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Abstract: In recent months Bangladeshi authorities have waged an unprecedented campaign of arbitrary arrest, illegal expulsion, and forced internment against Burmese refugees. In this emergency report Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) presents new data and documents dire conditions for these persecuted Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. PHR's medical investigators warn that critical levels of acute malnutrition and a surging camp population without access to food aid will cause more deaths from starvation and disease if the humanitarian crisis is not addressed.
Abstract: If economics is the original dismal science, then climate
change could be its understudy.
Hardly a day goes by without a new scientific
report revealing more worrying news about the
rapid progress of climate change. Reports on climate
change typically make for grim bedtime
reading – full of worrying statistics and doomsday
scenarios. Sometimes it feels like the only question
left is whether the rising sea levels, tornadoes
or forest fires will get you first.
As the meteorological picture comes into focus,
campaigners have begun to argue that climate
change holds potentially serious implications for
international security. The basic argument is that
climate change – by redrawing the maps of water
availability, food security, disease prevalence and
coastal boundaries – will reduce the available food
and water, increase migration, raise tensions and
trigger new conflicts.
Abstract: Confused about the recent slew of arrests and/or deaths of al-Qaeda and Taliban commanders in Afghanistan and Pakistan? Here's a roundup of who, what, where, and when.
Abstract: The U.S. government’s reliance on contractors, including the State Department’s and Department of Defense’s (DOD) use of private security contractors in Iraq, has been well documented. We and others have examined many of the challenges the government faces using contractors in Iraq, including issues related to the scope of private security contractors’ activities, the challenges in providing sufficient oversight, the appropriate accountability processes, and difficulties in conducting background screenings of foreign national contractor employees. (A list of related GAO products can be found at the end of this report.) What has not been so well examined is the comparative cost of using civilian employees or military members versus the cost of using contractors, particularly private security contractors, during contingency operations such as Operation Iraqi Freedom. Generally, when costs have been discussed, the focus has been on the daily rate paid to contractor employees, rather than on the total costs of using State Department or DOD personnel. However, in October 2005, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a study that compared the cost of using military personnel, federal civilians, or contractors to provide logistic support for overseas operations.
Abstract: New data from centrist Democratic pollsters shows President Barack Obama and the party losing ground on national security with key voters, and they urge him to toughen up his rhetoric on terrorism, but it’s a prescription that ignores an important point the president has been trying to make. The poll, conducted by veteran Democratic political consultants Stan Greenberg and Jeremy Rosner, found that President Obama had strong personal approval ratings among voters in most areas of national security - higher indeed than his approval rating overall, which was 47 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving.
Conducted in late February, the poll surveyed 851 adults who voted in 2008 and said they were likely to do so again in 2010.
More than half of the likely voters approved of the president’s handling of Afghanistan (58 percent to 37 percent disapproving); national security (57 percent to 40); “leading America’s military” (57 percent to 38); fighting terrorism (54 percent to 41); and Iraq (54 percent to 40).
These numbers, though still strong, are down from the 60 percent plus territory they were in when the pollsters ran their survey in May last year.
Nonetheless, the president’s approval ratings are currently in negative territory on only two national security issues: Iran (42 percent approving to 49 percent disapproving) and the “prosecution and interrogation of terrorism suspects.”
Abstract: [...] Facing comparatively few restrictions, U.S. legal residents and citizens can travel abroad, connect with terrorist groups to gain explosives or weapons training, and return here to plan and execute attacks. Particularly troubling are homegrown extremists who possess facility with both American and foreign cultures, including language skills. Such multi-cultural familiarity could allow them to operate freely both at home and overseas and to elude—far more easily than foreign nationals—U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials. Combating these tendencies requires action at the local, state, and federal levels. Local governments, supported by federal agencies like the Department of Homeland Security, must continue to build strong partnerships with Muslim communities. This type of cooperation is important because the friends and family of suspected extremists often are the best resources for law enforcement officials.
The federal government also must continue to support official partnerships among local, state, and federal law enforcement agencies. Such efforts—embodied in Joint Terrorism Task Forces and fusion centers—are crucial to apprehending domestic extremists because they combine local expertise (knowledge of neighborhoods and communities) with federal expertise (national intelligence and counterterrorism tools) to form a comprehensive approach to the threat.
Policymakers and officials at the national level also must address two key issues that play heavily in the five cases discussed here. First, they must consider new ways to interdict the growing trend of “Internet radicalization.” Many of last fall’s suspects connected with transnational terrorist recruiters via the Internet; stopping this sort of activity is crucial to stemming domestic extremism in the United States.
Second, several of those arrested last fall seemed to harbor the belief that the United States is at war with Islam. This is a “narrative” that al Qaeda and other global terrorist groups actively promulgate; it holds that U.S. counterterrorism efforts signify a “clash of civilizations” between the West and Islam. The United States must continue to work to puncture this narrative. White House officials already have discarded phrases like “war on radical Islam.” But ultimately, the United States needs to go further than this, because al Qaeda seizes on more than just U.S. rhetoric to galvanize support for its agenda; the group also points to America’s military presence in Muslim countries as evidence for its preferred narrative. The United States, then, should consider how to balance the need to combat global terrorism with the drawbacks of large-scale, direct military intervention. Doing so will require the United States to forge stronger partnerships with states plagued by extremist violence.
Abstract: In the run-up to today's historically significant parliamentary polls in Iraq, a volume of commentary has been offered on the complex internal dynamics in play and their critical import for the future direction of the country.
But a question that begs asking is where do Iraq's neighbours stand on these critical elections. Given the volatile reality of the Middle East and its tortuous geopolitics, states in the region have an intimate interest and much at stake in how their neighbours are run.
With much at risk for the stability of Iraq and its concomitant effects on bordering states, today's elections will be watched with great anxiety in capitals across the Middle East.
Tehran, in particular, will be following electoral developments over its western border in Iraq. Iranian foreign policy vis-à-vis Iraq is not necessarily ideological in its underpinnings. It is misleading to analyse Iran-Iraq relations through the prism of a Shia alliance.
Abstract: As Afghanistan contracting surges, US agencies fail to coordinate, inviting waste and abuse. In the past eight years, the United States has allocated $51 billion to rebuild and stabilize Afghanistan. But tracking that money sometimes seems as challenging as finding the leaders of the Taliban.
No one keeps an exact count of the number of private contractors working in Afghanistan -- even though Congress ordered that be done more than two years ago. There’s no central list of all the contracts now in force. Government auditors cannot determine with confidence if the reconstruction money is being properly spent or meets the stated objectives. And efforts to improve coordination among the key U.S. agencies managing the money -- the Pentagon, the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development -- have lagged at best.
That is the picture that emerges from dozens of interviews with auditors, contractors, congressional aides and inspectors general, who echo the findings of independent government reports over the past decade. Without rigorous record-keeping, they say, the contracting process is vulnerable to waste, duplication of effort and fraud.
Abstract: A growing number of rape reports, including against very young girls and gang rapes, fill
Cambodian newspapers. Most police, NGO workers and public officials working with the issue
agree that rape is on the increase. The lack of appropriate services for victims of rape is
acute, and reflects social attitudes about rape and sexual violence.
Cambodia’s new Penal Code will enter into force late 2010. Amnesty International urges the
Cambodian government to seize this opportunity to address inadequate law enforcement in
cases of gender-based violence. The government has plans and strategies to tackle genderbased
discrimination, with a clear focus on human trafficking and domestic violence. They
need to incorporate rape and other sexual violence into these efforts, ensuring political will to
address this problem. The government’s limited public condemnation of rape echoes a lack
of social sanction. The lack of services – and policy discussions – may be interpreted as an
implicit acceptance of sexual violence on the part of the government and vast swathes of
society. The limited access to adequate medical and social services is a further indication
that the authorities do not acknowledge the severe trauma experienced by victims.
Abstract: Transatlantic cooperation on the Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy
was bound to become easier with President Obama in charge.
And so it did, at least at first. Obama’s demands for a greater European
role in ‘AfPak’ were initially met. European governments deployed more
troops and agreed to a new NATO training mission for the ANSF. $500
million in additional civilian assistance to Afghanistan was pledged at the
NATO meeting in April 2009.
Looking back over Obama’s first year in office, however, one can discern
two phases of transatlantic cooperation. One started in January
2009 and lasted until mid-year, during which time US-European
cooperation was close. Another ongoing period began in autumn
2009, during which US-European policy began to falter, a US
Afghanistan-Pakistan policy re-examination ensued and transatlantic
cooperation decreased.
This is not to say that Europe was content with US strategy in one
period and dissatisfied in another. Throughout, European governments
have happily declared NATO’s Afghan mission vital to their
own security, but in practice have continued to treat it as a US
responsibility. Together, they have undertaken little joint strategising
– as opposed to national planning – and have generally used their
troops to curry favour with the US administration.
Abstract: This backgrounder provides an update on the political landscape in Iraq on the eve
of parliamentary elections. The paper begins with a brief overview of the electoral
process. The second part of the backgrounder documents the Shi’a, Sunni, and
Kurdish political landscapes. This paper concludes with some considerations on the
post-election period of government formation. Roughly 18.9 million Iraqis are registered to vote in the upcoming election, at more than 10,000 polling centers across the country. Each polling center comprises one or more polling stations, of which there are more than 50,000 in total. More than 300,000 domestic election observers and observers from various political parties will monitor the election; in addition, eight diplomatic missions and international organizations have been asked to participate as international election monitors. Security for the polling sites will be provided by the Iraqi Security Forces, with some planning assistance and enablers provided by U.S. forces.
Abstract: A concern over the potential for resource competition to serve as a driver for conflict has
established the need to more fully examine the relationship between energy resources and
conflict. This exploratory correlational study examined the relationship between oil resources,
armed conflict and stability. The ability of abundant oil resources to attract conflict and the ability of oil resource deficits to compel participation in armed conflict abroad were both explored. Since instability may be a precursor to conflict, the relationship between oil resources and stability was also examined. Overall, no statistically significant relationships were found between oil resources and either armed conflict or stability. However, stability was significantly related to both hosting and participating in conflict, although with opposite polarities. Results indicate that in today’s global environment oil resources alone may be insufficient as an indicator of energy’s contribution to active, armed conflict.
Abstract: The demands of counter-insurgency have sparked much discussion about the need for
army reform. But it is also the case that government, as a whole, must adapt to the
present campaign. Britain has lagged behind the US in this regard, and it is not clear that
sufficient political will exists in the UK for real change. However, British capacity is only
ever the first step: ultimately, what matters for successful stabilisation is the capability
and legitimacy of the host government.
Abstract: Islamic private schools are part of the national fabric of Palestinian society and represent a grass-roots movement that is not about assuming power over the state or recruiting 'Islamic militants.' Instead, their function is to assert the role of Islam in contributing to Palestinian national development, a function that may or may not be politicised but is neither dramatic nor sinister. In fact, they may be seen as important contributions to building a viable civil society in Palestine. However, the struggle between Fatah and Hamas for political power, as along with international counterterrorism measures, has seriously affected a number of Islamic charities and the schools they run. The result is economic problems and a weakening of these institutions in Palestinian society. Based on empirical study of local Islamic private schools in the West Bank and Gaza, this report analyses their activities and relation to Islamism. This fills a gap in literature about Islamic movements, where education is often mentioned, but seldom taken seriously or studied in detail.
Abstract: Yemen has become one of the most important strongholds and safe havens for al-Qaeda. The impact of Yemen’s Salafi-Jihadist movement is no longer limited to that nation and its national security alone. The threat posed by Yemen’s militant Salafists has spread to neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia and more distantly to the United States, as indicated by the failed Christmas Day suicide bombing of a Northwest Airways passenger plane by Nigerian Umar al-Faruq Abd al-Mutalib, who received his training in Yemen. Given the pivotal role that Yemen’s militant Islamists are playing as a host for al-Qaeda and a magnet for jihadis from abroad, this article seeks to analyze the structure of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and identify the social and ideological structures that led to its success
Abstract: This research paper focuses on the European Union funding priorities in four Eastern European countries neighbouring the EU (Belarus, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine) for refugee protection, migration management and border reinforcement, which has been completed by the Eastern Europe project funded by the EU's Aeneas programme. The research was undertaken from Autumn 2007 to Spring 2008, with a final update in November 2008. The focus of the research is on EU's funding programmes in 2004-2007.
Abstract: Today, the Palestinians are divided geographically and politically. Hamas governs Gaza. Palestinian public discourse, including public education, about Israel and Jews is still infused with anti-Semitism, and the infrastructure of terrorism has not been dismantled. In Israel, a right-wing coalition governs, perceived by the Palestinians and others as more interested in enhancing Israel’s grip on the West Bank than negotiating a peace settlement based on Resolution 242. Settlement activity continues, despite the highly-conditioned and temporary moratorium on new housing starts. Some Israeli actions in East Jerusalem are provoking Palestinian protests that threaten to upset a relatively calm situation.
Abstract: In the seventeen years since it was first
launched, the peace process has gone through times that were better and through times
that were worse, but none that were more complex, confusing or contradictory as today.
That is because of late so much that had been relatively stable -- in terms of the character
of local actors, shape of the regional landscape and assessment of the U.S. role -- has
undergone dramatic shifts. Only a handful of these recent transformations need mention:
the death of Yasser Arafat, father of Palestinian nationalism, and incapacitation of Ariel
Sharon, Israel's last heroic leader; Fatah's crisis; Hamas's electoral triumph and takeover
in Gaza; the 2006 Lebanon and 2008 Gaza wars, which shook Israel's confidence and
bolstered that of Islamist militants; the failure of the Abbas-Olmert talks; U.S. regional
setbacks in Iraq and diplomatic disengagement elsewhere; Iran's increased influence; and
the growing role of other regional players. This is not a mere change in scenery. It is a
new world. As the ground beneath the peace process has shifted, U.S. efforts have yet to
fully adjust.
Abstract: In addition to the vital diplomatic track, the Palestinian Authority has initiated the most important innovation in many years with regard to Middle East peace: the program of the 13th Palestinian Government issued last August by Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and his Cabinet, under the leadership of President Mahmoud Abbas. The plan is for Palestinians to build the institutional, infrastructural, economic and administrative framework of their state in spite of the occupation with the intention of ending the occupation. All parties, including Israel, say it is their intention to realize the two-state solution. By adopting this program, Palestinians are taking up the responsibilities of self-government as they continue to insist on the right of self-determination.
Abstract: To date, the Israeli-Palestinian issue has not worked out as the Obama Administration
had hoped. The picture is mixed. While the developments on the ground in the West
Bank have shown promise and hope, the top-down political negotiations have not only
made little progress, but have even regressed. We have gone from a point where Israeli
Prime Minister Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas were at advanced
stages of negotiations, to a point where there have been no negotiations at all between the
parties for nearly a year. There may be several reasons for this, yet as President Obama
himself has publicly admitted, it is due in no small measure to an early miscalculation by
Washington that triggered a series of events and expectations that could not be overcome
during the Administration‟s first year. On Wednesday March 3rd, Arab foreign ministers gave their long-awaited support for
Abbas to participate in proximity talks, whereby Senator Mitchell will shuttle between
Israelis and Palestinians. Such talks must be a transition to direct talks between the
parties themselves. In contrast, if these talks become an alternative to direct talks, they
will fail. It is impossible for any party or any country to make the most vital decisions
possible without the confidence of dealing directly with the other side.
Abstract: This map represents the situation in Vanni, Sri Lanka in terms of internally displaced persons, repatriation/ returnees, shelter and non-food assistance and arrivals, as of February 25th, 2010.
Abstract: As Shelley Anderson suggests, war and gender are intimately related. Gender lies at war’s heart and the conduct and impact of war are equally gendered. Although conflict transformation is based on values traditionally regarded as ‘feminine,’ it struggles to implement them in a world shaped by masculinity. Shelley Anderson is an old colleague with an inspiring track record in gender work. We see things very much alike. As she suggests in her article Vital peace constituencies a hidden war is being waged against women: a war on many fronts, expressed as beatings, rapes (whether marital or otherwise), ‘honour killings’ and other murders. It involves daily humiliation; imprisonment in the home and debarment from travel; deprivation of parental rights and property ownership; and exclusion from political and economic power. In all too many places these things are ‘normal’ and their impact, in terms of injury, death and ongoing suffering of all kinds, is equivalent to that of war.
Abstract: This article, 'Women, men and gun violence: options for action', forms part of a larger publication on directions for the reduction of small arms control. In this piece the authors emphasise a gender equity approach to reduce risks and bolster resilience to insecurity and violence. A number of issues are explored such as: men, masculinities, and guns: the largest numbers of acts of violence are committed by men; women’s multiple roles: women play multiple roles in times of war and unique roles in the aftermath; national gun laws and consequences for safety: gun laws can have important and positive consequences when analysed from a gender perspective; building gender-aware programmes: policy analysts, researchers and programme planners often speak exclusively to men about finding solutions to security problems.
Abstract: The international discourse on gender and peacebuilding presupposes a common agenda among all women across religion, ethnicity and class in any given post-conflict situation. This brief challenges this position by exploring the attitudes and priorities of Muslim female activists in Sudan. Disunited and politicized, they have multiple and competing priorities rather than a common gender-based agenda.
Abstract: The last decade has seen much more detailed attention to the many, sometimes contradictory, roles women play in conflict situations. But women remain a vital peace constituency. Diana Francis’s argument that a sustainable and just peace can only be built by local peacebuilders is both compelling and cogent. As she also points out the chances are high that those local peacebuilders will be women. The reasons for this are many. As a group women are often excluded from political power, and from decisions regarding armed conflict. Any political benefits gained from armed conflict are likely to be less for them. Coupled with the higher rates of civilian casualties in modern warfare - indeed, civilians are frequently a specific target - women’s stake in armed conflict is even less. Women’s kinship and community networks and their knowledge of local affairs often make them very effective early warning monitors. They can be among the first to hear rumours of or see preparations for war, such as a sudden influx of small arms into the community. This was why, when market vendors began refusing to sell goods to members of another clan, and marriage celebrations were shortened so that participants could return to the safety of homes earlier in the proceedings, concerned women in Wajir, Kenya, came together to explore ways to reduce the increasing community polarisation and to prevent violence.
