Bodea, Cristina

This paper argues that state weakness is broader than implied previously in the civil war literature, and that particular types of weakness in interaction with natural resources have aggravating or mitigating consequences for the risk of civil war. While in anocracies or unstable regimes natural resources can be expected to increase the risk of civil war, we suggest that resource wealth allows weak leaders to stabilize their relationship with their inner elite circle. In particular, for regimes at risk of coup d’état, the availability of substantial resources is more likely to be channeled in ways that deter rebellion, plausibly countering the grievances generated by natural resources and rebels’ viewing of such resources as a prize for taking over the state. Data from 1946–2003 and multiple empirical operationalizations broadly support our argument. These findings are consistent with work showing that resource rents can induce stability in state - society relationships.

De Juan, Alexander

Institutions can contribute to regulating interethnic conflict; however, in many cases they fail to bring about lasting peace. The paper argues that their negligence of intraethnic factors accounts for some of this failure. Ethnic groups are often treated as unitary actors even though most consist of various linguistic, tribal or religious subgroups. This internal heterogeneity is often obscured by overarching collective ethnic identities that are fostered by interethnic conflict. However, when such interethnic conflict is settled, these subgroup differences may come back to the fore. This “resurgence” can lead to subgroup conflict about the political and economic resources provided through intergroup institutional settlements. Such conflict can in turn undermine the peace-making effect of intergroup arrangements. Different subgroup identity constellations make such destructive effects more or less likely. The paper focuses on self-government provisions in the aftermath of violent interethnic conflict and argues that lasting intergroup arrangements are especially challenging when they involve “contested” ethnic groups.

Delavande, Adeline, and Ricardo Menezes Cordeiro

This paper investigates the relationship between violent conflicts and risky sexual behavior in Uganda. We use geographical and temporal variation in conflict intensity and a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate how individual exposure to conflicts in the past 5 years influences the decision to engage in risky sex. We find that exposure to more conflicts leads to safer sex practice. We further investigate how the relationship between risky sexual behavior and violent conflict exposure varies depending on the malaria risk in the region where individuals live. We find a heterogeneous effect highlighting that behavioral response to an increase in conflict exposure varies by the burden of diseases an individual faces: additional conflict exposure leads to safer sex practice in places with high malaria-related mortality and to riskier sex practice in places with low malaria-related mortality.

Vincent, James B.M.

In Sierra Leone, as in most of Africa, states have not only a direct relationship with their citizens as individuals but also a mediated one through rural governance systems that usually pre-date colonialism and may have greater legitimacy than the central state itself. And these local governance structures generally persisted through the country’s collapse and civil war more successfully than the central state did. This report therefore offers a ‘bottom-up’ review of the post-war reconstruction of the Sierra Leone state.

Hanauer, Larry, and Laurel E. Miller

Tensions among Arabs, Kurds, and Turkomen in northern Iraq have the potential to escalate into intercommunal violence that draws Iraq back into civil war, leads the Kurdistan Region to secede, and topples Iraq’s nascent political structures. Of all the issues that could spark violence between these groups, none is more explosive than the political and legal status of the city of Kirkuk.

Kirkuk is not the first ethnically heterogeneous territory to be fought over by different communities. Throughout modern history, disputes over ethnically mixed territories have been settled through negotiations that established new structures for governance, instituted policies that either promoted assimilation or guaranteed communal autonomy, and defined relationships between the disputed territory and neighboring entities. Efforts to resolve other ethno-territorial conflicts, whether successful or not, can offer insights that may prove valuable in the effort to reach a negotiated solution regarding Kirkuk.

This monograph examines the academic literature regarding the governance of divided and multiethnic territories and regarding the most challenging aspects of ethno-territorial disputes—ethnic identity, security, sovereignty, and control over land. Next, it looks at agreements that resolved three earlier conflicts over multiethnic territories— Northern Ireland and the Bosnian cities of Mostar and Brcko—as well as some of the factors that have prevented Israelis and Palestinians from reaching a negotiated settlement regarding Jerusalem. It then applies insights from the literature and case studies to the situation in Kirkuk, drawing lessons that could positively shape future negotiations. Finally, the report considers steps the United States and other outside parties might take to promote a peaceful resolution of the city’s status.

Hussman, Karen, Sarah Dix, and Grant Wilson

Examining the cases of Liberia, Nepal and Colombia, this study asks how corruption poses risks to political legitimacy and stability in fragile situations. The report focuses on the key role of elites and their views of the state's legitimacy in determining the extent to which there will be instability or stability. Qualitative interviews of elites show that two particular patronage scenarios are seen as threatening stability. One is when the state or illegal actors sustain a corrupt network by violently eliminating opponents. The other is when corruption benefits few people, the benefits are not distributed “fairly,” and the population’s basic needs are not met. Public opinion data suggest that despite corruption, the legitimacy of governments and public institutions in the three countries studied is reasonably high. The impact of corruption on legitimacy and stability is mitigated by other factors. Anti-corruption initiatives potentially strengthen state legitimacy, but undermine it if they fail to deliver or become too far-reaching. In conclusion, the report makes recommendations to the international community for prioritising action on corruption.

Hovil, Lucy, et al.

This report is the seventh paper in its series on Citizenship and Displacement in the Great Lakes Region. The paper, “Darfurians in South Sudan: negotiating belonging in two Sudans” is about the construction of citizenship, identities and belonging at a moment of profound political change: the secession of South Sudan from the Republic of Sudan (Sudan or North Sudan) that took place on 9 July 2011.

The division of Sudan has had a huge impact on all Sudanese people, whether those perceived as “southern” who now find themselves stranded and rejected as foreigners in the North, “northerners” who do not identify with a repressive Sudanese government, new South Sudanese citizens returning to a newly configured South Sudan, or those displaced by the multiple and growing conflicts across Darfur and the border regions of South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. Beneath the surface of political change are multiple narratives and stories of individuals and groups who do not necessarily conform to tidy political categories, who find themselves in circumstances in which state-centric articulations of citizenship do not adequately reflect their circumstances, and who simply do not belong.

Based on 104 interviews with Darfurians displaced from Darfur, this paper explores one such narrative: the way in which Darfurians living in the South perceive, and are negotiating, their position within the new political configuration of South Sudan – whether temporarily or permanently. The paper argues that the treatment of the relatively small number of Darfurians in South Sudan represents something significant: by emphasising a state built on inclusion rather than exclusion, the fledgling South will enhance its ability to develop into a robust and sustainable political, economic and social community in which diversity is recognised as an asset rather than a threat, and core principles such as protection and the granting of asylum are upheld.

Lawrence, Michael

This paper outlines a comprehensive strategy for engaging non-state actors in security sector reform [SSR] by synthesizing the emerging literature on this approach and developing new conceptual tools to advance policy and practice. It explains when and why non-state security providers should be engaged in reform, outlines what such an approach would aim to achieve, provides tools with which to understand who such actors really are, then clarifies how international actors could pursue such a strategy. It then considers six outstanding challenges and uncertainties surrounding a non-state SSR strategy and, ultimately, argues that non-state engagement is a viable and attractive approach to SSR that merits further research and serious policy-making consideration.

Since the beginning of 2012, Mali has been faced with the worst crisis of its recent history, one that has questioned both the integrity of its territory as well as almost 20 years of political stability.

A Tuareg rebellion, fueled by fighters arriving from Libya after the fall of Mouammar Gaddafi, launched attacks against the Malian garrisons in the North of the country in early January 2012. The armed groups also committed serious infringements of international humanitarian law by executing the soldiers they caught in combat. The Malian army responded by bombing indiscriminately the civilian population.

Northern Mali has been weakened by several factors over the years, in particular: the disinvestment of the Malian state and the lack of development in this area which has caused much frustration; the development of all kinds of trafficking [drugs, trade of transnational migrants, weapons, vehicles, cigarettes]; and the presence of Al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) who transformed certain areas of the region into a safe haven where these groups hold hostages.

This report is based upon the findings of a three-week research mission undertaken in April 2012, in Bamako, the Malian capital city, and in Niger. In Niger, the Amnesty International delegation visited four Malian refugee sites close to the Nigerien border. The delegation was also able to meet with authorities from both the Malian and Nigerien governments.

Danielson, Nora

The sharing of information about asylum – its rules, rights, processes and privileges – is an inherent part of refugee protection and service provision. With the rise of new technologies, research and policy has paid increasing attention to the use and potentials of changing channels of communication. Refugees increasingly live in urban settings in the global south. Yet little is known about how communication about asylum happens in such cities, or what kinds of issues need to be navigated to effectively deliver information to diverse and dispersed communities within them.

Cairo, Egypt, with its large population of refugees from Iraq, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopia amongst others, is a significant case. Over nearly a decade, demonstrations by refugees at UNHCR have thrown up issues of urban refugee protection, and the political and civil unrest of 2011-12 has presented further problems. The Arab Spring brought communication’s importance in Cairo to a global stage. This paper explores circulation of information about asylum in the city, barriers that have blocked and capacities that might expand its way, based on ethnographic research in Cairo in 2011-12.

The research explores two related themes. First, what have been the dynamics, gaps and constraints of asylum-related information delivery in Cairo, and what impact have they had on refugee protection and service provision? Second, how are communication channels being used to provide information to refugees and asylum seekers, and what capacities and cautions should be considered for each? The paper first reviews related research, project methodology and Cairo’s refugee context. Then it attends to the two research themes, highlighting the role of information in refugee protection, the potential for new and old technologies to help, and the importance of attention to matters of clarity, language and audience.

Politics in the Sulu archipelago could be an unforeseen stumbling block for a negotiated peace with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the southern Philippines. So far the presumed spoilers have been Christian settlers, conservative nationalists, and recalcitrant members of the other insurgency in the Muslim south, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The islands off the coast of Mindanao have been all but forgotten. But the provincial governors of Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi, although Muslim, are wary of any agreement that would allow the MILF, dominated by ethnically distinct groups from Central Mindanao, to extend its sway and jeopardise the patronage system they enjoy with Manila. The challenge for the government of President Benigno Aquino III is to find a way to offer more meaningful autonomy to the MILF and overcome differences between the MILF and MNLF without alienating powerful clan leaders from the Sulu archipelago with a capacity to make trouble.

The Aquino government’s peace strategy is based on the principle of convergence, bringing three components together: a peace agreement with the MILF; reform of the dysfunctional government of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) which includes the three archipelagic provinces – Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi – as well as Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur in Central Mindanao; and review of the 1996 final peace agreement with the MNLF. The latter two components are more acceptable to the elite of the archipelago than the first. They see ARMM as a corrupt and unnecessary layer of bureaucracy and administration between them and Manila but as long as they have equal access to leadership positions, they are willing to try reform. From their perspective, the danger of a peace agreement with the MILF is that it would ultimately replace ARMM with a new, expanded, more powerful regional government that would favour Central Mindanao, the MILF’s stronghold, and its clans, over the archipelago and its politicians. At stake is access to power and money.