract: This article is a rejoinder to Roger Mac Ginty's polemic (Against Stabilization) arguing that, whilst the author is correct in identifying the inconsistencies in the concept and practice of stabilization, it is a viable concept. This article draws on field research from Afghanistan and Nepal to demonstrate that within stabilization's philosophical pedigree and practical application are components that can articulate a form of sub-national international intervention that can address political threats. Further this form of intervention is morally defensible and can promote control rather than constrict it. Stabilization is a new term that has been applied to many old practices, but it has been inconsistently used suggesting that it is both a practice for national level interventions and those directed at a sub-national level. This has been unhelpful as it confuses stabilization activity with other forms of intervention. The article explores the threats that stabilization can address, the stability that is being sought after and the manner in which interventions can be approached in order to address the threats. It suggests there is a space in which stabilization can operate, pragmatically engaging in the complexities of political conflict in states under extreme tension.
Abstract: CIMA announces the release of a special report, You Say You Want a Revolution … Then What?, a first-person account by veteran journalist and media trainer Carolyn Robinson of her experiences training broadcast journalists in Libya after the death of leader Moammar Qaddafi. Robinson outlines some of the unusual obstacles and challenges she faced in managing two USAID/OTI grants in Libya for Internews in the very early days after the revolution, and how her team came up with novel approaches to overcome the special circumstances they faced on the ground. Her essay is not so much about what can and should be done for media development in Libya today, but about how to structure training in chaotic post-conflict environments.
Abstract: Almost two years after the end of the post-electoral crisis which resulted in almost 3,000
deaths, Côte d’Ivoire continues to be home to serious human rights violations committed
against known or suspected supporters of former President Laurent Gbagbo. These violations
were committed in response to an increase in armed attacks on military and strategic
objectives which have created a climate of general insecurity.
The Forces républicaines de Côte d’Ivoire (FRCI, Republican Forces of Côte d'Ivoire, the
national army) and the military police were responsible for numerous human rights violations
after arresting and detaining individuals outside any legal framework and often on the base of
ethnic and political motivations. These exactions were made possible by the multiplication of
places of detention not recognized as such where individuals suspected of attempts against
state security were held incommunicado, sometimes for long periods, and in inhumane and
degrading conditions. Many were tortured and some have been released against payment of a
ransom.
Amnesty International is extremely concerned by this failure to comply with essential
safeguards in the protection of prisoners and by the fact that the entire judicial process
seems to be running contrary to the fundamental norms of international law and Ivorian
legislation (denial of access to a lawyer, false statements dictated by interrogating soldiers
and, in particular, "confessions" extracted under torture).
Abstract: France's intervention in Mali has so far succeeded, but expelling Islamist militants was the easy part. Now Paris must turn its tactical achievements into a lasting victory -- which will require a light but enduring presence in the country.
Abstract: Local Faith Communities (LFCs) are groupings of religious actors bonded through shared allegiance to institutions, beliefs, history or identity. They engage in a range of activities across the humanitarian spectrum. Resilience – defined as the ability to anticipate, withstand and bounce back from external pressures and shocks – is increasingly a central construct in the shaping of humanitarian strategy by the international community.
Faith groups are often central to strengthening resilience and reinforcing the local processes of identity and connection that comprise the social fabric of communities disrupted by disaster or conflict. There is increasing recognition of LFCs’ roles by the mainstream humanitarian community, as evidenced by emerging research and international dialogues on faith, such as the UNHCR Dialogue on Faith and Protection in December 2012. However there are a number of challenges to establishing partnerships with LFCs.
This Joint Learning Initiative (JLI) on Faith and Local Communities is seeking to understand the role of LFCs in strengthening resilience, and to address three challenges to full engagement with LFCs: a lack of evidence regarding the impact of LFCs on individual and community resilience; a lack of trust, knowledge and capacity for such engagement; and the need for clear, implementable actions to improve partnership and the effectiveness of humanitarian response.
This scoping document investigates the evidence for LFC contribution to resilience under the guidance of the JLI Resilience Learning Hub, membership of which is made up of 20 practitioners, academics and policymakers expert in humanitarian services and faith communities.
Abstract: In the context of the impending NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan, a regional roundtable held in Berlin last year discussed the potential for future European commitments to UN peacekeeping. The meeting, which took place October 24-25, 2012, was the second roundtable of the IPI-Pearson Centre Being a Peacekeeper series. It was hosted by the Center for International Peace Operations (ZIF), with the support of the Directorate for Strategic Affairs of the French Ministry of Defense and the Federal Foreign Office of Germany.
This meeting note is a summary of the key themes that emerged during the discussions. It analyzes the current strategic security context, the evolution and reform of UN peacekeeping, the obstacles to increasing European contributions, and future partnership opportunities. The report concludes with 13 recommendations on strategic outreach, confidence building, and institutional reform.
Abstract: The more one looks at Afghanistan today, the more likely it seems that Transition will at best produce a weak and divided state and at worst a state that either continues its civil war or comes under Taliban and extremist control. More than a decade of Western intervention has not produced a strong and viable central government, an economy that can function without massive outside aid, or effective Afghan forces. There are no signs that insurgents are being pushed towards defeat or will lose their sanctuaries in Pakistan, and outside aid efforts have generally produced limited benefits – many of which will not be sustainable once Transition occurs and aid levels are cut.
There has also been a steady erosion of outside support for the war – first in Europe and increasingly in the US, where some 60% of Americans no longer see a prospect of victory or any reasons to stay. While governments talk about enduring efforts, each time the US and its allies have reviewed their Afghan policy since 2010, their future level of commitment has seemed to shrink and more uncertainties have arisen.
Abstract: As Yemenis sit down to their long-delayed national dialogue, they face an array of challenges that threaten to pull the country apart – from an unfinished revolution to regional demands for independence. Can Yemen grapple with its legacy of dictatorship and violence and prevent another slide into civil conflict?
In a new paper from the Brookings Doha Center, A Lasting Peace: Yemen’s Long Journey to National Reconciliation, Ibrahim Sharqieh outlines a process of national reconciliation that is Yemen’s best hope for stability.
Based on extensive field research and interviews with key Yemeni figures, Sharqieh describes the challenges facing post-revolutionary Yemen and the key actors in the country’s national reconciliation, from the Islamist Islah Party to the country’s tribes. He also lays out the mechanisms for a successful reconciliation process, discussing not only the country’s nascent national dialogue but also the sort of transitional justice bodies that must follow it. Finally, he concludes with how the international community can help Yemen achieve reconciliation – and warns against regional and international powers acting as spoilers.
Abstract: Human Security Research is a monthly compilation of significant new human security-related research published by academics, university research institutes, think-tanks, international agencies, and NGOs.
HUMANITARIAN AID: Aid Worker Security Report 2012: Host States and Their Impact on Security for Humanitarian Operations
MEXICO: The Impact of President Felipe Calderón’s War on Drugs on the Armed Forces: The Prospects for Mexico’s “Militarization” and Bilateral Relations
POLITICAL MISSIONS: Political Missions 2012
RADICALIZATION: Countering Radicalization in Europe
SEXUAL VIOLENCE AND CONFLICT: In the Face of War: Examining Sexual Vulnerabilities of Acholi Adolescent Girls Living in Displacement Camps in Conflict-affected Northern Uganda
GENDER: From Clause to Effect: Including Women's Rights and Gender in Peace Agreements
KYRGYZSTAN: Averting Violence in Kyrgyzstan: Understanding and Responding to Nationalism
LRA: Getting Back on Track: Implementing the UN Regional Strategy on the Lord's Resistance Army
TERRORISM: Global Terrorism Index 2012: Capturing the Impact of Terrorism from 2002-2011
WEAPONRY: Losing Humanity: The Case Against Killer Robots
MEDIA: Working in Concert: Coordination and Collaboration in International Media Development
PAKISTAN: Pakistan on the Edge
Abstract: How should the various institutions responsible for human security be reconstructed in African states faced with violent conflict? This IDS Bulletin argues that international efforts to date have focused too much on central government and too little on local 'foundation blocks' of governance and order.
Abstract: What evolution and underlying trends influence the future of humanitarian action and its ability to respond to the crises of tomorrow? Since the end of the Cold War, humanitarian activity has grown exponentially to the point that, given the development of such organizations in number, weight, and professionalization, it is now possible to speak of a ‘humanitarian sector’ or an ‘industry’.1 Polymorphic and complex, this sector is composed of different systems or ‘networks of networks’ with no central governance. We see three main components to this sector today: non-governmental organizations of extremely diverse size and missions, the United Nations humanitarian agencies, and finally, the components of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement. The largest of these organizations, whose headquarters are all in the Western world, manage large and constantly increasing budgets, and exercise an influence that, while fluid, is nonetheless real and one of a truly international civil society.
Abstract: The report provides a birds-eye view on how rule of law assistance has evolved over time, the volume of rule of law assistance, what areas or sectors receive the most assistance, the methods employed for implementation, and differences between peacekeeping and peace-building missions.
There have been many positive developments in the UN’s rule of law system over the past decade both in terms of policy and learning from, and adjusting to, practical experience and competencies gained on the ground.
Despite these encouraging changes, when the UN’s rule of law assistance in Africa is examined as a whole certain questions arise on the organisation’s flexibility with regard to post-conflict reality, the ability to provide a context-adjusted response, and the coherence and use of policy and practical guidance. If these questions are carefully and properly considered, they can inform and inspire debate and discussion on the UN’s commitment to the rule of law, enhance and extend good practices, innovations and accumulated experience in order to bridge critical capacity-gaps and encompass a broader range of rule of law areas.
Abstract: This issue brief provides a view from the Sahel on the current threats to peace and
security in the region. As part of its project on peace and security in the Sahel-
Sahara region, IPI’s Africa Program has partnered with the Mauritania-based
think tank, the Centre for Strategies for Security in the Sahel Sahara Region. The
Centre 4S was established in June 2011 to help countries in the Sahel take the lead
in transforming the region’s daunting security and development challenges into
opportunities.Originally written in French, this June 2012 research paper from
the Centre 4S examines the principal threats to peace and security in the Sahel
and their impact on development. It then offers proposals and recommendations
for surmounting the current conflicts before presenting possible future scenarios
for the region.
Abstract: Peacebuilding – understood as a broad range of activities to solidify peace and avoid the relapse into violent conflict – has become central to the self-conception of the EU as a foreign policy actor. The concept has been making inroads into different EU policy areas such as security and defence, development cooperation, enlargement and the European Neighbourhood Policy. At the same time, the dominant approach to peace-building has increasingly come under fire because of its failure to produce durable peace in many countries. The European Union has reacted to these challenges by adapt-ing its concepts, but translation of these into practice – as currently witnessed in the Sahel and the two Sudans – is proving more difficult.
Abstract: Afghan and Iraqi women leaders met earlier this year to discuss how women in North African transition countries can play a role in reshaping their societies. Based on their own experiences with transition, these leaders offered advice on what to do and what pitfalls to avoid.
Abstract: As the presence of Western states in UN
peacekeeping operations (PKOs) has gradually
decreased, new states have been filling the
resultant void, although these operations remain
wedded to Western ideas and standards of
how such interventions should be carried out.
However, as emerging powers like Brazil are now
taking the lead on the ground, the question that
this report seeks to shed light on is how this is
starting to affect the way in which the UN carries
out its PKOs. It assesses the Brazilian military
lead in MINUSTAH in Haiti against the backdrop
of the so-called “pacification” strategy currently
employed in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro. It
shows that rather than being a “transmission
belt” for a traditional Western model of military
intervention, Brazil’s lead in MINUSTAH has had
an added value, building on Brazilian experience
with urban conflict, which is an area with which
the UN and Western states are unfamiliar. In fact,
several states, including the U.S., have started
to look to Brazil when developing and adapting
concepts for urban and anti-crime operations.
This shows that as Brazil has become a more
active participant in UN PKOs, it has also
gradually begun to set the agenda for how the
UN runs such operations.
Abstract: Since Bosco Ntaganda’s mutiny in April 2012 and the subsequent
creation of the 23 March rebel movement (M23),
violence has returned to the Kivus. However today’s crisis
bears the same hallmarks as yesterday’s, a consequence
of the failure to implement the 2008 framework for resolution
of the conflict. Rather than effectively implementing
the 23 March 2009 peace agreement signed by the government
and the CNDP (National Council for the Defence
of the People), the Congolese authorities have instead only
feigned the integration of the CNDP into political institutions,
and likewise the group appears to have only pretended
to integrate into the Congolese army. Furthermore in
the absence of the agreed army reform, military pressure
on armed groups had only a temporary effect and, moreover,
post-conflict reconstruction has not been accompanied
by essential governance reforms and political dialogue.
To move away from crisis management and truly
resolve this two-decade-old conflict, donors should put
pressure on both Kigali and Kinshasa.
Abstract: What happens to countries after civil war or other conflict comes to an end? This paper shows that post-war economies can experience a peace dividend involving higher than average growth rates, and that aid can increase this dividend. Since post-war countries face the twin challenges of avoiding further conflict and rebuilding their economies, enhancing the peace dividend is a high priority. While there is evidence that this peace dividend can be increased through aid it is not well understood why this may be the case. The paper considers policy reform and particular types of aid but finds no evidence that they hold the key to understanding why aid increases post-war growth. To prevent such countries reverting into conflict, there are distinct policies that post-war governments should pursue in the short term: high aid, low taxation, independent public service delivery and low inflation. Post-war societies face enormous needs while having very limited revenue. Aid should fill the gap in the short run, but in the long run aid dependence can be avoided by phasing in a cap on aid. This cap should be relative to tax revenue.
