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Abstract: After a decade of separatist violence in Thailand’s Malay/Muslim-majority southern provinces, insurgent capabilities are outpacing state counter-measures that are mired in complacency and political conflict. While Bangkok claims to make a virtue of patience, more sophisticated and brutal insurgent attacks increase the death toll. Successive governments have opted to muddle through South East Asia’s most violent internal conflict, their responses hostage to outmoded conceptions of the state, bureaucratic turf battles and a bitter national-level political struggle. In 2012, a new security policy for the region acknowledged for the first time the conflict’s political nature and identified decentralisation and dialogue with militants as components of a resolution. But fulfilling this policy demands that Thai leaders depoliticise the South issue, engage with civil society, build a consensus on devolving political power and accelerate efforts toward dialogue. Dialogue and decentralisation may be difficult for Bangkok to implement, but the necessary changes could become even more challenging over time.
The intractable power struggle between supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, deposed in a 2006 coup d’état, and his opponents in the army, bureaucracy and palace has overshadowed the conflict in the South. Yet, the region remains another arena for political gamesmanship. Civilian officials there and in Bangkok have been hamstrung by the need to respect military prerogatives and have searched in vain for a formula that can tamp down the violence without committing to political reforms. Deployment of some 60,000 security forces, special security laws and billions of dollars have not achieved any appreciable decline in casualties or curbed the movement.
Abstract: In conflicts around the world, schools, students, and teachers are under attack. When schools are destroyed or students and teachers are threatened, children often drop out of school and don't come back. Other continue amid violence and fear. Sometimes lives are lost; education is always a casualty.
This audio-visual resource contains an India case study, a Thailand case study, and a list of written resources on education during conflict.
Abstract: On September 17, the Truth for Reconciliation Commission of Thailand (TRCT) released its final report on the April-May 2010 political violence triggered by protests by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), also known “red shirts.” Those protests devolved into violence, killing 92 and injuring upward of 2,000 individuals. The TRCT, established by the Abhisit Vejjajiva government and supported by current prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, was mandated to investigate and determine the root causes of the 2010 political violence and to provide recommendations for reducing future conflict and promoting reconciliation.
Abstract: Despite decades of experience with hosting millions of refugees, Thailand’s refugee
policies remain fragmented, unpredictable, inadequate and ad hoc, leaving refugees
unnecessarily vulnerable to arbitrary and abusive treatment. Thailand is not a party to the
1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (1951 Refugee Convention) or its 1967
Protocol. It has no refugee law or formalized asylum procedures. The lack of a legal
framework leaves refugees and asylum seekers in a precarious state, making their stay in
Thailand uncertain and their status unclear.
Burmese refugees in Thailand face a stark choice: they can stay in one of the refugee
camps along the border with Burma and be relatively protected from arrest and summary
removal to Burma but without freedom to move or work. Or, they can live and work outside
the camps, but typically without recognized legal status of any kind, leaving them at risk of
arrest and deportation. It is a choice refugees should not be compelled to make. Many of
those who decide to live in the camps do so without being formally registered or
recognized. And many of those living outside the camps find the process of applying for
and gaining migrant worker status to be prohibitively expensive and out of reach, leaving
them vulnerable to exploitation, arrest, and deportation.
Abstract: "The Search: Protection Space in Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, The Philippines and Cambodia" in Practice is a practical guide which will assist other advocates to give accurate information to asylum seekers and refugees about the realities of protection space within the region.
In Southeast Asia, where only three countries, Cambodia, the Philippines and Timor Leste, are signatories to the UN refugee convention the challenges of living in an urban setting are amplified on a daily basis as people struggle to make a living, avoid detention, send their children to school and tend to their medical needs.
This guide covers five broad themes: protection concerns, convention obligations and domestic legal frameworks, refugee-status determination, durable solutions, and finally an outline of the realities of living in the region in relation to employment, education, healthcare and housing. Given the range of challenges, it is essential that those that work with asylum seekers and refugees know as much as possible about the asylum options available in urban areas in the capital cities of Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila and Phnom Penh.
The focus of this research has been to emphasise the experience of asylum seekers and refugees, to let them tell their own stories, while at the same time compile the relevant contextual information that presents a broad picture of the current situation in Southeast Asia.
The asylum seekers and refugees who have willingly shared their stories, opened up their homes and lives for the purpose of this guide have done so in the hope that it may ultimately help others on the same journey: the search for protection.
Abstract: This NTS Alert examines the implications of Myanmar's recent reforms for its neighbours - China, India, Thailand and Bangladesh. Issues of major concern to the four countries include energy, humanitarian consequences and other non-traditional insecurities resulting from Myanmar's internal challenges. The recent reforms, which advance democracy and national reconciliation, are seen to address these long-standing issues and are universally encouraged by Myanmar's neighbours. Nevertheless, they represent just small steps forward, and more efforts are needed to achieve national reconciliation.
Abstract: Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia that caused dozens of casualties and displaced thousands have challenged the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to finally turn its rhetoric on peace and security into action. Cambodia’s successful attempt to list the Preah Vihear temple as a World Heritage Site came against the backdrop of turmoil in Thai politics after the 2006 coup that deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thai pro-establishment movements used this issue to whip up nationalist sentiments against Cambodia as they tried to topple the Thaksin-backed government. The emotionally-charged campaigns halted border demarcation and sparked a bilateral conflict. In early 2011, the dispute turned into the most violent clash yet between ASEAN’s members, testing its historical commitment to non-aggression and prompting it to get involved. This has raised expectations that it might live up to its stated aspiration to keep peace in its own region. As yet, however, while its engagement set important precedents, it has no significant achievements. More robust diplomacy and leadership are still needed.
Abstract: Since 2004, there has been a resurgence of violence in Thailand’s southern provinces of Pattani, Yala
and Narathiwat, where the government is facing the violent opposition of a number of Malay Muslim
insurgency groups. Close to 5,000 people have been killed and nearly 8,000 injured. Buddhists, estimated
to represent around 20 per cent of the total population of the three provinces in 2000, have
been disproportionately affected by the violence; they account for nearly 40 per cent of all deaths
and more than 60 per cent of all injured. Civilians from both communities are the main victims of the
violence. As a result, many have since 2004 fled their homes and moved to safer areas.
Buddhist civilians targeted by the insurgents because of their real or perceived association with
the Thai state have fled their homes in large numbers, either seeking refuge in nearby urban areas
or leaving the three provinces altogether. Some people who have been unable or unwilling to flee the violence have joined armed militias. The
government, which has since 2004 increasingly relied on paramilitary groups to fight the insurgency,
has strongly encouraged civilians to defend the “Thai homeland”. It has selectively provided training
and arms to Buddhists and also given financial incentives to encourage government employees to
stay. While probably stemming the exodus of Buddhists, this policy has resulted in an increased ethno-
religious polarisation and has heightened risk of incidents and abuses between both communities.
This briefing discusses the roots and context of the current conflict in Thailand's south, as well as the patterns of violence and patterns of displacement. It highlights the needs of IDPs and reviews the national and international response - or lack thereof - to the displacement.
Abstract: The nature and extent of the jihadist threat in Southeast Asia was not fully understood until well after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. In the aftermath of those attacks, states in Southeast Asia appeared to move quickly to quash the putative threats in their own countries. Both the Singaporean and Malaysian authorities, for example, detained a number of suspected Islamist militants in late 2001. Nevertheless, official and academic opinion remained for at least another year largely indifferent to the transnational terrorist network that had established itself in Southeast Asia. This indifference and neglect was all the more surprising given the often intrusive intelligence agencies in many Southeast Asian countries. However, these too apparently failed to identify the evolving threat in their midst and the growing danger jihadism posed to regional order. The October 2002 nightclub bombings in Bali, Indonesia, which killed 202 people, changed all of this. Those attacks brought to the world's attention the existence of a sophisticated, regionally-networked web of jihadist activity in Southeast Asia.
Prior to 9/11, regional intelligence cooperation was poor, and there was little awareness of or attention paid to the character and evolution of regional crime and terror networks. In particular, there existed a collective nescience concerning the growing ideological links between the most militant jihadist grouping in Southeast Asia, Jemaah Islamiah [JI], and the globalizing network of networks of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda. One objective of this essay, therefore, is to indicate the process by which al-Qaeda and its regional affiliates attempted to draw localized separatist struggles in Southeast Asia into an evolving but loose network of transnational jihadism. To illustrate how this structure has advanced, we shall show how JI developed through kin groups, marital alliances, cliques, and radical pesantren [religious schools]. Furthermore, we will examine the mix of counterterror strategies that have since 2003 successfully disrupted the organization and its network.
Exploring this evolving, networked organization in Southeast Asia also helps to illustrate a broader point about the character of modern jihadism. Long before it was appropriate to speak of an entity called al-Qaeda or the emergence of Osama bin Laden as its figurehead, those inspired by an Islamist, theo-political vision were already thinking strategically in terms of regional and transnational operations and their political effects. In Southeast Asia, we can trace this vision, if not also the strategy, back to the Darul Islam, or "Islamic Realm," movement.
Abstract: Insurgents in the long-running internal armed conflict in southern Thailand must immediately stop their campaign of targeting civilians, Amnesty International urged today in a new report.
“They took nothing but his life”: Unlawful killings in Thailand’s southern insurgency provides details of how insurgents have deliberately attacked “soft targets”: farmers, teachers, students, religious leaders, and civil servants. Many of these attacks constitute war crimes.
Nearly 5,000 people have been killed and thousands more injured in Thailand’s four southern-most provinces, in the nearly eight years since the insurgency there reignited.
“Insurgents in southern Thailand are spreading terror among the civilian population by deliberately targeting people with no role in the conflict —no one is immune from attack,” said Donna Guest, Amnesty International’s Asia-Pacific Deputy Director.
“The insurgents must publicly commit to stopping these unlawful killings immediately,” she said.
The report is based on the testimony of 154 interviews with witnesses and survivors, relatives and friends of victims, conducted between October 2010 and July 2011. This testimony provides information about 66 insurgent attacks against civilians in three southern Thai districts: Rangae in Narathiwat province, Yarang in Pattani, and Yaha in Yala.
Abstract: This report is the culmination of a six-month project commissioned
by the Women’s Refugee Commission and co-funded by the United
Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to address the
rights and needs of displaced persons with disabilities, with a
particular focus on women (including older women), children and
youth. Based on field research in five refugee situations, as well as
global desk research, the Women’s Refugee Commission sought to
map existing services for displaced persons with disabilities, identify
gaps and good practices and make recommendations on how to
improve services, protection and participation for displaced persons
with disabilities. The objective of the project was to gather initial
empirical data and produce a Resource Kit that would be of
practical use to UN and nongovernmental organization (NGO) field
staff working with displaced persons with disabilities.
Abstract: This paper is a gendered analysis of peacebuilding capacity in the context of forced migration. Scholars have tended to focus primarily on potential threats from conflict-generated diasporas1 rather than on how they contribute to peace processes in their homelands. Understanding how the millions of refugees affected by armed conflicts may, as non-state actors, help to facilitate peace making and peace building not only addresses some of the needs of refugees, but develops new policy and practices necessary to address contemporary ethno-political conflict. This study of women from Burma in exile reinforces the need to implement UNSCR 1325 in a way that strengthens the peace capacity of diaspora women‟s organizations in host countries as well as those at home.
Abstract: Thailand will hold a long-awaited federal election on July 3, pitting the governing Democrat Party against the opposition Puea Thai party, as well as a group of smaller parties. For some Thai politicians, this poll will be the culmination of a process of national reconciliation that began in the wake of bloody riots in Bangkok last April and May, during which at least eighty people were killed, hundreds were injured, and an unknown numbers of protestors were taken into police custody, often without charges filed.
But the election could simply accelerate Thailand's political meltdown, underway since a coup in September 2006 deposed then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who fled into exile. Most likely, the poll will not resolve the increasingly deep divisions in Thai society--between the rural poor who have backed Thaksin and the urban middle classes; between archroyalist supporters of the Thai monarchy and those who would like a real constitutional monarchy; and between residents of the north and northeast of Thailand and residents of Bangkok and the south.
Instead, any of the plausible poll scenarios--an opposition victory nullified by another coup, or a Democrat win put together through backroom coalition building--is likely to inflame segments of Thailand, causing more unrest in what was once one of the most stable countries in Asia.
Abstract: This report provides the most detailed account yet of violence and human rights abuses by both sides during and after massive protests in Bangkok and other parts of Thailand in 2010. The report is based on 94 interviews with victims, witnesses, protesters, academics, journalists, lawyers, human rights defenders, parliament members, government officials, security personnel, police, and those who directly took part in various stages of the violence from both the government and the protester sides. It documents deadly attacks by government security forces on protesters in key incidents and details abuses by armed elements, known as “Black Shirts,” associated with the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD). The report also explains the background to the political crisis that led to the protests and continues to the present.
Abstract: Malaysia has taken significant steps forward in improving refugee rights. In the past year, there have been no reported attempts to deport Burmese refugees to the border with Thailand and a decrease in immigration raids and arrests of registered refugees. But these advances have not yet been codified into written government policy, leaving refugees considered
“illegal migrants” and subject to arrest and detention. The Government of Malaysia should build on this progress by setting up a system of residence and work permits for refugees. The international community should mobilize additional funds for the UN Refugee Agency
(UNHCR) and non-governmental agencies to leverage this opportunity to improve refugee rights.
Abstract: Nearly a year after the crackdown on anti-establishment
demonstrations, Thailand is preparing for a general election.
Despite government efforts to suppress the Red Shirt movement,
support remains strong and the deep political divide
has not gone away. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s roadmap
for reconciliation has led almost nowhere. Although
there have been amateurish bomb attacks carried out by
angry Red Shirts since the crackdown, fears of an underground
battle have not materialised. On the other side, the
Yellow Shirts have stepped up their nationalist campaigns
against the Democrat Party-led government that their earlier
rallies had helped bring to power. They are now claiming
elections are useless in “dirty” politics and urging Thais to
refuse to vote for any of the political parties. Even if the
elections are free, fair and peaceful, it will still be a challenge
for all sides to accept the results. If another coalition is
pushed together under pressure from the royalist establishment,
it will be a rallying cry for renewed mass protests
by the Red Shirts that could plunge Thailand into more
violent confrontation.
The Red Shirt demonstrations in March-May 2010 sparked
the most deadly clashes between protestors and the state in
modern Thai history and killed 92 people. The use of
force by the government may have weakened the Red Shirts
but the movement has not been dismantled and is still
supported by millions of people, particularly in the North
and North East. Arresting their leaders as well as shutting
down their media and channels of communication has only
reinforced their sense of injustice. Some in the movement’s
hardline fringe have chosen to retaliate with violence but
the leadership has reaffirmed its commitment to peaceful
political struggle. The next battle will be waged through
ballot boxes and the Red Shirts will throw their weight
behind their electoral wing, the Pheu Thai Party.
Abstract: The eruption of conflict between the Burmese military and an ethnic rebel faction in
eastern Burma has forced over 30,000 people to flee to Thailand since November 2010. Skirmishes are ongoing and both parties have planted landmines in people’s villages and farmlands. While the Thai government has a long-standing policy of providing refuge for “those fleeing fighting,” the Thai army is pressuring Burmese to return prematurely and
restricting aid agencies. Unless the Thai Government strengthens its policy to protect those fleeing fighting and persecution, current and future refugees will have no choice but to join the ranks of millions of undocumented and unprotected migrant workers in Thailand.
Abstract: For more than a century Thailand’s southern border provinces have witnessed a separatist movement embedded in religious,
ethnic, linguistic, cultural, and historical identities. The armed groups have targeted government
officials, ethnic Thai Buddhist civilians and monks, and local Muslims suspected of collaborating
with Thai government authorities. The government of Thailand has responded to the violence with
force, often disregarding basic human rights. Estimates by human rights organisations indicate that the
violence has claimed over 4,000 lives since 2004. According to observers the level of violence has not
decreased for the past three years.
This report focuses on evidence of the association of boys under the age of 18 with Chor Ror Bor
(Village Defence Volunteers), one of the government-established village defence militias. Chor Ror
Bor is a national institution, but is particularly prevalent in southern Thailand, where it forms a part of
the government’s counter-insurgency efforts against armed opposition groups. Chor Ror Bor units
consisting of some 30 volunteers are present in nearly all, if not all, of the villages across the four
provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani, Songkhla and Yala.
This report addresses the recruitment and use of children in Chor Ror Bor. It also reflects briefly on
concerns relating to the administrative detention of children suspected of association with armed
opposition groups. The report contains detailed recommendations which could form the basis for a
more comprehensive governmental strategy to protect children affected by armed violence in southern
Thailand and which would - if implemented - significantly contribute to ensuring that Thailand’s
obligations under the international human rights law are upheld.
Abstract: Popular revolt continued to convulse the Arab world in February. The rapid spread and escalation of unrest underlined the magnitude of events, but their pace makes the direction of change uncertain.
After almost three weeks of massive protests Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak stepped down on 11 February. The Supreme Military Council took control and promised presidential and parliamentary elections within six months. On 22 February a new civilian cabinet was sworn in.
Just days after Mubarak's downfall protests broke out in Libya against Muammar Qaddafi's four-decade rule. Hundreds of civilians were feared killed and thousands injured as Qaddafi launched a brutal crackdown, prompting senior members of the regime and military to defect. By the end of the month Libya was in the throes of a full-scale rebellion, with large parts of the country under opposition control. The UN Security Council unanimously voted to impose sanctions and refer Libya to the International Criminal Court.
Protests intensified in Yemen, where dozens were killed in daily clashes between protesters and security forces from the middle of the month. Demonstrations for political reform in Bahrain also saw several protesters killed by security forces. Following international condemnation of the crackdown Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa ordered the withdrawal of security forces and offered dialogue with the opposition. In Afghanistan, the standoff continued between President Hamid Karzai and the opposition over the flawed September parliamentary election. A controversial special tribunal set up by Karzai - which the opposition condemns as unconstitutional - has started recounting votes in several provinces. Three Muscovite tourists were killed in a guerrilla attack on a North Caucasus ski resort, one of several attacks in the region's Kabardino-Balkaria Republic. The attack underlined the degree to which the previously relatively peaceful republic has become a target of Islamic guerrilla activity.
Conflict in Somalia escalated as government troops backed by AU peacekeepers battled against Islamic militant al-Shabaab in Mogadishu, and Ethiopian troops were reportedly involved in border clashes. In Somaliland, tensions increased in oil-rich Sool, Sanaag and Cayn region as government forces fought with rebel militia.
The collapse of a six-year ceasefire led to heightened tensions in Côte d'Ivoire and further warnings of an outbreak of civil war. The situation in Thailand also deteriorated as hostilities broke out along the border with Cambodia in the disputed area near Preah Vihear temple. Compromised elections in Uganda saw President Yoweri Museveni win a fourth term.
Abstract: Aung San Suu Kyi once famously said, “We must hope for the best, but prepare for the worst”. As this report is
being written the first elected government for 20 years is being formed in Burma following the November General
Election. The convening of parliament, new and more complex political structures plus the freedom of Aung San
Suu Kyi herself, all offer hope of reconciliation and change; of a more constructive relationship with the international
community, increasing humanitarian space and resolution of decades of conflict. For the troubled border areas where
there are hundreds of thousands of displaced people, the hope must be that it might lead to peace building and the
refugees eventually returning home.
However, all the early indications are that the General Election has done nothing to weaken military control over the
country. The former junta and its proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, have a stranglehold on
parliament with a Constitution that empowers the military to resume control whenever it considers national security is
under threat. There seems little likelihood that there will be major changes in the way the ethnic conflict is viewed, more
likely that a military, rather than political, solution will continue to be preferred. Ceasefire groups and non-ceasefire
groups will probably be forced to accept Burmese Army control or suffer the consequences. Ethnic aspirations have not
been addressed in the new constitution and the most likely scenario is ongoing conflict.
Abstract: Regarded as a “sideshow” to U.S. foreign policy interests during America’s Vietnam era, Cambodia has often been overshadowed in the region by its more economically influential Southeast Asian neighbors. Yet, its festering feud with Thailand over the Preah Vihear temple has once again flared up, claiming at least five lives. The ongoing standoff between the two ASEAN member states threatens a conflict that would be devastating to the UNESCO world heritage site and its surrounding communities. While the government of Cambodia has called on the UN to intervene, a sober assessment suggests that Cambodia and Thailand can take measures to deescalate tensions and prevent further erosion of the relations between the two countries.
Abstract: Amidst ongoing conflict between the Tatmadaw and armed groups in eastern Dooplaya and Pa’an
districts, civilians, aid workers and soldiers from state and non-state armies continue to report a variety of
human rights abuses and security concerns for civilians in areas adjacent to Thailand’s Tak Province,
including: functionally indiscriminate mortar and small arms fire; landmines; arbitrary arrest and detention;
sexual violence; and forced portering. Conflict and these conflict-related abuses have displaced
thousands of civilians, more than 8,000 of whom are currently taking refuge in discreet hiding places in
Thailand. This has interrupted education for thousands of children across eastern Dooplaya and Pa’an
districts. The agricultural cycle for farmers has also been severely disrupted; many villagers have been
prevented from completing their harvests of beans, corn and paddy crops, portending long-term threats to
food security. Due to concerns about food security and disruption to children’s education, as well as
villagers’ continuing need to protect themselves and their families from conflict and conflict-related abuse,
temporary but consistent access to refuge in Thailand remains vital until villagers feel safe to return
home. Even after return, food support will likely be necessary until disrupted agricultural activities can be
resumed and civilians can again support themselves.
Abstract: Civilians in Dooplaya and Pa'an districts continue to be impacted by conflict between the Tatmadaw and armed Karen groups, who have increased fighting since November 7th 2010. The situation remains highly unstable and civilians report a variety of human rights and security concerns related to ongoing conflict and conflict-related abuse. In order to provide as current information as possible on the fighting and related human rights and protection concerns, KHRG has developed this page as a 'Displacement Monitoring' section of the KHRG website. Immediate situation updates, news bulletins, field reports, maps and photo galleries regarding the situation for civilians in Dooplaya are accessible through links in the table at the bottom of this page.
Abstract: The SPDC Army continues to attack civilians and civilian livelihoods nearly two years after the end of the 2005-2008 SPDC Offensive in northern Karen State. In response, civilians have developed and employed various self-protection strategies that have enabled tens of thousands of villagers to survive with dignity and remain close to their homes despite the humanitarian consequences of SPDC Army practices. These protection strategies, however, have become strained, even insufficient, as humanitarian conditions worsen under sustained pressure from the SPDC Army, prompting some individual villagers and entire communities to re-assess local priorities and concerns, and respond with alternative strategies - including uses of weapons or landmines. While this complicates discussions of legal and humanitarian protections for at-risk civilians, uses of weapons by civilians occur amidst increasing constraints on alternative self-protection measures. External actors wishing to promote human rights in conflict areas of eastern Burma should therefore seek a detailed understanding of local priorities and dynamics of abuse, and use this understanding to inform activities that broaden civilians' range of feasible options for self-protection, including beyond uses of arms.
Abstract: Community-driven development (or CDD) projects are now a major component of World Bank assistance to many developing countries. While varying greatly in size and form, such projects aim to ensure that communities have substantive control in deciding how project funds should be used. Giving beneficiaries the power to manage project resources is believed by its proponents to lead to more efficient and effective fund use. It is also claimed that project-initiated participatory processes can have wider ‘spillover’ impacts, building local institutions and leadership, enhancing civic capacity, improving social relations and boosting state legitimacy.
This paper briefly reviews the World Bank’s experience of using CDD in conflict-affected and post-conflict areas of the East Asia and Pacific region. The region has been at the forefront of developing large-scale CDD programming including high profile ‘flagships’ such as the Kecamatan Development Program (KDP) in Indonesia and the Kapitbisig Laban Sa Kahirapan-Comprehensive and Integrated Delivery of Social Services (KALAHI-CIDSS) project in the Philippines.
How successful have such efforts been? Through what mechanisms have projects had impacts (or not)? And what factors—related to project design or to the context in which programs are operating—have affected performance? This paper provides a framework for assessing the impacts of CDD projects in post-conflict and conflict-affected areas. It tries to unpack the potential causal channels through which projects may have their desired, or other, impacts. It then looks at the evidence on whether and how projects have achieved these outcomes, focusing on a range of recent and current projects in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Timor-Leste. The analysis summarizes results, draws on comparative evidence from other projects in the region and elsewhere, and seeks to identify factors that explain variation in outcomes and project performance. The paper concludes with a short summary of what we know, what we don’t, and potential future directions for research and programming.
