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Abstract: Afghanistan's parliamentary elections, set for September 18, will be seen as a test of that country's stability nine years after the U.S.-led invasion, and three months before U.S. President Barack Obama reviews progress in the war effort. But if balloting is meant to serve as a litmus test for a military campaign that continues to sputter along, Afghanistan analyst Candace Rondeaux says the West should prepare for disappointment. For one, a surge in pre-election violence, coupled with a growing list of corrupt candidates, will discourage many Afghans from voting, Rondeaux says. Changes to the Afghan-run commission that investigates electoral fraud will also make a free and fair tally unlikely, she says. And while parliament has in recent months exhibited a willingness to challenge President Hamid Karzai on numerous issues, the corrupt lineup of candidates running this time makes it unlikely such independence will continue, she says.
Abstract: With the pullout of U.S. combat units completed, many Iraqis, even those who deplored the presence of foreign troops, are "fearful about what happens" if the U.S. withdraws completely next year as planned, says Jane Arraf, a long-time Baghdad correspondent who served as an Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow at CFR. Beyond concerns about whether Iraq will be able to defend itself when all U.S. troops have gone, there's also anxiety about the unsettled political situation. Arraf says Iraqis seem to be unable to forge a compromise between Ayad Allawi, the former prime minister, whose bloc had the most seats in last March's elections, and the current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. "We keep thinking that perhaps there's a lot going on beneath the surface, but apparently there isn't. It is what it is. It's stalled. There's talk about what to do, but nothing's been established yet."
Abstract: On 23 July 2010, the eve of the African Union’s Summit in
Kampala, AU Commission chairperson Jean Ping announced
that he had asked countries, including South Africa, Angola,
Nigeria, Ghana and Guinea, to send troops to Somalia to
boost the under-strength African Union Mission in Somalia
(AMISOM), currently comprising Ugandan and Burundian
forces. This move came against the background of suicide
bombing attacks on 11 July 2010 that had killed 79 people in
the Ugandan capital. Al-Shabaab, the militant Somali
organisation with undefined links to al-Qaeda, claimed
responsibility for the bombings, explaining that these were
retribution for Ugandan and Burundian violence against the
civilian population in Mogadishu. It would appear that the
bombings were also aimed at testing the endurance of Uganda
as a contributing country, as well as the resolve of other AU
member states that may be contemplating contributing
towards the required troop surge.
AMISOM was first deployed in 2007 to protect the
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and strategic
infrastructures (the port and airport) in Mogadishu from the
insurgents who had strengthened their position as Ethiopian
forces withdrew, and to provide support for humanitarian
assistance for the Somali population. The proposed
additional deployment to Somalia must be viewed in the
context of the chronically unstable situation in Mogadishu
and in Somalia as a whole.
In a nutshell, the AU decision to reinforce AMISOM by
almost 2 000 troops would increase the size of the force from
its current level of around 6 300 (4 Ugandan and 3
Burundian battalions), to the 8 000 mandated in 2007. Some
AU member states had even called for the force to be augmented to between 14 000 and 20 000 troops. This Policy Brief examines the apparent urgency to increase
AMISOM force levels. It interrogates the AU’s
interventionist strategy in Somalia, including the planned
troop surge, analyses the terrorist dimension of the bombings,
drawing parallels with the Afghanistan case as a basis for
suggestions for a clear and holistic approach to the conflict
in Somalia.
Abstract: The Burundi peace process has essentially been completed. At the time of
writing this monograph (August 2009), the last rebel group to the conflict,
Parti pour la Liberation du Peuple Hutu – Forces Nationales de Libération
(PALIPEHUTU-FNL), had just begun its Disarmament, Demobilisation and
Reintegration (DDR) process and had been registered as a political party.
This monograph will focus on the role played by peacekeeping missions in
the Burundian peace process to ensure that agreements signed by parties to
the conflict were adhered to and implemented. The deployment of peacekeeping
missions went full circle and more. An African Union (AU) peace mission
followed by a United Nations (UN) mission replaced the initial South African
Protection Support Detachment (SAPSD). Because the peace process had not
yet been completed, and because of the return of the PALIPEHUTU-FNL to
Burundi, the UN Security Council (UNSC) approved the redeployment of an
AU mission to oversee the completion of the final phase by December 2008.
Abstract: There are an estimated 250,000 child soldiers - boys and girls under the age of 18- who are being compelled to serve in more than 15 conflicts worldwide. Child soldiers are forcibly recruited or abducted and are used as combatants, messengers, porters, cooks and to provide sexual services. International Law now recognizes child soldiers as victims of war crimes. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security, however, has opposed asylum to child soldiers on the grounds that their military service subjects them to the “persecutor bar.” This article argues that a per se bar of child soldiers from asylum contradicts the U.S.’s adherence to the international view that the use of child soldiers constitutes a violation of human rights, domestic laws declaring recruitment of child soldiers a crime, and active support of the eradication of the use of child soldiers. The article concludes by offering an approach to determining when a child soldier should be subjected to the persecutor bar that balances the seriousness of the child soldier’s actions against the circumstances under which s/he was recruited.
Abstract: Migration to, from, and across Jordan since the Palestinian exodus of 1948 has played a key role in the country's politics, economy, and society. These movements have several underlying, interacting patterns. The main ones are connected to regional geopolitics, the fluctuations of the oil economy in the Persian Gulf, and efforts by the kingdom's Hashemite monarchy to ensure its own stability.
Jordan is a case in point for how various forms of mobility can have strong political and economic implications, both domestically and regionally.
Like most other Middle Eastern states, Jordan is a recent creation, having been established in 1921 within borders drawn by European colonial powers. It soon became the first host of Palestinian refugees. These people have arrived in several waves since the creation of the State of Israel in 1948, forming a very large and integral part of the kingdom's population.
Because of the unresolved issue of Palestinian statehood, this migration has constantly posed a challenge to the Jordanian regime. At the same time, it has been an asset to the country's economic development.
Abstract: The January 2011 referendum on self-determination could result in Sudan’s partition, and the country’s North-South border may ultimately become the world’s newest international boundary. The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended two decades of civil war called for the border between the North and the semi-autonomous South to be demarcated within six months. Five years later, the task remains incomplete. The sooner the parties break the border deadlock the better, though the process need not necessarily be completed prior to the referendum as Khartoum has argued previously. Furthermore, a solution to the border is about not only drawing a line, but also defining the nature and management of that border and the future relations of communities on both sides. A “soft” boundary is ideal, one backed by a framework for cross-border arrangements and, if necessary, safeguarded by a joint monitoring mechanism. Progress toward both demarcating and defining the border will prevent it from becoming a source of renewed conflict in the post-CPA era.
Abstract: The North Caucasus experienced another deadly summer (May 1 – August 31, 2010). Although Chechnya and Ingushetia saw comparatively less violence than they did in Summer 2009, we observed a troubling rise in the level of violence in Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria. Dagestan proved the most deadly republic in the region, while Kabardio-Balkaria, normally a relatively quiet republic, incurred levels of violence surpassing Chechnya.
Since 2008, CSIS staff has tracked, on a daily basis, incidents of violence occurring in the North Caucasus. We have released seven previous reports, the last of whichillustrated the dramatic rise in violence in Spring 2010.
In this report, we present our data for Summer 2010 (May 1–August 31), paying particular attention to the geographic spread of the violence across the North Caucasus, most notably into Kabardino-Balkaria.
Abstract: The US may be announcing the “withdrawal” of its combat forces – although six Advisory and Assistance brigade and ~ 50,000 men may remain up to the end of 2011. The fact is, however, that the US withdrawal is far from over, the Iraq War is not over, it is not “won,” and any form of stable end state in Iraq is probably impossible before 2020.
In fact, Iraq is at as critical a stage as at any time since 2003. Regardless of the reasons for going to war, everything now depends on a successful transition to an effective and unified Iraqi government, and Iraqi security forces that can bring both security and stability to the average Iraqi. The creation of such an “end state” will take a minimum of another five years, and probably ten.
Abstract: Pakistan's floods have affected twenty million people and killed nearly sixteen hundred so far, according to the United Nations. The United States has been rallying international assistance for Pakistan; on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged additional aid at a UN meeting (BBC) boosting total U.S. flood aid to $150 million, and Senator John Kerry (D-MA) visited flood-ravaged areas in Pakistan to assess ongoing relief efforts. CFR Senior Fellow Daniel Markey says the floods have compounded Pakistan's challenges and made Washington's efforts in the fight against extremism more difficult. The floods are a huge setback to the Pakistani military's recent successes in the tribal areas along the Afghan border, and to the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan, he says. At the same time, Markey adds, they are an opportunity for Washington to show its commitment to Pakistan. Beyond offering humanitarian relief aid, Markey recommends that the United States open its markets to Pakistani textiles, an industry expected to suffer due to cotton crops' flood damage.
Abstract: Rwanda’s laws on “genocide ideology” and “sectarianism”, more commonly known
as “divisionism”, were introduced in the decade following the 1994 Rwandan
genocide. Up to 800,000 Rwandans were killed during the 1994 genocide, most of
them ethnic Tutsi, but also some Hutu who opposed this organized killing and the
forces that directed it. Aware of the role that hate speech1 and the infamous hate
radio Radio Télévision Libre des Milles Collines (RTLM) played in inciting genocidal
participation,2 the post-genocide government led by the Rwandan Patriotic Front
(RPF) enacted laws to encourage unity and restrict speech that could promote
hatred.
Following six years of extensive reforms to the conventional justice system, the
Rwandan government announced a review of the “genocide ideology” law in April
2010. Amnesty International welcomes this government initiative. This report
identifies Amnesty International’s concerns about the current legislation and its
application in light of the Rwandan government’s review process. This report is based on numerous interviews conducted by Amnesty International
staff in Rwanda in September and November 2009 and March 2010. They
conducted interviews in Rwanda’s capital, Kigali, as well as in the provinces.
Interviews were in English, French or Kinyarwanda with French translation. Some
individuals were interviewed on more than one occasion. This report is not intended to be a comprehensive overview of all “genocide
ideology” and “sectarianism” cases, convictions and acquittals. Instead, our
research documents problematic trends in how these laws have been applied.
Abstract: ◆ Africa’s fragile states create political and security environments that enhance the leverage of Islamist extremists in their ongoing struggle with moderates for influence. Countering extremism in Africa, therefore, cannot be separated from building stronger, more legitimate states.
◆ Robust state security operations can neutralize extremists in the short term. However, they are an insufficient long-term counterextremism strategy unless coupled with opportunities for moderates to engage in the political process.
◆ In fragile states, maintaining moderate Islamist support for the state should be a central stabilization objective.
Abstract: Failed bilateral talks over these past 16 years have shown that a Middle East peace accord can never be reached by the parties themselves. Israeli governments believe they can defy international condemnation of their illegal colonial project in the West Bank because they can count on the US to oppose international sanctions.
Bilateral talks that are not framed by US-formulated parameters (based on Security Council resolutions, the Oslo accords, the Arab Peace Initiative, the “road map” and other previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements) cannot succeed.
This paper focuses on the other major obstacle to a permanent status agreement: the absence of an effective Palestinian interlocutor. Addressing Hamas’ legitimate grievances – and as noted in a recent CENTCOM report, Hamas has legitimate grievances – could lead to its return to a Palestinian coalition government that would provide Israel with a credible peace partner. If that outreach fails because of Hamas’ rejectionism, the organization’s ability to prevent a reasonable accord negotiated by other Palestinian political parties will have been significantly impeded.
If the Obama administration will not lead an international initiative to define the parameters of an Israeli-Palestinian agreement and actively promote Palestinian political reconciliation, Europe must do so, and hope America will follow. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet that can guarantee the goal of “two states living side by side in peace and security.” But President Obama’s present course absolutely precludes it.
Abstract: This paper examines the history of civil wars in Uganda through the concept of 'elite bargains', arguing that allowing a biased access to positions of state power fails to accommodate the dominant social cleavages and is more likely to lead to civil war. Drawing on the definition of 'elite bargains' as developed at the Crisis States Research Centre, as well as on the wider literature surrounding issues of state power and the distribution of rights and entitlements, the paper draws a distinction between 'inclusive' and 'exclusionary' bargains and their differential outcomes.
Abstract: This paper considers the reasons behind Zambia's avoidance of civil war, despite persistent regional instability, focusing on the inclusiveness of the country's 'elite bargain', i.e. the inter-group distribution of access to positions of state power. The author hypothesizes that, although colonial rule left Zambia with high levels of social fragmentation - evident in pronounced tribal, linguistic and class cleavages - the country's post-colonial governments have all managed to accommodate the colonial legacy of high social fragmentation by forging and maintaining inclusive elite bargains. The paper argues that this achievement can be directly related to the avoidance of civil war since independence in 1964.
Abstract: The paper examines the relationship between conflict and entrepreneurial activity in Afghanistan, drawing upon a unique data set, the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment household survey 2005. Afghanistan is severely underdeveloped and poor. Conflict has persisted in vast swathes of the country for decades, so that Afghanistan may be more appropriately described as an in-, rather than post-, conflict country. At the same time, qualitative (and anecdotal) evidence suggests that entrepreneurial activity is ubiquitous, although mainly due to survival strategies rather than a spirit of entrepreneurialism. We empirically explore whether conflict affects the likelihood of a household to engage in entrepreneurial activity, proxied by sources of income coming from holding a small business. We control for the household characteristics and those of the environment, such as social capital, access to resources and infrastructure, as well as the presence of a minimal institutional governance system, to isolate the impact of conflict on household entrepreneurial behaviour. We find that the direct negative effect of the conflict on entrepreneurship is very small. The results on the control variables suggest that (i) the generation of entrepreneurship has seen conflict and instability for a whole life,( ii) a small business is a mean of surviving in a situation where any other support is lacking, (iii) it is a viable strategy when the household can cover some of the associated risks, (iv) there is no indirect effect of conflict via institutions and infrastructure, and (v) entrepreneurial activity may substitute for lacking markets and governance institutions. These results call for further and more in-depth research on Afghanistan as an overlooked area of study by the academic and development research community despite representing a priority for internationally supported reconstruction.
Abstract: Rule of law reforms in Liberia over the past five years serve as a clear example of how the international community has failed on this point, as the country’s own practices have been generally neglected in the process. Characteristically, there is little updated information on the customary law and traditional practices of Liberia. In investigating how the international community addresses SGBV in Liberia, we found within the liberal peacekeeping/building paradigm few analytical tools that could be used to gain a solid understanding of the host country ‘from below’. This area of society remains a professional blind-spot and represents a gap in the efforts of the international peacekeeping/-building community to build a sustainable peace in the country.
Abstract: Following the U.S.-led attack against Afghanistan in October 2001, Taliban sympathizers in Pakistan’s western tribal areas quickly pledged support and provided additional manpower and resources to help the Afghan Taliban resistance. The Pashtun tribes who dominate the western tribal agencies of Pakistan share ancestral lineages with many of Afghanistan’s Pashtun tribesman and both have long resisted colonial attempts of occupation. Even in a modern context, the core of the Afghan resistance movement against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan was based in these same areas, using Peshawar as a de facto capital and the tribal agency’s of North and South Waziristan as training areas and key junctions for transiting personnel and weapons into Afghanistan. Presented in this overview is an operational snapshot of the TTP and its influential leaders throughout eight tribal regions in located in western Pakistan: North and South Waziristan, Bajaur Agency, Mohmand Agency, Orakzai Agency, Kurram Agency Khyber Agency and Darra
Adamkhel.
Abstract: This issue includes the following articles: Evaluating the Al-Qa`ida Threat to the U.S. Homeland by Philip Mudd; The Growing Danger from Radical Islamist Groups in the United States, by Paul Cruickshank; Manchester, New York and Oslo: Three Centrally Directed Al-Qa`ida Plots, by Raffaello Pantucci; Lessons Learned from the July 2010 Norwegian Terrorist Plot, by Petter Nesser and Brynjar Lia; American Journeys to Jihad:
U.S. Extremists and Foreign Conflicts During the 1980s and 1990s, by William Rosenau and Sara Daly; American Journeys to Jihad: U.S. Extremists and Foreign Conflicts During the 1980s and 1990s, by William Rosenau and Sara Daly.
Abstract: This issue includes the following articles: The Mysterious Relationship Between
Al-Qa`ida and Iran, by Bruce Riedel; Al-Shabab’s Agenda in the Wake of the Kampala Suicide Attacks, by Tim Pippard; The Punjabi Taliban: Causes and Consequences of Turning Against the State, by Ben Brandt; The Ghazi Force: A Threat to Pakistan’s
Urban Centers, by Syed Manzar Abbas Zaidi; Pakistan’s Challenges in Orakzai
Agency, by Tayyab Ali Shah; The Growing Threat of Female Suicide
Attacks in Western Countries, by Houriya Ahmed; Countering Terrorist Financing:
Successes and Setbacks in the Years
Since 9/11, by Michael Jonsson.
Abstract: This issue includes the following articles: AQAP’s Growing Security Threat to
Saudi Arabia, by Caryle Murphy; Assessing AQI’s Resilience After April’s Leadership Decapitations, by Myriam Benraad; The Return of Moqtada al-Sadr and the Revival of the Mahdi Army, by Babak Rahimi; Indoctrinating Children: The Making of Pakistan’s Suicide Bombers, by Kalsoom Lakhani; The Third Way: A Paradigm for
Influence in the Marketplace of Ideas, by Scott Helfstein; Still Fighting for Revolution:
Greece’s New Generation of Terrorists, by George Kassimeris;
Abstract: This issue includes the following articles: Riyaz Bhatkal and the Origins of the
Indian Mujahidin, by Praveen Swami; Salafi-Jihadi Activism in Gaza: Mapping the Threat, by Benedetta Berti; The Virtual Jihad: An Increasingly Legitimate Form of Warfare, by Akil N. Awan; Internet Jihadists React to the Deaths of Al-Qa`ida’s Leaders in Iraq, by Abdul Hameed Bakier; The Kidnapping and Execution of
Khalid Khwaja in Pakistan, by Rahimullah Yusufzai; The Sources of the Abu Sayyaf’s Resilience in the Southern Philippines, by Rommel C. Banlaoi.
